Oil prices traded flat on Tuesday after tumbling in the previous session as investors remained focused on signs of a sustained recovery in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the most important waterway transporting 20% of the world’s total oil exports.
Crude oil price on June 23
Brent crude futures rose 24 cents, or 0.38%, to $78.15 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 33 cents, or 0.46%, to $74.19 a barrel as of 0026 GMT.
On Monday, oil prices had dropped more than 3% after the United States granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following initial peace negotiations. Market sentiment was also influenced by reports of reduced hostilities in Lebanon under the broader agreement.
The latest developments came after a tense weekend that had raised concerns about the stability of the week-old accord. U.S. President Donald Trump had warned that military action could resume if Iran interfered with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran announced the closure of the key waterway.
In a post on Truth Social on Monday, Trump said Iran would agree to weapons inspections to ensure "nuclear honesty." "If Iran doesn't live up to their agreement, or if they're not behaving, I will do what I have to do," Trump later told reporters.
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Where are prices headed?
Despite the recent slide in oil prices, a complete reopening of Hormuz is expected to be a complex process. It will require careful coordination of vessel movements, restarting oil wells, repairing infrastructure, and agreeing on de-mining operations. Some shipowners also remain wary of operating conditions in the strait and the wider Persian Gulf.
Analysts note that global oil inventories were depleted during the extended disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and will take time to rebuild. Stockpiles could continue falling before fresh Gulf supplies begin reaching international markets.
Last month, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser cautioned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could delay a return to stability in global oil markets until 2027. According to Nasser, prolonged interruptions could affect nearly 100 million barrels of oil supply each week. Saudi Aramco remains the world's largest oil producer.
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Morgan Stanley described the oil market as being in "a race against time," warning that some factors limiting the rise in prices could weaken if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through June.
The brokerage noted that higher U.S. crude exports and softer Chinese demand have so far helped absorb part of the supply shock. However, it cautioned that global supplies could tighten again if disruptions in the strategic shipping route continue, particularly beyond the period during which the U.S. and China can cushion the impact.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
