RECAP: Asian stock markets rose and oil prices receded yesterday, boosted by optimism that the United States and Iran will reach a deal to end their war that has hobbled global energy supplies.
The Thai exchange was volatile and consolidated on Friday as the semi-annual MSCI rebalancing was to take place at the close, ahead of the long weekend.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,545.63 and 1,581.74 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1.568.37, up 1.9% from the previous week, with heavy daily turnover averaging 76.52 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 1.11 billion baht, followed by foreign investors at 1.05 billion and brokerage firms at 403.42 million. Institutional investors were net sellers at 2.57 billion baht.
NEWSMAKERS: The US and Iran have reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend their ceasefire for 60 days and start negotiations to permanently end the war. However, President Donald Trump has said he remains unsatisfied with an unofficial draft and that lifting sanctions will not be part of any deal.
The US economy expanded by just 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, down from an earlier estimate of 2%, primarily reflecting downward revisions to investment and consumer spending.
US personal consumption expenditure, the Federal Reserve's favoured inflation gauge, rose by the most in three years at 3.8% in April, driven by high energy prices and cementing views that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged well into next year.
The US consumer confidence index slipped to 93.1 in May from 93.8 in April, as worries about inflation linked to the Mideast war as well as the jobs outlook intensified.
Energy inflation tied to the war has lasted longer than expected, creating a "stagflationary shock" for Asian economies, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said. He also warned that anticipated AI productivity gains are inflationary and an oil shock makes the problem worse.
Samsung Electronics union members approved a deal for massive annual bonuses tied to AI-fuelled profits, after threatening a major strike. Around 78,000 employees are eligible to receive roughly $370,000 (12 million baht) each this year.
Industrial profits in China grew 18.2% year-on-year in the first four months of 2026, accelerating from 15.5% a month earlier, as the energy sector benefited from higher prices while the tech sector was supported by strong AI and data centre demand.
The International Energy Agency forecasts global oil project investments will fall below US$500 billion in 2026, declining for the third consecutive year, driven by supply disruptions from Mideast conflicts.
The European Commission fined the Chinese e-commerce platform Temu €200 million for failing to identify and assess the systemic risks of illegal products on its platform and the resulting harm to consumers.
Hong Kong has overtaken Switzerland as the world's largest cross-border wealth hub, driven by an initial public offering bonanza and capital inflows from mainland China, according to Boston Consulting Group.
The US tech giant Dell lifted its annual revenue forecast to between $165 billion and $169 billion, from a previous forecast of $138 billion to $142 billion, as data centre expansion by clients fuels demand for its AI-optimised servers.
The Chinese EV maker XPeng reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter earnings as revenue fell 18% year-on-year to 13 billion yuan, pressured by a 33% drop in vehicle deliveries.
Thailand posted a record-high current account deficit of $7.6 billion in April, with economic growth slowing from the previous month from the impacts of the war and expected to get weaker, the Bank of Thailand said yesterday.
Thai exports rose more than expected by 23.1% year-on-year to $31.5 billion in April, following a gain of 18.7% in March, the Ministry of Commerce said, Imports jumped 45% to $41.6 billion, resulting in an all-time high trade deficit of $10.02 billion.
Car production in Thailand fell to a five-year low in April, falling 44% from a year earlier to 103,794 units, following a 2.69% rise in March, the Federation of Thai Industries said, citing war-related export disruptions and higher energy prices.
Thailand's manufacturing production index in April fell 0.36% from a year earlier, following a gain of 1.3% the previous month.
Thailand's housing market showed faint signs of recovery in the first quarter of 2026, the Government Housing Bank said, with volumes rising even as gains in value lagged, underscoring weak purchasing power. Foreign condo demand weakened sharply, with transfers down 17% overall and Chinese buying down 43% in value.
The Real Estate Information Center (REIC) forecasts ownership transfers will contract 2.3% in value in 2026, pressured by higher construction costs.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand has warned investors about speculative trading in electronics stocks amid a frenzy for all things AI. Prices, trading volumes and financial ratios (P/E, P/BV) have surged beyond fundamental support, it said.
Clicx Bank, Thailand's first virtual bank licence holder, is scheduled to launch its mobile application on June 19, aiming to tap underserved customers.
Ascend Bank, the virtual bank backed by CP Group, is expected to debut in July, says Suphachai Chearavanont, senior vice-chairman of CP Group.
International tourist arrivals to Thailand for the week ending May 22 were 520,536, up 12% year-on-year from a low base and 11% from the week before, supported by non-China tourists during long holidays, school breaks in Malaysia and India, and resumption of British Airways direct flights.
The Energy Regulatory Commission has opened a public hearing on proposed electricity tariff restructuring. In all scenarios, the tariff for the first 200 units a month would not exceed 3 baht per unit, but households consuming over 400 units will see an increase of between 0.54 and 1.03 baht. Industrial users will be considered in the next phase.
Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn says Chinese firms are keen to jointly invest in 7 Thai megaprojects, including high-speed and double-track rail, airport expansions, and the Phuket tunnel, positioning Thailand as an Asean logistics hub.
COMING UP: On Monday, the US releases manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) and construction spending updates. On Wednesday, the US reports private payrolls, services PMI and crude oil inventories. On Thursday, the US releases initial jobless claims, productivity and labour cost data. On Friday, the US announces non-farm payrolls, unemployment and wage data, Japan reports household spending and India decides on interest rates.
Locally, Krungthai XSpring Securities on Friday discusses the investment outlook and the Ministry of Finance launches the Bond Connect Platform.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Asia Plus Securities favours laggard large-cap stocks with solid fundamentals and potential for fund inflows. Recommended export plays are CPF and TU, while BDMS, MINT and THAI are expected to benefit from recovering tourism and domestic consumption.
InnovestX Securities sees positive sentiment from progress in US-Iran negotiations, while the Thai Chuay Thai Plus stimulus could boost economic activity. Its top picks for next week are AMATA, CPALL and GULF, while electronics stocks may face heightened volatility after a sharp rally.
TECHNICAL VIEW: Krungsri Securities sees support at 1,553 points and resistance at 1,600. InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,540 and resistance at 1,610.
