The marble halls of the Vatican are fairly buzzing with intrigue. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Church's chief diplomat, has emerged as the man to beat in Catholicism's ultimate power contest – the race to claim the Chair of St Peter.
Bookmakers have now installed Parolin as one of four frontrunners to don the white cassock when the time eventually comes, a development being watched with keen interest by Catholics worldwide and Vatican-watchers of every stripe.
The Power Behind The Papal Throne
At 69, the silver-haired Italian has spent years as Vatican Secretary of State – effectively the Pope's prime minister – quietly building alliances and demonstrating the diplomatic skills that have made him such a formidable presence in ecclesiastical circles.
'Parolin's rather brilliant at being all things to all cardinals,' confided a monsignor. 'He's never openly broken with Francis on progressive reforms, yet somehow reassures traditionalists he won't rock the boat too violently. That's no small feat in today's Church.'
His resume is impeccable. From navigating the diplomatic minefield of Vatican-China relations to managing tensions with conservative American Catholics, Parolin has handled the thorniest issues with characteristic sangfroid. More importantly, he's cultivated relationships with cardinal-electors across the globe – the sort of connections that could prove decisive when votes are cast beneath Michelangelo's masterpiece.
The world's focus remains on this papal selection, given its power to direct the path of a Christian faith followed by over 1.2 billion people. Choosing the new pope means setting the course for church teachings and resolving internal disagreements, with a clear divide between reformers and traditionalists. Issues of clear communication, church management, and the struggle to blend tradition with modern needs add to the election's importance.
Voices On The Vatican Vote
As US President Donald Trump prepared for his Michigan trip, journalists inquired about the upcoming papal selection process and his desired candidate. 'I'd like to be pope,' Trump said.
I was excited to hear that President Trump is open to the idea of being the next Pope. This would truly be a dark horse candidate, but I would ask the papal conclave and Catholic faithful to keep an open mind about this possibility!
— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) April 29, 2025
The first Pope-U.S. President combination has… pic.twitter.com/MM9vE5Uvzb
'That would be my number one choice. No, I don't know, I have no preference...I must say we have a cardinal [Timothy Dolan, who has been the archbishop of New York since 2009] that happens to be out of a place called New York, who's very good. So, we'll see what happens,' the president added.
Trump And Cardinal Dolan On The Conclave
Reflecting on the current situation, Cardinal Timothy Dolan recalled, 'I was honoured to participate in the conclave that elected Pope Francis in 2013, and to have welcomed him here to New York in 2015,' as reported by Newsweek.
'He touched us all with his simplicity, with his heart of a humble servant. Trusting in the tender and infinite mercy of Jesus, we pray that he is, even now, enjoying his eternal reward in heaven. Eternal rest grant unto him, O Lord, and let perpetual light shine upon him. May his soul, and the souls of all the faithful departed, rest in peace,' Cardinal Dolan said, as per Newsweek.
As global attention remains fixed on the Catholic Church's future, an age-old practice has resurfaced with a modern twist: placing bets on who will be the next pope.
Placing Bets On The Pontiff
Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has captured worldwide attention by offering odds on who will become the next pope after Pope Francis's death on 21 April at the age of 88.
BREAKING: Cardinal Pietro Parolin is the frontrunner to succeed Pope Francis as leader of the Catholic Church.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) April 21, 2025
See the full list of candidates & realtime papacy odds, only on Polymarket 👇
The crypto-powered prediction platform indicates that Cardinals Pietro Parolin, Luis Antonio Tagle, Peter Turkson, and Matteo Zuppi are currently leading the papal contest.
4. Matteo Zuppi
Since 12 December, 2015, Matteo Maria Zuppi has been the Archbishop of Bologna. This Italian prelate of the Catholic Church is also listed in fourth place on Polymarket's 'Who will be the next Pope?' bet, with odds suggesting a 13% chance.
None on this video … where’s Cardinal Matteo Zuppi?! Our Next Pope (speaking it into existence) 🕊️ pic.twitter.com/P4kPzI7vZQ
— LAKER GIRL (@LakersJo) April 27, 2025
According to the College of Cardinals Report, born in Rome on 11 October 1955, Cardinal Zuppi has experienced a swift ascent within the Italian episcopate. This Italian prelate, situated on the Church's left political spectrum, would probably continue the direction set by Pope Francis, albeit with considerable input from the Sant'Egidio lay community, to which he is closely linked.
3. Peter Turkson
Following closely in the betting stakes on Polymarket is Cardinal Peter Turkson, the 72-year-old from Ghana, currently holding 18% of the wagers. Should he be chosen as the next pope, the Standard reports that he would mark a historic moment as the first African pontiff in 1,500 years.
Peter Turkson. 👀 pic.twitter.com/3xJ1ehWSJW
— Pierre Davide Borrelli (@PierreDavideB) April 26, 2025
This isn't Cardinal Turkson's first brush with papal consideration. He was appointed Ghana's first cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003 and was a leading candidate during the 2013 conclave that elected Pope Francis. Though a frontrunner then, he was ultimately passed over. Now, his name resurfaces as a prominent papal possibility.
2. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, currently holding the second-highest chance of succeeding Pope Francis with 21% of the bets on Polymarket, is often called the 'Asian Francis' due to his strong commitment to social justice. According to the DailyBeast report, the 76-year-old would be the first pope from Asia.
Here is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle dancing at the 2018 pre-synodal meeting with young people in Łódź, Poland. He is one of the leading candidates to become the next pope: pic.twitter.com/dgG3s9GaiZ
— Wojciech Pawelczyk (@WojPawelczyk) April 23, 2025
1. Pietro Parolin
According to Polymarket's 'Who will be the next Pope?' section, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin is currently the frontrunner, with a 24% chance of being elected. The 70-year-old Vatican Secretary of State since 2013 is also known as the 'deputy pope' and is considered a moderate choice, according to the Daily Beast.
Born on 17 January 1955 in Schiavon, a town within the province and Diocese of Vicenza in Northern Italy, Cardinal Pietro Parolin felt a calling to the priesthood from a young age, entering the seminary in Vicenza at just fourteen.
Latest picture just released by the Vatican. Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin praying by the coffin of Pope Francis. @EWTNews Picture: Vatican Media pic.twitter.com/xzX261QX7G
— Colm Flynn (@colmflynnire) April 22, 2025
According to the College of Cardinals Report, Pietro Parolin has earned a strong reputation among secular diplomats as a reliable and respected papal figure in international relations. Many observe a career trajectory akin to that of Pope St. Paul VI, who also had a diplomatic background.
The Next Pope
The next pope will inherit a Catholic Church experiencing perhaps its deepest divisions since the Reformation. Bitter theological battles rage between progressive Catholics energised by Francis's more inclusive approach and traditionalists who fear the Church is sacrificing eternal truths on the altar of contemporary relevance.
Originally published on IBTimes UK
