Analysts say markets are likely to remain event-driven in the near term, with volatility expected to persist amid elevated crude oil prices near $106 per barrel, continued weakening rupee (touched new low of 96.2 against the US dollar), rising bond yields and mounting inflationary concerns are collectively creating a challenging backdrop for domestic equities. While domestic earnings and economic activity remain relatively resilient, investors are increasingly concerned about the second-order impact of elevated energy prices on inflation, fiscal balances, liquidity conditions and the RBI’s future policy trajectory.
STATE OF THE MARKETS
GIFT Nifty (Earlier SGX Nifty) signals a positive start
GIFT Nifty on the NSE IX traded higher by 55.50 points, or 0.23 per cent, at 23,673, signaling that Dalal Street was headed for a positive start on Tuesday.
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Tech View: A decisive move above 23,650 could trigger a short-term rally towards 24,000 and higher levels. On the downside, immediate support is placed near 23,400. Stock-specific buying interest continues to remain visible, indicating selective strength in the broader market. However, sustained elevation in India VIX above 18.50 is likely to keep optimism in check and may continue to induce volatility in the near term.
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India VIX: India VIX, which is a measure of the fear in the markets, rose 5% to settle at 19.63 levels.
Nasdaq ends lower
The technology-heavy Nasdaq ended lower on Monday as investors locked in profits amid rising Treasury yields and elevated oil prices, which reignited fears that inflation and borrowing costs may remain higher for longer.
Asian shares gain
Oil dropped and Asian stocks edged up after President Donald Trump said he was holding off on fresh military strikes, boosting hopes for a deal that could end the war and revive energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
- S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 9:07 a.m. Tokyo time
- Hang Seng futures fell 0.2%
- Japan’s Topix rose 1.2%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1%
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.4%
Oil falls
Oil prices fell more than 2% in early Asian trade on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had paused a planned attack on Iran to allow for negotiations to end the war in the Middle East.
Gold steady
Gold held steady on Tuesday as the dollar weakened and crude oil prices fell after U.S. President Donald Trump paused a planned attack against Iran, easing concerns about inflation and prolonged high interest rates.
Dollar gains
The dollar found support at the start of Asian trading on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had paused a planned attack against Iran to allow negotiations and bond markets stabilised after a two-day selloff.
Stocks in F&O ban today
SAIL
Kaynes
Securities in the ban period under the F&O segment include companies in which the security has crossed 95% of the market-wide position limit.
FII/DII action
Foreign portfolio investors net bought shares worth Rs 2,814 crore on Monday. DIIs, meanwhile, were net sellers at Rs 2,682 crore.
Rupee
The Indian rupee weakened further and closed at a record low of 96.20 against the US dollar on Monday, pressured by rising crude oil prices on the back of ongoing geopolitical tensions and a strong dollar.
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