As the season wraps up, regardless of who is in charge, pending unrestricted free agents will be trying to put as much good tape out there as possible.
They’ll be looking to earn as much money as possible on their future deal, along with setting themselves up with the best possible fit for them to continue producing.
The Patriots are expected to have around $100 million in cap space to spend in 2024, and they will likely want to add some outside talent to help fix one of the league’s worst offensive rosters.
Given their age and position, I have assumed Matthew Slater and Cody Davis will both retire. It’s also worth noting the Patriots will need to actually spend real dollars at the start of a new three-year period, per league rules. They can spend money now, in 2025 or 2026. But they need to spend real cap dollars to be compliant.
Here are each of the Patriots’ unrestricted free agents, and where I think they’ll land, as well as for how much.
Hunter Henry, TE
2023 Salary: $12.5 million
Age: 29
Hunter Henry was an electric addition coming from the Los Angeles Chargers in 2021. He signed a massive deal at the start of free agency with fellow tight end Jonnu Smith. The latter never worked out in New England, but it was a splash nonetheless as the Patriots looked to correct poor drafting at a high-valued position in the years prior.
Henry has been productive whenever the offense is rolling, and for that reason, I have him sticking around in 2024. He joined the team with many viewing him as an injury-prone tight end, but he has only missed one game since signing with the Patriots. And he has emerged as a leader in the locker room.
This is an expensive contract, but this one also has less guarantees with more money tied to incentives, as he will be under contract into his 30s.
Regardless of who the Patriots have at quarterback, offensive coordinator or even head coach, Henry is a valuable asset for any offense. When the team is actually competent, he is one of the game’s top-12 tight ends and a legitimate security blanket. With three tight ends set to hit free agency, locking up the best one is ideal.
Destination: Patriots
Contract: 3 years, $42m ($20m Guaranteed) – $14m AAV (Average Annual Value)
Trent Brown, OT
2023 Salary: $6.5 million
Age: 30
Trent Brown has seemingly punched his ticket out of New England. Brown has battled issues throughout his career with buying in. Quite frankly, he only performs well in contract years.
It doesn’t help matters that he also made comments that painted a picture of disdain for the current coaching structure in New England.
He can cash in for a tackle-needy team that just so happens to have the cap space and a run-first offense that would fit him well in free agency.
Destination: Tennessee Titans
Contract: 2 years, $34m ($20m Guaranteed)
Kendrick Bourne, WR
2023 Salary: $5 million
Age: 28
Kendrick Bourne is still the Patriots’ best receiver on the roster, but he suffered a torn ACL and will likely be done for quite some time. However, the Patriots will likely be looking to retain the talent they identified in 2021, and someone who is explosive with the ball in his hands.
They can retain him for cheap, with little to no money guaranteed on his 2024 contract, giving whoever is at quarterback a reliable target moving forward.
Destination: Patriots
Contract: 2 Years, $18m ($9m Guaranteed in 2025)
Mike Gesicki, TE
2023 Salary: $4.5 million
Age: 28
Gesicki was a hopeful signing, but with the offensive struggles as a whole, he never was able to get off the ground in New England as planned. He is not someone I could see wanting to, or even being asked to return in 2024.
The Panthers make sense as a team with a new regime, young quarterback and cap space to add a potentially high reward, low risk tight end in Gesicki.
Destination: Carolina Panthers
Contract: 1 year, $4m
Ezekiel Elliott, RB
2023 Salary: $12.5 million
Age: 28
Elliott has enough left in the tank to be a respected No. 2 to a workhorse back, and the Patriots need all the offensive talent they can get. I do not see Elliott commanding much more than the below contract, and the Patriots can make it fully guaranteed for one of their emerging team leaders on offense.
Elliott seems happy in New England, and if the offense gets back on track, he is refreshed enough to make an impact deep down the stretch.
Destination: Patriots
Contract: 2 years, $6m (fully guaranteed)
Jalen Mills, DB
2023 Salary: $3.75 million
Age: 29
Jalen Mills has been a sneaky important dirty work player for the Patriots’ secondary since coming over, but he has regressed since 2021 and is likely at the stage in his career where he would be latching on year after year to compete in camp.
The Steelers are a perfect spot, as Mills will be in position for good snaps and could be another veteran in that nasty defense.
Destination: Pittsburgh Steelers
Contract: 1 year, $2.5m
Myles Bryant, DB
2023 Salary: $2.6 million
Age: 25
Myles Bryant has been hated for years, but he has been one of the Patriots’ ironmen, rarely missing games and doing whatever the team asks. Not to mention, he is a fairly young player who has improved every year and can play multiple positions in the secondary.
Signing a good depth piece like Bryant is key to team building, especially for a team in need of depth, as Mills and Jonathan Jones are not the players they once were.
Destination: Patriots
Contract: 3 years, $15m ($7.5 guaranteed)
Kyle Dugger, S
2023 Salary: $2 million
Age: 27
Dugger is a Patriot fit through and through. However, if there is a new regime, he might be one player they let walk. The Patriots will have money to spend in the offseason, but they could choose to use that money to fill other areas on the roster.
Dugger has a chance of making real cash with a new team, and along with getting a bag, he’d be joining forces with Rams coach Sean McVay, which would be a nice change of scenery.
Destination: Los Angeles Rams
Contract: 4 years, $60m ($32m Guaranteed)
Mike Onwenu, OL
2023 Salary: $874,000
Age: 26
The Patriots let Trent Brown walk, and with no real options on the free agent market, and no young guns ready to take over, they pay real money to one of the game’s best lineman in Mike Onwenu, who has been a rock since being drafted in the sixth round in 2020.
Onwenu has positional versatility to play as a guard or tackle. Green Bay Packers guard Elgton Jenkins, who signed a four-year, $74 million contract last year, is a good comparison to Onwenu, who is a better player and younger.
With contracts continuing to go up everywhere, Onwenu would be locked in long-term to a Patriots team with very little long-term money anywhere. Ultimately, it’s a contract that will hardly hurt them in the long run.
Destination: Patriots
Contract: 5 years, $92.5m, ($50m guaranteed)
Josh Uche, EDGE
2023 Salary: $1.3 million
Age: 25
Despite not producing how he should have in 2023, teams will likely line up to pay good money to a pass-rusher that has looked good on tape. The Patriots can get ahead of them all with a solid enough offer, which could mean a slight overpay to put Uche in the middle of the pack of contracts for pass-rushers.
Uche will still be in line to test free agency, but he has slowly improved his run defense in 2023.
Destination: Patriots
Contract: 3 years, $36m ($20m Guaranteed)
Anfernee Jennings, EDGE
2023 Salary: $1.1 million
Age: 26
Anfernee Jennings is a criminally underrated defender. He has been one of the game’s more lethal run defenders at his position, and he is slowly finding his way as a pass-rusher. The Patriots need depth, and Jennings is a solid role player that is young enough to take another leap and be a significant part of the team’s future. A modest upgraded contract is fair here for Jennings with only $10 million guaranteed.
Destination: Patriots
Contract: 3 years, $21m ($10m Guaranteed)
Mack Wilson, LB
2023 Salary: $1.6 million
Age: 25
Mack Wilson Sr. has started to turn a corner as a depth piece and fringe role player. He has earned the right to have some teams vying for his services but for not much more than a flier. He should be able to return to New England for a team-friendly deal to continue his late development.
Destination: Patriots
Contract: 1 year, $3m
Pharaoh Brown, TE
2023 Salary: $1.08 million
Age: 29
Pharaoh Brown has been the second-best tight end on the Patriots’ roster, and he offers one thing the other two tight ends on the roster don’t offer: blocking.
Brown is someone with good size, hands and a high IQ. He should be someone the Patriots look to retain heading into the offseason.
I would like the Patriots to try and find a long-term upgrade at tight end over Henry and Brown, but having them both allows the team to truly develop a tight end, rather than forcing them in right away if they’re not ready. Brown is the perfect bridge tight end as the No. 2 guy.
Destination: Patriots
Contract: 1 year, $2.5m
