RECAP: Asian equity prices fell on Friday as world markets faced a perfect storm of $100 oil prices, resurgent Middle East fighting and worries about the AI investment boom.
Thai equities staged a slight pullback on Friday as foreign inflows and strong performances in energy-related stocks offset negative sentiment from Mideast stress.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,622.59 and 1,657.55 points this week, before closing on Friday at 1,644.39, up 0.3% from the previous week, with heavy daily turnover averaging 93.98 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 4.51 billion baht, followed by foreign investors at 3.15 billion and brokerage firms at 1.29 billion. Institutional investors were net sellers of 8.96 billion.
NEWSMAKERS: The United States has announced new tariffs on 60 trading partners for not doing enough to combat the use of forced labour, with Thailand assigned a 12.5% rate, replacing a 10% global duty rolled out earlier this year.
President Donald Trump said generic drugs imported into the US would face zero tariffs for two years starting Aug 1, before a 100% levy takes effect in 2028 and rises to 200% a year later, with an aim of accelerating "reshoring" of pharmaceutical manufacturing.
Trump imposed new 50% tariffs on many Canadian goods, claiming "discriminatory treatment" by Ottawa against American alcohol, automobile and dairy products.
Brent oil rose above $100 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since May 25, after Iran-backed Houthi fighters attacked Saudi oil tankers and threatened to block a key oil export channel in the Red Sea.
Iran attacked an Amazon data centre in Bahrain, while Saudi Arabia began facing problems exporting oil through the Red Sea.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said his country was willing to negotiate an end to the war on Iran but accused Tehran of not being "serious" about talks.
Mediators, including Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and Oman, have proposed a 10-day ceasefire to halt the cycle of retaliation, reopen shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate the restoration of the June memorandum to halt fighting.
The Chinese government reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the economy to keep growth within the target range of 4.5% to 5% after GDP growth slowed to 4.3% in the second quarter, down from 5% in the first.
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, pausing after June's first hike in three years, as easing inflation bought policymakers time to monitor conditions.
Economists say the Bank of Japan might accelerate rate hikes after the yen weakened to a 39-year low of 163 per US dollar amid heightened inflation risks, fuelling short-term exchange-rate volatility across Asia.
New UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has pledged strict fiscal discipline, promising to balance public finances while launching cost-of-living relief.
Nvidia said it has taken a 9.3% stake in the Dutch "neocloud" (specialised AI cloud services) provider Nebius, whose shares rose 19% on the news.
Hyundai Motor reported a 21% fall in second-quarter operating profit, missing analysts' estimates, as weaker vehicle sales, production disruptions and higher costs outweighed support from a weaker won.
Indian billionaire Gautam Adani is reportedly considering launching a new airline, a move that could potentially reshape competition in a market dominated by IndiGo and Air India.
EU regulators hit Google with a $1-billion fine for undercutting competition through its search dominance. Trump has threatened to retaliate against what he views as the unfair targeting of American tech companies.
Google parent Alphabet said revenue for the quarter to June totalled $119.8 billion, up 24% from a year earlier. Profit quadrupled to $112.1 billion, boosted by investments in other AI-related companies like SpaceX and Anthropic.
Tesla reported a decline in quarterly profit as EV unit sales rose but margins shrank. Second-quarter net profit was $1.1 billion, down from $1.2 billion a year earlier. Sales rose to $28.2 billion, compared with $22.5 billion.
Indonesia's central bank kept policy rates unchanged on Wednesday, defying market expectations of another hike following back-to-back increases aimed at shoring up the rupiah and attracting foreign inflows.
Indonesia's parliament passed a landmark bill to establish the Indonesia International Financial Centre (PFII), a Dubai-style special economic zone projected to attract up to 500 trillion rupiah ($28 billion) in foreign investments.
The Ministry of Finance has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Thailand to 2.5%, from 1.6% earlier, citing stronger trade, investment and consumption as well as the impact of government stimulus measures.
Thai exports in June rose 20.8% year-on-year, with shipments to the US surging 44.3%. However, imports jumped 50.3%, resulting in a $6.5-billion trade deficit. First-half exports were up 17.6% while imports surged 38.0%, bringing the trade deficit to an unprecedented $31.7 billion.
Thailand's car production fell 7.5% in June to 120,391 units, the Federation of Thai Industries said. Domestic sales rose 17.3% and exports fell 7.4%. The FTI forecasts a 3.3% drop in car production for all of 2026.
The value of foreign and domestic investment applications surged 37% to 1.47 trillion baht from 1,299 projects in the first six months, driven by a massive wave of capital flowing into digital infrastructure and AI data centres, said the Board of Investment.
The Bank of Thailand is proposing daily cash payment limits for physical gold bar trades at gold shops to improve transparency and oversight of transactions that could affect exchange rates.
The government wants Thailand to break into the top 20 in global competitiveness within four years, from 26th place now, said Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas, with the country's annual growth potential rising above 3%, from an estimated 2.7% now.
The Ministry of Finance hopes to open the Thailand Individual Saving Account (TISA) fund by September to address the long-term retirement savings gap. It is expected to offer an annual tax rebate of 600,000 baht.
Ascend Bank, the virtual bank backed by CP Group, has delayed its commercial launch, citing complex regulatory mandates and technological integration issues, but it still aims to open within this year.
Foreign tourist arrivals in the week to July 18 rose 4% from the week before but were down 4.3% year-on-year to 585,000. Northeast Asian tourists posted 20.7% growth.
Thailand's entertainment and media sector is projected to generate 550 billion baht in revenue this year, for growth of 1.8%, driven by digital media segments such as internet advertising, video games and over-the-top (OTT) video services.
Thailand's life insurance industry is expected to maintain growth momentum this year, following a 3.45% expansion in 2025, said Nusara Assakul Banyatpiyaphod, president of the Thai Life Assurance Association.
Power tariffs for the September-December period will remain unchanged at 3.95 baht per unit, the The Energy Regulatory Commission, saying 16.1 billion baht in clawback funds would be used to keep prices down.
Ex-refinery diesel prices have been reduced by 2.40 baht per litre until Aug 15 to ease living costs and the burden on the Oil Fund, which has run up debts of 62 billion baht from paying subsidies.
The Ministry of Transport is reviving a proposal to move Bangkok Port operations to Laem Chabang and Chon Buri and create a mixed-use development including an entertainment complex -- without a casino -- on the 2,350-rai Klong Toey site.
The transport ministry has approved a proposal for a 12-billion-baht cruise terminal on Koh Samui, targeting up to 400,000 tourists annually.
COMING UP: On Monday, the US releases durable goods orders and Germany reports business expectations. On Tuesday, the US reports trade figures and consumer confidence, the Bank of Japan announces core inflation, and Opec ministers meet. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve decides on interest rates, and the US releases oil inventories. On Thursday, the Bank of England decides on interest rates and the US, France and Germany release GDP updates. On Friday, China announces manufacturing and composite PMI and the Bank of Japan decides on interest rates.
Locally, the Bank of Thailand on Friday holds a briefing on the trade and economic outlook, while the Thai Life Assurance Association has a annual press conference.
STOCK TO WATCH: Asia Plus Securities recommends sectors that have been resilient amid the Middle East conflict, trade tensions and the global AI-driven technology race. Its top picks are TOP, BCP, BLA, TLI, BDMS, BH, PTTGC, IVL, CPALL and COM7, citing strength in the energy, insurance, healthcare, petrochemical and retail sectors.
InnovestX Securities remains constructive on Thai equities, supported by expectations surrounding US, UK and Japanese central bank meetings, foreign fund inflows, and potentially stronger second-quarter earnings. However, geopolitical risks remain a key downside. Its recommended stocks for the week are EPG, TU and AMATA.
TECHNICAL VIEW: Both Kasikorn Securities and InnovestX Securities see support at 1,600 points and resistance at 1,660.
