On Tuesday night the Republicans took back control of Congress.
Here are seven things you need to know about the vote.
1. A Republican landslide in the Senate
The Republicans needed a net gain of six seats to win a majority in the Senate. The GOP took seven seats from the Democrats and retained all the seats they were defending. The party is set to add Alaska to their tally, and will probably also win the runoff vote in Louisiana, bringing the total gains to nine.
The Democrats should hold on to Virginia, meaning the composition of the new Senate should end up being 54-46 in the Republicans’ favour.
In every midterm but three since 1862, the party that controls the White House has lost seats. To make matters even more difficult for Democrats, six of the 21 seats the party was defending were in states President Obama lost twice.
It would be limiting to dismiss the size of the Republicans’ win as down to the “map”. Over the past 21 years, the party of the incumbent president has lost, on average, four Senate seats during the midterms. Once all the counting is complete, the Republicans will gain nine from the Democrats. They retained all the seats they were defending, and in most states outperformed the polls. Against the forecasts, the GOP kept Kansas, took North Carolina, and the vote in Virginia was so unexpectedly close that a winner has yet to be officially declared.
However you slice and dice the numbers (you can do so in great detail here), the result looks like a Republican wave.
2. As does the House
In the House, once all the results are in, the Republicans are set for 250 seats – the largest GOP majority since the 1928 elections when they controlled 270 seats.
The map paints a clear picture:
3. The gubernatorial results produced slightly more mixed signals
Inthe gubernatorial races, the Democrats can find a few bright spots in Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Colorado, but losses in Massachusetts, Maine, Illinois and Maryland bear bad news. It’s not all smiles for the Republicans, though – Governor Sean Parnell is trailing independent Bill Walker in Alaska.
In King County, Texas, Wendy Davis received one vote.
In perhaps the most Republican county in America, Wendy Davis finished in third and received one vote pic.twitter.com/EoAG5eyeB3
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 5, 2014
4. Progress
Still low, but a few steps in the right direction:
There are 100 women in Congress for the first time ever http://t.co/vnCKWcekMC
— Josh Levin (@josh_levin) November 5, 2014
Rhode Island elects its first female governor, Gina Raimondo (D) http://t.co/f7vXkYZi1b pic.twitter.com/zLELXcSXCX
— ⒜⒧⒧⒤⒮⒪⒩ ⒨⒞⒞⒜⒩⒩ (@atmccann) November 5, 2014
And:
Tim Scott becomes first black senator elected in south since Reconstruction http://t.co/GupmnBT3RC
— Katharine Viner (@KathViner) November 5, 2014
5. Some things never change
George P. Bush elected as Texas Land Commissioner. #Election2014
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) November 5, 2014
11% George, 100% Bush pic.twitter.com/IWcpawbuw9
— Mona Chalabi (@MonaChalabi) November 5, 2014
6. The other votes
Voters in five states endorsed minimum wage increases: Alaska, Arkansas, Illinois, Nebraska and South Dakota.
Voters in Oregon, Alaska and Washington DC voted in favour of pro-marijuana legislation. A vote in Florida fell short of the 60% required to pass.
In Washington state, voters supported a measure to expand background checks for gun sales.
In Colorado, voters rejected a proposal to add “unborn human beings” to the state’s criminal code, and in North Dakota, voters rejected a “right-to-life” state constitutional amendment.
7. What does last night tell us about 2016?
Not much.
Midterm electorates tend to be whiter, older and smaller in number than voters at presidential elections. Voter turnout is estimated at less than 40%, which would be low even by midterm standards.
President Obama’s ratings remain poor, the Republicans performed strongly in places that can hardly be defined as red states, and the Democrats should especially be concerned about their numbers in the south, but even when all this is considered, the results will be more about politics and morale than providing an early indication of the next presidential election. It will be a different ball game in 2016. Even when it comes to Congress, in the same way Tuesday’s map helped the Republicans, the Democrats will be aided in the next electoral cycle when the GOP will have a greater number of seats to defend.
For now, we know this: it was a Republican wave, but how far it will carry the GOP remains unknown.
