“A vote of confidence in the Labour party,” said a relieved Jeremy Corbyn of his party’s victory in the Oldham West and Royton byelection last night. It was his first electoral test as leader and he passed. After a week in political hell, the sight of cheering supporters and waving rosettes must have been comforting beyond all expectation. He had the added joy of seeing the Tories beaten yet again into third place by Ukip, in a town where immigration has long been a running political sore. For the Tories the old hobgoblins remain.
The occupational disease of Westminster analysts is reading too much into byelections. They hate it when uppity local voters offend their expectations. There have been as many Liberal Democrat and Ukip “new dawns” as there have been Monster Raving Loony candidates. But voters in byelections are not selecting governments, nor necessarily passing judgment on national leaders. Sometimes they even vote for the candidate.
This was clearly the case in Oldham. Corbyn was not a name on Labour lips. The campaign was summed up by a local Labour worker as being about Jim, Jim, Jim and Jim. Jim McMahon is the coming man of Manchester’s political renaissance. The 35-year-old local council leader and, until yesterday, probable elected mayor of the new Manchester regional authority, is one of a group of local politicians to do well from George Osborne’s “northern powerhouse”.
McMahon stands alongside such “Osbornistas” as Manchester’s Sir Richard Leese, Wigan’s Peter Smith and Sean Anstee of Trafford.
Opposed by Ed Miliband for collaborating with the powerhouse initiative, they have become almost an independent Mancunian Labour party. Last night’s vote could as well be seen as showing confidence in the new Manchester leadership.
There must clearly be some investigation of the result by the indolent Electoral Commission, which appears unable to stamp out postal voting irregularity in parts of the country. If indeed, as Nigel Farage claims, boxes were being stuffed with postal votes going 99% for Labour, it should be examined, irrespective of whether this might or might not have affected the outcome.
That said, no national messages should be drawn from byelections. They are cries from the backwoods, each to its own. But for sure, the Tories can take no joy from being drubbed where they might have hoped for some backwash from last spring’s general election.
Ukip can take no joy from failing to win in a racially charged area.
The Liberal Democrats are a broken reed. And no one can deny Jeremy Corbyn at least a wan smile and a sound night’s sleep.
