An opinion poll in the Daily Telegraph confirms (registration needed) what most people have known for months: David Davis is the favourite to become the next Conservative leader. The shadow home secretary is the first or second choice of 54% of Tory party members, and (more importantly if the membership loses its say in the election) 36% of Tory voters, according to YouGov.
The poll is a big blow to Kenneth Clarke's chances of taking over from Michael Howard. The former chancellor's supporters have always argued that while many Tory MPs and party members find his pro-European views unpalatable, he remains the party's biggest asset to the electorate at large. With only 23% of Tory voters backing him for leader, that argument is hard to sustain.
The shadow foreign secretary, Liam Fox, and shadow work and pensions secretary, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, also do badly in the poll. Having both held high-profile roles (party co-chairman and foreign secretary respectively), they will be particularly disappointed by their poor showing among Tory voters.
After Mr Davis, the Tories' education spokesman, David Cameron, comes best out of the poll. Some 30% of party members regard him as their first or second choice for the leadership, as do 15% of Tory voters - a surprisingly high proportion considering he has only just been given a high-profile job. The leadership election is not until winter: he has time to convince people of his merits.
