Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has dubbed Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PLTR) the "Messi of AI"—a generational playmaker in the data game, with elite vision and impossible-to-replicate instincts. But even Lionel Messi, widely hailed as the GOAT, can get outpaced by a younger phenom. Enter Databricks, the $100 billion private-market rocket that looks a lot like Kylian Mbappé sprinting past a tired back line.
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Citron Research put it bluntly: "Palantir is a $40 stock. This time, Databricks."
Stats Don't Lie—Even In AI
On paper, Palantir and Databricks sell similar promises: turn sprawling enterprise data into decisions with AI on top. In the box score, Databricks has the edge:
- Customer count: Palantir 849 vs. Databricks 15,000
- YoY revenue growth: Palantir 45% vs. Databricks 50%
- Net revenue retention: Palantir 128% vs. Databricks 140%+
- Future growth projection: Palantir 25% vs. Databricks 50%
- Gross margin: Palantir 81% vs. Databricks 82% (a wash)
Read Also: Palantir Won Pentagon—Next Target: Fortune 500
The $40 Question
Palantir's bulls cite a government-grade moat and profitable scale. Critics counter that Databricks' broader enterprise penetration and true SaaS model make it structurally faster.
Citron's math is stark: grant Palantir the same $100 billion tag Databricks commands, and you land at $40 per share—the same figure that surfaced when benchmarking Palantir against OpenAI. Once is a coincidence; twice starts to look like a pattern.
Messi Or Mbappé?
Ives' "Messi" metaphor still fits: Palantir is a magician in tight spaces, a proven winner with a cult following among CIOs and defense clients.
But Databricks has velocity—more logos, higher expansion, faster growth. For investors sculpting their personal ‘Mt. Rushmore of AI,’ the choice may be less about greatness than trajectory: the legend with field vision, or the sprinter rewriting the speed record.
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