On Friday, Indian markets witnessed a sharp decline, with the Nifty slipping 1.5% to close at 23,547 amid broad-based profit booking, a sharp rise in the India VIX (+9.4%), and weakness across Metal and Oil & Gas stocks. The pressure intensified during the final hours of trade after the MSCI Global Standard Index rebalancing came into effect, triggering heightened volatility in select stocks amid expected passive fund flow adjustments and portfolio rebalancing activity.
Analysts say benchmark indices are likely to remain range-bound this week, although select midcap and smallcap stocks could continue to outperform on the back of healthy earnings momentum and strong domestic liquidity. Some relief has emerged in global market sentiment after reports suggested a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire, raising hopes of easing geopolitical tensions and gradual normalisation of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. However, investors are expected to remain cautious as mixed signals from the ongoing negotiations and recurring geopolitical flare-ups continue to keep volatility elevated across global financial markets.
STATE OF THE MARKETS
GIFT Nifty (Earlier SGX Nifty) signals a muted start
GIFT Nifty on the NSE IX traded higher by 15 points, or 0.06 per cent, at 23,705, signaling that Dalal Street was headed for a muted start on Monday.
- Tech View: On the downside, the correction may extend further in the near to short term, with the index potentially drifting towards the 23,250 mark and lower levels. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed near 23,700, and selling pressure is likely to persist as long as the index remains below this level.
- India VIX: India VIX, which is a measure of the fear in the markets, rose 8% to settle at 16.18 levels.
US stocks end higher
Wall Street's major indexes ended at record highs on Friday, capping a week and month of gains as strong results from Dell boosted technology stocks. Investor focus also remained on developments surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran agreement. President Donald Trump said he would make a final decision on the deal on Friday, while Tehran stressed that it was seeking concrete action rather than rhetoric.
Asian shares gain
Asian share markets firmed on Monday as the boom in all things AI continued to drive demand, offsetting a lack of progress in Gulf peace talks that challenged optimism on a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifted oil prices.
- S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 9:44 a.m. Tokyo time
- Hang Seng futures rose 0.4%
- Japan’s Topix was little changed
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2%
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.3%
Oil rises
Oil prices rose more than 2% in early trading on Monday after Israel ordered troops to move further into Lebanon in the battle with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group, despite a ceasefire announced more than six weeks ago.
Dollar steady
The U.S. dollar held steady on Monday after a weekly loss as markets awaited the results of peace talks in the Middle East and signals on the timing of central bank rate hikes.
Stocks in F&O ban today
NIL
Securities in the ban period under the F&O segment include companies in which the security has crossed 95% of the market-wide position limit.
Rupee
The Indian rupee jumped sharply on Friday to log its best single-day gain in nearly two months as likely intervention by the central bank converged with a drop in oil prices, which also briefly lifted the local currency above the 95/USD mark.
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