Polymarket has relaunched in the United States with CFTC approval and a regulated betting app, with a market about Google’s most-searched person in 2025 going viral for potential insider involvement.
Polymarket Re-enters The U.S. Market
Polymarket's relaunch marks its first U.S. return since a 2022 enforcement action that forced the platform to shut out American users.
The CFTC previously determined that the company operated unregistered event-based derivatives, leading to a $1.4 million settlement and a ban on serving domestic customers.
The firm later acquired a regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse to meet compliance standards.
It secured a no-action letter in September 2024, paving the way for a supervised comeback under federal oversight.
Polymarket said its iOS rollout begins with sports markets.
Android support will follow, and the platform plans to open proposition and election markets after the initial launch.
The company described its roadmap as a long-term plan to offer "markets on everything."
Prediction Markets Enter A Competitive Phase
The relaunch comes during renewed interest in U.S. prediction markets.
Kalshi raised $1 billion in new capital this year at an $11 billion valuation, strengthening its advantage in regulated forecasting markets.
Analysts estimate Polymarket could reach a $10 billion to $15 billion valuation as trading activity increases.
Token Terminal data shows Kalshi processing $4.4 billion in trading volume in October, while Polymarket handled more than $3 billion.
Interest in election forecasting and real-time event markets drove a large share of the 2024 gains, while growing crossover from Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and crypto-native capital flows continues to support liquidity across prediction platforms.
Major players are also building their own platforms, as Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) is developing a prediction product tied to Kalshi's infrastructure.
Trump-backed Truth Social said it plans to add prediction markets as part of its expansion into financial tools.
Insider Traders Capture Massive Wins During Viral Market Surge
The platform's comeback coincides with a wave of high-stakes activity that went viral across social media.
A prominent Polymarket account known as AlphaRaccoon placed millions of dollars in bets tied to Google Search trends.
Public on-chain data shows the trader deposited $3 million last week and began accumulating large positions across multiple markets linked to the "Year in Search" rankings.
The largest win came from a position against Pope Francis and Bianca Censori in the "most searched person" market.
The trader also bought early exposure to the winning outcome, singer d4vd, who traded near 5 cents when the positions were placed.
Observers estimate the account earned more than $1 million across the combined markets.
Another post on X pointed out that a different account had earned more than $100,000 on a Gemini market, underscoring how multiple traders executed aggressive capital deployments on the platform.
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