Despite the escalating trade brawl between the US and China, the government and private sectors remain upbeat about the country's export prospects this year.
The Commerce Ministry said yesterday it expects exports could grow beyond the 8% threshold to at least 9% this year, while the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) raised its export growth estimate to 7-10% this year from 5-8%.
Separately, the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) still maintains its 8% export growth projection, although it said the US-China trade dispute remains a key risk.
Sakon Varanyuwatana, vice-minister for commerce, said Thai exports could outperform the 8% growth target set by the Commerce Ministry because of the weaker baht and the ministry's ongoing efforts to promote shipments to new markets such as India, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, Russia and Africa offer additional positive factors.
The government's accelerated talks to stimulate free trade pacts and bilateral strategic partnerships will also give a boost to the export sector.
"Even if we had a trade war, Thai exports are unlikely to be affected much," he said. "Only products in the supply chain will be hit."
Predee Daochai, chairman of the Thai Bankers' Association, who chaired the JSCCIB meeting yesterday, said the impact of global trade protectionism on Thai exports should be limited this year.
"A trade war between the US and China may have some impact on Thailand, but not much this year, as global economic growth continues to support Thai shipments," he said.
Mr Predee said the group is keeping an eye on global risks that may affect the Thai export sector, including capital outflows after the US Federal Reserve raises its key interest rate by 25 basis points to between 1.75% and 2%.
The JSCCIB yesterday raised its economic growth estimate to 4.3-4.8% this year, up from its earlier prediction of 4-4.5%, citing growing exports, strong tourism and new investment.
Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairwoman of the TNSC, said although the escalating trade row has yet to affect Thai exports much this year, the government should move forward on tapping into new export markets.
A group of exporters also urged the government to rev up bilateral and multilateral trade cooperation, particularly through trade agreements with Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey and the EU, as well as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
"We believe the impact on Thailand's overall exports is still limited this year, as most large-scale purchase orders have been made in advance until year-end," she said.
"We are closely watching exports, particularly goods impacted by the global supply chain and goods that fail to enter both the US and China because of higher tariffs by the two economies."
