Australia captain Pat Cummins has admitted that he is “less likely than likely” to play in the First Ashes Test against England next month.
Cummins has been nursing a lingering lower back injury and last played on the summer tour of the West Indies in July.
Reports in Australia last week stated that the influential fast bowler would definitely miss the Ashes opener in Perth that begins on November 21 and potentially even the entire series, with a recent scan showing that the lumbar bone stress had yet to fully heal despite showing improvement.
Former Australia coach Justin Langer later wrote in a newspaper column that Cummins was “surprised” by speculation that he could sit out all five Tests against England and remained “optimistic” of playing a key role in the series on home soil.
Now Cummins has offered his own public update on his condition, conceding that he is unlikely to be ready for the First Ashes Test but is back running.
"You'd want at least probably a month in the nets,” he told Cricket Australia’s official website.
"If you play a Test match, you want to make sure you're right to bowl 20 overs in a day and you don't have to really think about it.
"So four weeks is pretty tight, but I think somewhere around that mark.
"I'm running today and running kind of every second day, and each run is a little bit longer.
"(Then I) get into bowling prep next week. (It's) probably a couple of weeks away before I'm actually putting on the spikes and bowling out on turf.
"With these things, it's pretty hard to go from not bowling or doing anything at all to suddenly playing five Tests.
"So first steps are trying to give (me) a shot at being right, and then we'll work it out."
Cummins admitted that he needed to weigh up the potential of taking more risks with his fitness during the Ashes with next year’s international calendar looking backloaded in the second half of the year.
"Next year isn't as busy as other years, there's a T20 World Cup (in February-March) but the bulk of Test matches aren't until later in the year," he said.
"There's a little bit of that aspect (taking more risk).
"This is the big series in this next six to 12-month block, but you've got to weigh that up against taking stupid risks as well that might cost you in the long-term."
