Across Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s arid home district of Jodhpur, the same complaints are heard regarding the erratic electricity supply and lack of drinking water, with voters blaming both the BJP government at the Centre and the Congress government in the State for their woes. Jodhpur’s BJP MP Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, however, faces the greater share of the anger, as he is also the Union Minister for the Jal Shakti Ministry and voters directly connect the failure to provide clean drinking water to him.
However, it is not clear if this anger will translate into support for the Congress, which had managed to swing seven out of ten seats in Jodhpur in the 2018 Assembly election, giving it an edge to form the government in Jaipur.
“Prime Minister Narendra Modi started this new department Jal Shakti which was primarily aimed at providing drinking water to every Indian. In the name of Jal Jeevan Mission, we have a few overhead tanks, but the supply has not reached us. In the summer we are still dependent on water tankers, which are costly,” explains Hukma Ram Godhara, a 44-year-old Jat farmer at Lohawat, about 120 km away from Jodhpur town.
Water woes
This is a complaint that one hears over and over again across the district. As per the Jal Jeevan Mission portal, only 44% of rural households in Jodhpur have tap water supply. Voters complain that even these households that have got a connection on paper receive an infrequent supply of water through those taps.
At Luni Assembly constituency, on the outskirts of Jodhpur town, 66-year-old electrician Devnarayan Patel holds a grudge against Mr. Shekhawat. “He got the highest vote from Luni, but he has not done anything for us. The Water Minister didn’t bring us water,” he complained.
These recurrent complaints should be reassuring for the Congress, but the party is not sure how much of this anger will translate into actual votes against the BJP. Mr. Godhara does not offer the ruling party much hope; even as he rants about the lack of drinking water, he declares his commitment to the BJP. “I will break my finger, but I won’t vote for the Congress,” he said.
Missing candidates
Congress voters may applaud the welfare schemes run by the Rajasthan government, but add several qualifiers. “Ashok ji’s administration was outstanding; he delivered on all the promises he made. But I will decide who to vote for depending on the candidate they field here,” says 54-year-old Babu Lal Bishnoi, who runs a sweet shop in Phalaudi.
Being the CM’s home district, retaining their seats here is also a matter of prestige for the Congress, but the party is not showing the necessary speed to consolidate its 2018 gains. The odds are stacked against the Congress if one is to believe the Phalaudi Satta Market. This week, bets are being placed on the BJP winning 119 to 121 seats, with just 60 to 65 for the Congress. For the Phalaudi seat itself, however, where voters like Mr. Bishnoi are waiting to make up their minds, all bets are off as the Congress is yet to finalise its candidate here.
Shergarh is in a similar quandary, with neither the BJP nor the Congress announcing their candidates from the constituency yet. This seat was the stronghold of Congress stalwart Khet Singh Rathore, who was part of every cabinet in the State from 1954 till 2003, when he was defeated by BJP leader and Vasundhara Raje loyalist Babu Singh Rathore, who went on to win three consecutive elections and is again in the race to represent the BJP from this seat. In 2008 and 2013, the Congress has fielded Mr. Khet Singh Rathore’s grandson Umaid Singh, who lost both times. In 2018, bending the rule that any candidate who has won twice will not be fielded again, Umaid Singh’s wife Meena Kanwar was given the ticket here. She registered a surprise victory, but the Congress is no longer confident of retaining the seat, a fact that is reflected in its indecision about picking a candidate here.
Communal angle
The urban seat of Jodhpur City was another constituency that the Congress managed to wrest from the BJP, thanks to trying a new caste arithmetic by fielding Manisha Panwar, who is from an other backward class (OBC) community. The seat also has a significant Muslim presence, and the consolidation of OBC and Muslim votes turned out to be a winning combination.
Ms. Panwar has been renominated again by the Congress, and the BJP is hoping to wean OBC votes away from her by keeping last year’s communal clashes in Jodhpur central to their campaign. “The voters have not forgotten May 2022, when Ms. Manisha Panwar was nowhere to be seen when Hindus were beaten up here and then jailed here,” BJP district President Devender Salecha said.
The Congress, though it vehemently denies the allegation, is aware of the anti-incumbency current against Ms. Panwar. “The State government spent a substantial amount on Jodhpur’s infrastructure. The 2022 communal clash was contrived by the BJP and it is absolutely wrong to say that the Congress leaders did not step out of their homes at that time. Unlike the BJP, we were careful to not fan communal passions,” says Jodhpur North Mayor and Congress leader Kunti Deora Parihaar.
RLP: playing spoiler
The Soorsagar seat, that has been represented by the BJP’s Suryakant Vyas, may be up for grabs as the 84-year-old veteran has been denied the ticket this time around. Mr. Gehlot made a political point by meeting her during his visit to Jodhpur, but the Congress is yet to field anyone from the seat.
To further complicate Jodhpur’s poll arithmetic, Hanuman Beniwal’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Party has also fielded candidates from Lohawat, Bilara, and Luni. Drawing primarily on the Jat votes, the party could hurt the BJP in those three seats.
