Against all odds, the Indiana Pacers have taken a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Going into the series, the Thunder were seen as the overwhelming favorites by a majority of the experts, and rightfully so. Led by NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder won a preposterous 68 games this season. And despite a neck-and-neck series with the Denver Nuggets to start the NBA Playoffs, OKC made quick work of the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals. But somehow, the Pacers have outmatched them thus far.
And that isn’t to say that we at Operation Sports were saying anything different. In our simulation of the NBA Finals, we had the Thunder beating the Pacers in 6 games. While that outcome is still mathematically possible, the Pacers are a strong team in their own right. And winning four straight games against them is no easy feat. So, what gives?
Have the Pacers become the favorites moving forward? Or is this but a minor speed bump in Oklahoma City’s championship ambitions?
Until Now, The Thunder Were Overwhelming Favorites
By halftime in Game 1, it looked like the Thunder would ultimately win the series opener. However, a massive second-half run from Indiana turned the game on its head, with Tyrese Haliburton and company persevering and winning Game 1 by a score of 111-110. Game 2 would be a different story, however, as the Thunder put their feet to the gas and never let up, beating the Pacers 123-107 and leveling the series. However, Game 3 would belong to Indiana, as they would defeat OKC by a score of 116-107, going up two games to one.
To be fair, we at OS didn’t see it much differently — simulations showed that OKC would likely lose the series opener, but would bounce back to win the following two games. Even after they lost Game 1, the Thunder were still favorites. And rightfully so, as OKC has superior talent almost across the board. But everything that could go wrong has seemingly gone wrong for the Thunder. So where do they stand now?
If The Thunder Level The Series, They Become Favorites Again
Not to sound like I’m doubling down or anything, but even down two games to one, I still think that this is the Thunder’s series to lose. SGG and Chet Holmgren are not players you can keep silenced for too long. And even if Haliburton, Aaron Nesmith, and Pascal Siakam continue to ball out, outpacing SGG and Holmgren is a fool’s errand.
If the Thunder tie the series at 2-2 going into their next game at the Paycom Center, I’m gonna go out on a whim and say they take the series, although maybe not in 6 games like we’ve predicted. If the Pacers win a third and force OKC into a do-or-die situation for the remainder of the Finals, then everything has changed.
So, were the experts wrong? Maybe they were in terms of Indiana’s competitiveness and ability to shoot the lights out of any arena they’re in. But I still don’t buy that they can sustain that kind of pace against the mighty Thunder over a seven-game period.
