With a market cap of $19 billion, Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is the third-largest producer of containerboard and uncoated freesheet paper. The company operates through its Packaging and Paper segments, supplying a wide range of corrugated packaging and paper products across North America.
Shares of the Lake Forest, Illinois-based company have underperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. PKG stock has risen 3.5% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has increased 15.1%. Moreover, shares of the company have declined 6% on a YTD basis, compared to SPX's 9.9% return.
Looking closer, Packaging Corporation stock has outpaced the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLB) 1.3% decrease over the past 52 weeks.
Shares of PKG rose marginally following its Q2 2025 results on Jul. 23 as adjusted EPS of $2.48 topped both guidance and the consensus estimate, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase. Revenue grew 4.6% to $2.2 billion, ahead of the estimate, driven by stronger pricing and mix across both Packaging and Paper segments, which also lifted gross margin to 22.2%. Investors were further encouraged by the company’s Q3 EPS guidance of $2.80.
For the fiscal year ending in December 2025, analysts expect PKG's adjusted PS to grow 12.7% year-over-year to $10.19. The company's earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing on another occasion.
Among the 10 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on four “Strong Buy” ratings and six “Holds.”
This configuration is slightly less bullish than three months ago, with five “Strong Buy” ratings on the stock.
On Aug. 11, Argus raised Packaging Corp.’s price target to $220 while maintaining a “Buy” rating.
The mean price target of $219 represents a 3.5% premium to PKG’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $244 suggests a 15.3% potential upside.
On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
