The performance of the Probation Service has worsened since it returned to public ownership with “significant” staff shortages and high workloads, a public spending watchdog has warned.
Targets met by HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) in 2024-25 dropped by 24 percentage points compared with levels seen in 2021-22, when the service was brought back under public control, according to a report by the National Audit Office (NAO).
The findings come at a time when ministers are seeking to release more offenders into the community under the supervision of probation officers, as part of reforms recommended by the independent sentencing review to end prison overcrowding.
The watchdog warned that the Government must fully understand and manage the risks of work under way to ease workload pressures on the Probation Service.
A programme to transform the service, which supervises and manages risks of criminals in the community, has been set up because of expectations that the sentencing reforms will increase pressures on probation further.
Head of the NAO, Gareth Davies, said: “A well-functioning Probation Service can ease the financial burden that reoffending imposes on society, which currently costs an estimated £21 billion a year.
“Since the service was brought back under full public control in June 2021, performance has declined, with significant staffing shortfalls and high workloads.”
The report published on Friday found the Probation Service “significantly underestimated” the number of staff it required for sentence management tasks by around a third last year, leaving it working with around half the number of officers needed for the role.
The Government has pledged to recruit 1,300 new probation officers by March 2026, and has committed an extra £700 million by 2028 for the Probation Service to back up the sentencing reforms.
But the report found that HMPPS estimates a shortfall of 3,150 full-time officers for sentence management for 2026-27 despite its recruitment drive.
The NAO also said efforts by the HMPPS to introduce major changes to curb issues over staff numbers and workload were slow and “have not been sufficient”.
Mr Davies described an initiative, Our Future Probation Service, introduced in February 2025 to reduce workloads by 25% as a “bold and innovative approach” to boost resilience.
The programme aims to improve existing ways of working and change the scope of probation supervision, such as which offender cohorts are supervised and for how long, with aims to create more capacity.
But Mr Davies added: “The Government must manage the risks associated with the programme to mitigate the impact on offenders’ chances of successfully rehabilitating in the community.”
On Thursday, Justice Secretary David Lammy announced more than 1,000 probation officers will now be equipped with an in-house AI tool that records and transcribes conversations with offenders to cut administrative work.
Reacting to the report, union Unison’s national officer for probation Ben Priestley said staff have known for years the service is on its knees as a result of a system that has been “stripped of local leadership and starved of investment”.
He said: “Government plans to expand community sentences will put even more pressure on probation workers, who already have unmanageable workloads.
“Ministers must honour their commitment to review the running of probation. That means taking the system out of the civil service and returning it to locally-accountable bodies.
“Otherwise, the public will be put at greater risk and staff will continue to suffer.”
A Ministry of Justice spokesman said the Government has inherited a Probation Service under “immense pressure” and that “we are fixing it” with the recruitment of 1,000 trainee probation officers last year and a further 1,300 more to be recruited by April.
The spokesman added: “We are also increasing the probation budget by an extra £700 million over the next three years and investing in new technology to reduce admin so staff can focus on work that reduces reoffending, helping to protect the public as part of our plan for change.”
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