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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden (until 3.15) and Nick Fletcher

Microsoft to buy LinkedIn for $26bn in cash – as it happened

Jeff Weiner, CEO of LinkedIn (left) and chairman Reid Hoffman (right) with Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft (centre).
Jeff Weiner, CEO of LinkedIn (left) and chairman Reid Hoffman (right) with Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft (centre). Photograph: Microsoft

And finally, back to Microsoft’s proposed $26bn purchase of LinkedIn, and the hefty earnings multiple it is paying:

Meanwhile the deal could see increased competition for US group Salesforce, says Julia Langley, partner at advisory group Results International:

Microsoft’s core business is built around enterprise productivity software. They’ve been increasingly under threat from all sorts of players competing for pole position in this space.

Google and Facebook, two of the biggest tech companies in the world with strong consumer propositions have moved heavily into this enterprise area, with Facebook at Work and Google for Work.

Doing nothing was not an option for Microsoft, hence this massive, bold coup.

LinkedIn is one of the best new business/sales tools in the world of B2B and in many ways competes head on with Salesforce. When Microsoft integrates LinkedIn with its CRM suite, Dynamics, what you have is a hugely powerful tool that is truly differentiated and one that poses a real threat to Salesforce.

... If anyone is going to be feeling unnerved by the deal, it’s Salesforce. We should expect to see some sort of announcement from then in the months ahead.

On that note, it’s time to close for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.

Commenting on the growing lead for Brexit, Joshua Raymond of broker XTB.com said:

With the latest ICM poll showing support for a Brexit strengthening on both online and phone polls, investors continue to be concerned and are expected to downsize their positions in UK stocks and holdings in pounds sterling. The fact we are not seeing any degree of volatility in the latest polls, which all point to a healthy lead for the leave campaign is making investors risk averse.

And here is the latest ICM poll, showing the Leave campaign further in the lead. Tom Clarke reports:

Support for leaving the EU is strengthening, with both phone and online surveys reporting a six-point lead, according to a new pair of Guardian/ICM polls.

Leave now enjoys a 53%-47% advantage once “don’t knows” are excluded, according to the research conducted over the weekend compared with a 52%-48% split reported by ICM a fortnight ago.

The pound is down around 0.18% at $1.4221 following the poll news.

Updated

It took 14 years for LinkedIn to grow into a business worth $26bn to Microsoft, and my colleague Sean Farrell has taken a look at the company’s history:

European markets close lower

The $26bn deal for Microsoft to buy LinkedIn has done little to support stock markets, which are more concerned with a global slowdown and the consequences of the UK voting to leave the European Union. With talk of the latest ICM poll showing a lead for the Leave camp, markets have slumped once again. The final scores showed:

  • The FTSE 100 fell to its lowest level since March 10, down 70.79 points or 1.16% to 6044.97
  • Germany’s Dax dropped 1.8% to 9657.44
  • France’s Cac closed 1.85% lower at 4227.02

On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 64 points or 0.36%.

The pound, having slumped earlier and then recovered, has now slipped back again against the dollar, down marginally on the day from $1.4252 at $1.4240.

Updated

Chris Beauchamp, senior market analyst at IG, said:

Microsoft has clearly found another use for some of its cash, and while LinkedIn may have faded from view as the market focusses on the triumphs of Facebook and the travails of Twitter, the social network’s database offers a tantalising way to expand Microsoft’s reach once more. The use of debt rather than stock will reassure those that worry this is another sign of a market top, and will have the added benefit of raising the prospect of a buyer for Twitter.

In an email to LinkedIn employees, chief executive Jeff Weiner says the Microsoft deal is best for the company:

No matter what you’re feeling now, give yourself some time to process the news. You might feel a sense of excitement, fear, sadness, or some combination of all of those emotions. Every member of the exec team has experienced the same, but we’ve had months to process. Regardless of the ups and downs, we’ve come out the other side knowing beyond a shadow of a doubt, this is the best thing for our company.

He continues:

Some of you may be asking “Why Microsoft?”

Long before [Microsoft boss} Satya [Nadella] and I first sat down to talk about how we could work together, I had publicly shared my thoughts on how impressive his efforts were to rapidly transition Microsoft’s strategy and culture. After all, it’s extremely rare to see a company of that scope and scale move so quickly to make fundamental changes.

The Microsoft that has evolved under Satya’s leadership is a more agile, innovative, open and purpose-driven company. It was that latter point that first had me thinking we could make this work, but it was his thoughts on how we’d do it that got me truly excited about the prospect....

Essentially, we’re both trying to do the same thing but coming at it from two different places: For LinkedIn, it’s the professional network, and for Microsoft, the professional cloud.

[On the structure of the deal] I had no idea what Satya was going to propose, but knew how difficult acquisition integrations could be if not established the right way from the start.

Long story short, Satya had me at “independence.” In other words, his vision was to operate LinkedIn as a fully independent entity within Microsoft, a model used with great success by companies like YouTube, Instagram and WhatsApp.

Meanwhile back in the foreign exchange market, sterling has recovered all its losses ahead of the forthcoming ICM poll.

Despite the excitement about the $26bn deal for Microsoft to buy LinkedIn, the overall US market has failed to move into positive territory.

With worries about a global slowdown and the impact of a vote by the UK to leave the EU, the Dow Jones Industrial average has dipped 0.02%, Nasdaq is down 0.12% and the S&P 500 is 0.13% lower.

With Twitter shares up on speculation it could be the next to be snapped up after LinkedIn, some believe a deal could make sense. Saxo Bank head of equity Peter Garnry thinks Google could buy the business by the year end.

Twitter has 350 millions users, but it has been a problem for the company to grow its user base, he said. Nevertheless Twitter has managed to increase its cash flow profitability over the last 4-5 quarters and on a cashflow basis the company is improving rapidly. He said it had been difficult for Google to create a social media space stronghold and for that reason he thought Twitter would be a good fit for Google.

Updated

This deal even beats that $19bn which Facebook splashed out on WhatsApp in February 2014.....

Microsoft is getting the cash for this deal though issuing new debt, rather than tapping its own cash pile.

Why would it do that? Because it’s more tax efficient; Microsoft won’t have to repatriate any of the cash currently held offshore back into the US (where it would face higher taxes).

[Oxfam singled out Microsoft in a report condemning tax havens back in April]

Full story: LinkedIn bought by Microsoft for $26.2bn in cash

Here’s Alex Hern’s news story on the Microsoft-LinkedIn deal:

And here’s a flavour:

If the deal with Microsoft goes through as planned, Jeff Weiner, who joined LinkedIn in 2008 as the company’s president before becoming chief executive later that year, will stay on in his current role, reporting directly to Microsoft boss Satya Nadella.

In a statement, Nadella hinted at the competitive advantage he expects the network to provide for Microsoft. He said LinkedIn would pair well with the company’s business-focused software such as Office and customer relationship manager Dynamics.

LinkedIn shares soar, but Microsoft stumbles

A Wall Street street sign is on the facade of the New York Stock Exchange.

Over on Wall Street, LinkedIn shares have jumped by 47% to $193 in early trading.

That’s close to the $196 per shares which Microsoft is paying, suggesting the deal is expected to pass.

Microsoft’s shares have fallen by 4% – as explained earlier, that’s a typical reaction when a company announces a significant acquisition.

And this really is a significant deal, as the BBC’s Rory Cellan-Jones explains:

Social media is buzzing with reaction to Microsoft’s $26bn cash splurge acquisition:

LinkedIn gives Microsoft a serious presence in the business social networking business, says mobile analyst Ben Wood of CCS Insight:

Updated

Shares in Twitter are rallying in early trading; perhaps on speculation that it could now be snapped up.

This is Satya Nadella’s biggest deal since he replaced Steve Ballmer as Microsoft’s CEO in February 2014.

Nadella says he’s been thinking about buying LinkedIn for a while, and he’ll need to persuade analysts that it really makes sense, given the huge price tag.

It also dwarfs MS’s other recent deals - buying Nokia’s mobile phone business for $7bn in 2013, and online telephony firm Skype for $8.5bn in 2011.

The Nokia deal hasn’t been a great success, given Microsoft laid off 1,850 staff at its smartphone business last month.

The Economist’s Stanley Pignal is hoping that the deluge of LinkedIn notifications might now ease...

Augustin Eden at City firm Accendo Markets (who doesn’t sound like a great fan of LinkedIn) explains why Microsoft’s shares are likely to suffer today:

Shares in professional networking/dating/narcissism website LinkedIn are called to open around 40% higher at the US open after confirmation it has welcomed a mammoth takeover approach from Microsoft constituting a nigh on 50% premium over Friday’s share price close.

Shares in Microsoft were understandably suspended from trading in the lead-up to this bit of news, given that the traditional reaction to such an announcement often involves a shareholder exodus from the predator. With this deal lightening Microsoft’s coffers to the tune of $26bn, make that an exodus of biblical proportions.

Today’s announcement is full of cheerful quotes justifying the deal. Here’s a selection:

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella:

“The LinkedIn team has grown a fantastic business centered on connecting the world’s professionals.

Together we can accelerate the growth of LinkedIn, as well as Microsoft Office 365 and Dynamics as we seek to empower every person and organization on the planet.”

LinkedIn CEO Jeff Weiner:

Just as we have changed the way the world connects to opportunity, this relationship with Microsoft, and the combination of their cloud and LinkedIn’s network, now gives us a chance to also change the way the world works.

LinkedIn chairman Reid Hoffmann

Today is a re-founding moment for LinkedIn. I see incredible opportunity for our members and customers and look forward to supporting this new and combined business.

I fully support this transaction and the Board’s decision to pursue it, and will vote my shares in accordance with their recommendation on it.

Updated

LinkedIn shareholders will be celebrating tonight....

Guys, there’s only one joke about this deal...and it’s been done. Many times....

Tech analyst Amir Mizroch explains the motivation behind the deal:

Microsoft and LinkedIn have released a short video about the deal.

In it, MS CEO Satya Nadella talks about his “great admiration for LinkedIn”.... and explained that his vision is to combine LinkedIn’s productivity and communication tools with Microsoft’s professional network.

Cue uplifting talk about “enhancing” people’s professional lives and “empowering” them to do better - either in their current job or the next one....

Video: Satya Nadella and Jeff Weiner on Microsoft acquiring LinkedIn

He’s been tweeting that message too:

Updated

Microsoft shares tumble 5%

Shares in Microsoft have slid by 5% in pre-market trading, as investors react to the news it’s paying $26bn for LinkedIn.

The Wall Street Journal’s Dennis Berman argues that LinkedIn has capitulated, by selling out to Microsoft.

Walking away with $26bn (or £18.5bn) ) is one heck of a capitulation, though....

This deal values each of LinkedIn’s 433 million users at $60 each, points out Reuters’ Peter Thal Larsen:

Some users may be worth less....

Updated

Microsoft has swooped on LinkedIn four months after the company shocked Wall Street by missing its revenue forecasts.

Back in February, LinkedIn revealed that its online ad revenue growth had slowed to 20% in the fourth quarter from 56% a year earlier.

Financial analysts raced to downgrade LinkedIn, warning that the company’s period of rapid growth was over.

For example:

RBC analysts said they had thought LinkedIn was on the cusp of “fundamentally positive” change. “We were wrong,” they said in a client note.

That helped to send LinkedIn’s shares down around 40%, and laying the ground for Microsoft to strike a deal.

Microsoft to buy LinkedIn

Some big breaking news in the tech sector - Microsoft, the software giant, is buying business social network site LinkedIn for more than $26bn.

The deal, just announced, values LinkedIn at $196 per share - or almost 50% above Friday night’s close of $131.

Here’s the announcement.

Microsoft to buy LinkedIn./

The deal comes five years after LinkedIn floated at $45 per share. But they were trading at $270 in 2015.

More to follow.....

Updated

Chancellor George Osborne

While we wait for ICM to deliver their poll, let’s hear a few words from George Osborne.

The chancellor has just been interviewed by Bloomberg, and urged business leaders to back the Remain campaign.

Osborne argues:

“People who are concerned or businesses who are concerned or investors who are concerned about the prospect of Britain leaving the EU should speak up.

This is not the moment for businesses to sit it out.”

Some firms have already piled into the fray.

Telecoms group BT has already written to its staff, explaining why it believes Britian should stay in the EU.

But Sir James Dyson, the billionaire inventor, is backing the Leave campaign, and slamming warnings that Britain would be locked out of international markets.

The US stock market is expected to dip when trading begins in 90 minutes time.

That follows today’s losses in Europe, and the big selloff in Asia overnight.

ICM would like everyone to relax until they have finished working on their poll with, ummm, my colleague Tom Clark....

Hmmmm. No sign of that ICM Referendum poll yet.

And its website has just crashed under the weight of web traffic looking for it....

Updated

City traders are bracing for fresh volatility, as polling company ICM is expected to release a new survey at 12.30pm BST.

Updated

Another sign of European Brexit fears:

Barings are also worried that Brussels would not cut Britain a generous deal if the public vote to leave the EU.

They write:

Post-Brexit concessions to the UK would send the wrong signal to other EU countries where nationalistic movements are growing. This could result in a political chain-reaction that could easily trigger a series of national referendums in numerous member countries.

In terms of financial commitments, if the UK leaves the EU, it would save around £10 billion in net contributions.

The government would, however, be likely to need to step in to help sectors and regions which would stop receiving European structural funds, and which could be disproportionately affected by tariffs on trade. It is also not yet known what level of payment would be required to permit the UK business sector to access the 500 million people living in the EU.

Barings: Brexit could wipe 20% off the pound

£20 notes

How badly could the pound be hit by a victory for Brexit campaigners?

Well...economists at Barings Asset Management predict this morning that sterling could slump by a fifth!

They point out that Britain is running a huge current account deficit, due to importing far more than it exports. It could widen further if Britain were to leave the single market, and be unable to sell services to the EU.

And that would send the pound sliding hard, probably driving inflation sharply higher.

Barings, who warn that Brexit would be likely to be highly damaging to the UK economy, explain:

Practically, the mechanism through which capital flows will need to be attracted into the UK has to be through a cheaper sterling.

There has not been an exact match for this event in the past, but previous times of stress have seen sterling depreciate by 15% to 20% on a trade-weighted basis. Research we have seen suggests that sterling could have to weaken by 25% to 30% in the event of Brexit, to continue to attract capital flows, slow imports and boost exports for the UK economy.

However, sterling would not be alone. We would also expect the euro to decline in the uncertain aftermath of a vote in favour of Brexit, although sterling would be likely to be the weaker of the two.

Of course, such profound currency depreciation would also have consequences for the UK economy. It would be highly inflationary. In turn, this would present the Bank of England with a particular dilemma; whether to raise interest rates to control inflation and risk slowing the UK economy, or do nothing, look through and see inflation rise by as much as 4% or 5%.

Updated

Deutsche: London shares might benefit from Brexit

Ironically, the London stock markets is suffering less of a selloff than the rest of Europe today.

The FTSE is currently down 31 points, or 0.5%, while French stock are down a whopping 1.4%.

And that’s because analysts believe British companies will benefit from a weaker pound. It would make exporters more competitive, and boost earnings in foreign currencies.

Pharmaceutical giant Glaxo and tobacco firms BAT and Imperial are thus among the risers today.

Deutsche Bank analysts are advising buying London stocks, rather than the German equivalent.

In the case of a Leave vote in the UK referendum (a scenario to which bookmakers’ odds attribute a 30% probability), we expect UK equities to outperform the European market, given the likely depreciation of the pound in such a scenario as well as the market’s defensive sector structure.

Deutsche Bank research note

However.... UK companies won’t benefit if the Bank of England is forced to hike interest rates to prevent a sterling crisis.

Updated

Brexit fears have rippled as far as Prague.

The Czech Republic’s main stock market has fallen 2% today, to its lowest level in seven years. And next week’s EU referendum is, apparently, partly to blame.

Analysts at Pekao, a Polish bank, told clients that:

“High probability of Brexit (Britain leaving the European Union) remains the biggest short-term risk.”

The pound is hitting fresh two-month lows, as investors react to the tightening of the EU referendum race.

Sterling is now down one cent against the US dollar at $1.4137, and more than eurocent against the euro at €1.254.

And with stock markets still in the red, Joshua Mahony of firm IG says investors are worrying about Brexit, China’s slowing economy and the possibility of US interest rate rises this year,

Even if we manage to navigate the near term threats of a Brexit and a likely US rate hike, the continued slowdown in China will provide a remains a significant ongoing risk to global demand.

It is clear that in a week which is relatively light on economic data, the focus will remain on the risk of a Brexit, which could destabilise not only the future of England, but also the European project as a whole.

Reuters’ Jemima Kelly flags up the latest odds:

The flag of Japan

In another sign of global anxiety, Fitch has just cut the outlook on Japan’s credit rating to negative, from stable.

Fitch left Japan’s rating at A (only the sixth-highest level), but warned that it is losing faith in its government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation.

Tokyo has just postponed plans to raise the sales tax, and could be forced into launching another stimulus package to spur growth.

Brexit odds are being cut

City firm ETX Capital believes there is a growing chance that Britain votes to leave the EU, given the latest polling.

Joe Rundle, their head of trading, explains:

Momentum is behind the Vote Leave camp as polls seem to show more support for Brexit than at any point in the campaign so far.

We’ve seen heavy selling and shortened our Brexit market price from over 80% - implying a one-in-five chance of Britain leaving the EU – to 66%, which indicates a one-in-three chance of Brexit.

Betfair, the online gambling company, also reports that more money is being wagered on Brexit. It now estimates there is a 34% chance of the Leave campaign winning, based on betting patterns.

Investors have also been dizzied by the flurry of opinion polls, which have shown the vote is tight:

Sterling volatility hits record highs

The cost of insuring against the pound tumbling against the euro over the next month has hit a record high this morning.

Reuters explains:

Euro/sterling one-month implied volatility, derived from an option that covers the June 23 referendum date and its aftermath, hit 26.3% according to Reuters data, exceeding the previous record of around 25% hit during the global financial crisis in 2008.

The equivalent sterling/dollar one-month implied volatility also rocketed to 28.1%, close to its 2008 peak of around 29%.

Euro/sterling volatility
Euro/sterling volatility since the single currency was created Photograph: Thomson Reuters

London market hit by Brexit worries

UK chip-maker ARM is the biggest faller in London this morning, along with financial stocks and miners.

ARM is being hit by fears that a global downturn would hurt demand for its semiconductors, helping to drag the FTSE 100 down to a three-week low.

UK banks are suffering from concerns over the EU vote, as Conner Campbell of SpreadEx explains:

The markets got off to a dreadful start this Monday....

A healthy dose of drag from the Brexit-fearing banking stocks (especially Barclays and Lloyds) is adding to the FTSE 100’s losses.

With the referendum growing ever closer the pound is all set for an ugly week and a half, something immediately in evidence this morning. Cable [£/$] collapsed by another half a percent, leaving sterling at its lowest point against the dollar in 2 months, with a similar pattern occurring against the euro and a whole basket of currencies.

The biggest fallers in London this morning
The biggest fallers in London this morning Photograph: Thomson Reuters

This chart shows how the London stock market has dropped back to its recent lows:

The London stock market is now at its lowest level since May 20.

The FTSE 100 has lost 200 points since last Wednesday; today’s selloff, plus the heavy losses on Thursday and Friday, have wiped out the gains of the last three weeks.

European markets are falling

As feared, European markets are falling at the start of trading.

London’s FTSE 100 has already shed 43 points, or 0.7%. There are deeper losses across the channel, with the French CAC down 1% and Germany’s DAX losing 1.2%.

Brexit is obviously a factor, as is new data showing Chinese investment growth hitting a 10-year low.

Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets says that “risk aversion” is rife this morning:

Investors continue to fret over global growth with China weekend data failing to inspire and the IMF sounding the alarm (again) over a Chinese corporate debt bubble.

Anxiety persists about the risks of a UK vote to leave the EU (Brexiety?) and traders prepare themselves for a hat-trick of central bank updates this week - from the US Federal Reserve (Wednesday), the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England (both on Thursday).

Pound hits two-month low

The pound is sliding against other major currencies this morning, as worries about a possible Brexit take hold.

Sterling hit a two-month low against the US dollar in early trading, losing 0.5% or 0.7 of a cent to $1.4182, a drop of 0.7 of a cent.

The pound against the US dollar
The pound against the US dollar Photograph: Thomson Reuters

This adds to Friday’s tumble, which wiped two cents off the pound.

Sterling has also hit a six-week low against the euro, at €1.2592, as traders bail out of sterling.

Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, reckons the pound may drop further this week:

“Ahead of the referendum, many look for sterling to underperform and the yen and Swiss franc to outperform,”

“The euro and central and eastern European currencies are vulnerable, while risk assets, in general, are expected to weaken on a Brexit victory,.”

Asian stock markets have already suffered chunky losses overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei tumbling by 3.5%.

Worries over the global economy, and Britain’s EU referendum, also sent China’s stock market down 2% and wiped almost 1% off the Australia market.

The main Asian stock markets this morning
The main Asian stock markets this morning

Analysts at RBS Capital Markets say:

The market opened in Asia in the same spirit as it closed on Friday: equity markets were under heavy pressure losing more than 2% across the board

Money has poured into the Japanese yen, as investors flee shares and the pound in favour of safe-haven assets. That has hit Japan’s exporters, who are already vulnerable to a slowdown in global growth.

And investors expect more swings this week. Here’s our latest story on the markets:

Updated

The agenda: Brexit fears loom over the City

Skyscrapers in the City of London.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Hold onto your hats. Investors are starting the week in gloomy mood, which means we’re going to see fresh falls on the European stock markets when trading begins.

The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares is expected to shed 1%, or 61 points, when the markets open. That adds to Friday’s 116-point tumble, which wiped out around £17bn of value.

With Britain’s EU referendum just 10 days away, traders are increasingly jump about the prospect of a Brexit. That’s weighing on the pound, which is losing ground this morning as opinion polls show the race is still very close.

The markets are also anxious about the state of the global economy, which looks bruised even without the shock of a Brexit.

America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, meets to set interest rates this week. Few traders expect a hike at this meeting, but they are nervous that the Fed could still raise rates too quickly.

Kit Juckes, currency expert at French bank Société Générale, explains why the City is so jittery:

If the global economy does not slide towards recession, the Fed will eventually raise rates (timidly). That’s the best-case scenario, one in which oil-sensitive currencies can gain, but China-sensitive ones will struggle.

The risk is that growth slows more sharply in China, causing capital to take fright. Pity the currencies of nations with big current account deficits then [such as the UK]. There are other dangers lurking too, like the UK referendum, the US presidential election and rising anti-European sentiment into the 2017 elections.

So, lots to worry about today.....

Updated

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