Oregon and USC have been conference foes since the 1920s when both were members of the Pacific Coast Conference. Last season, the two schools—along with their rivals UCLA and Washington—made the jump to the Big Ten, placing them in a Midwest-based league as power in college football continues to consolidate with the Big (now much more than) Ten and the SEC.
The Ducks thrived, winning the Big Ten in their first season and making a trip to the College Football Playoff. The transition has been more difficult for the Trojans, who went 7–6 with a 4–5 conference record last year. Oregon is on the outside looking in of a return to Indianapolis for the conference title game, but the Ducks are in prime CFP contention once again, with just one loss on their tally so far. USC has flown a bit under the radar, and may have been counted out after taking on a pair of losses by mid-October, but Riley’s team has shown resilience, and is a win in Eugene, Ore. away from being a very serious contender to reach the playoff for the first time in program history.
The Trojans are also looking to score their first win against the Ducks since 2016, and their first win in Eugene since 2011, when Lane Kiffin was the USC coach.
Ahead of Saturday’s game, the biggest of the weekend in college football, let’s look at how the game impacts both teams’ playoff hopes.
How Oregon and USC match up
The two classic Pac-12 powers face off for the first time as Big Ten rivals with plenty on the line Saturday.
Oregon’s health is a significant storyline entering the game. Star wide receiver Dakorien Moore has missed the program’s last two games, and Gary Bryant Jr. (a former Trojans receiver) missed the win over Minnesota. The Ducks are built to win multiple ways on offense, and showed off their Big Ten ground-and-pound prowess in an 18–16 win at Iowa, rushing for 261 yards on 36 carries, with quarterback Dante Moore throwing just 21 times for 112 yards. The blowout win over the Golden Gophers was a more balanced effort, with 33 pass attempts to 30 runs for the Ducks. USC’s defense is much improved in 2025, but rush defense is still in issue—Illinois rolled up 171 rushing yards and a touchdown in their tight win vs. the Trojans, while Notre Dame exploded for 306 yards and three scores. Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. should expect plenty of work for the Ducks.
USC also strives for balance on offense, and has largely achieved it with quarterback Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon forming one of the nation’s top quarterback-receiver duos, and King Miller excelling since becoming the Trojans’ lead back. Oregon has one of the nation’s top pass defenses, and Maiava has to prove he can win a big road game. USC is 2–2 on the road this season, and Maiava’s home/road splits are troublesome when the Trojans leave the Coliseum:
A win at Autzen Stadium, one of the toughest places to play in the sport, would be a huge point in Maiava’s—and Lincoln Riley’s—favor, and push back on the narrative that the Trojans program has grown soft.
How an Oregon win would impact its playoff chances
Keep winning, and Oregon will be safely in the field. That much was clear with this week’s rankings release, in which the Ducks landed at No. 7. Oregon’s relatively weak résumé has been a frequent discussion piece, even if it is far from the team’s fault. Few could have predicted the slide that Penn State has had this season, not to mention that of Oklahoma State, which is having its worst season in a generation.
It helps that new selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek revealed that the team is still being bolstered by its win at Penn State, despite the freefall that the Nittany Lions went into, resulting in the dismissal of coach James Franklin. The Ducks won’t have to lean on that result as much with a win over No. 15 USC this weekend, and can fully punch its ticket with a win over rival Washington to close the season. Should Oregon drop a game to finish 10–2, things get hairy because of that questionable résumé, especially if they go head-to-head with a USC team that beat them. At 11–1, they are absolutely safe, and will almost certainly host a first-round game in the CFP.
Oregon’s 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the Week 13 College Football Playoff 25.
How a USC win would impact its playoff chances
With a loss, USC’s CFP dreams are effectively extinguised. With a win, however, the Trojans’ case becomes very intriguing.
Lincoln Riley’s program would secure one of the best wins in the nation this year, on-par with No. 2 Indiana’s signature win over the Ducks in Eugene, depending on how things shake out, as the Hoosiers controlled that 10-point victory pretty thoroughly. USC would add a second win over a current Top 25 team, to go with its blowout of Michigan, which has aged well.
If the Trojans follow it up with a win against rival UCLA, they would find themselves in the jumble of power conference teams at 10–2, a list that could include Oklahoma, Alabama, Utah, Miami, Vanderbilt and in this scenario, Notre Dame (which has a head-to-head win against USC), and Oregon (whom the Trojans will have defeated). Conventional wisdom is that a 10–2 team from the SEC or Big Ten should make the field, and ESPN’s playoff predictor likes their odds, putting them at 75% if the Trojans win out and don’t make the Big Ten championship (which is a long shot). Those are better odds than most figured USC would have when it dropped two of three games in the middle of the schedule, but with four teams currently between them and the final at-large bid, and a situation in which they can all win out without knocking any of the teams above them out of the field, it is far from a guarantee.
USC's 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the Week 13 College Football Playoff 25.
Sports Illustrated's postseason projections for Oregon, USC
In his latest playoff bracket, SI’s Pat Forde has Oregon locked in at No. 7—the same spot as the selection committee—with USC listed among his six bubble teams. In his bracket, the Ducks would face No. 10 Notre Dame in the first round in Eugene, Ore., with the winner facing No. 2 Indiana in the quarterfinals.
Bryan Fischer’s projections had Oregon at No. 8, in line for a home game against No. 9 Oklahoma with the winner set for a Rose Bowl trip against No. 1 Ohio State. As for the Trojans, Fischer projected them to the Alamo Bowl against Houston.
Both of their most recent bracket projections were published Sunday, before the selection committee’s most recent bracket release on Tuesday. Check out their live reactions to Tuesday night’s rankings here.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Oregon vs. USC: How Game Impacts College Football Playoff Race for Ducks, Trojans.
