The Green Bay Packers, after a 3-1 start, have lost seven of the last eight games and are now 4-8 coming out of Week 12. Matt LaFleur’s team had a legitimate chance to right the ship following a comeback win over Mike McCarthy’s Dallas Cowboys in Week 10, but losses in back-to-back games to the Tennessee Titans and Philadelphia Eagles have likely killed off any realistic shot at the Packers making a playoff run over the last month or so of the 2022 season.
While not mathematically eliminated, the Packers don’t have an obvious path to the postseason.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Packers’ playoff chances now sit at only three percent.
Even if the Packers pull off a minor miracle and win the team’s last five games, FiveThirtyEight gives the Packers only a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs. At 9-8, the Packers would have no better than a coin-flip chance of being in the playoff field.
“We need to win all five and probably need a little help,” Aaron Rodgers said post-game Sunday night.
The Packers finish with a road game against the Chicago Bears, a home game against the Los Angeles Rams, a road game against the Miami Dolphins, a home game against the Minnesota Vikings and a home game against the Detroit Lions.
As of Monday, the Packers sit in 11th place in the NFC. Five of the teams ahead of the Packers have head-to-head wins, including two of the teams (Giants, Commanders) in wild-card spots. Overall, the Packers are a full three wins out of the race in the wild card.
The Minnesota Vikings are 9-2 and will soon clinch the NFC North crown.
The New York Times playoff predictor gives the Packers a five percent chance of making the postseason, and it agrees with FiveThirtyEight on the team’s chances (roughly 45 percent) even with five straight wins to close the regular season.
