Hitesh Jain, Executive Vice President at Yes Securities, shares his outlook on crude oil, precious metals, and the sustainability of the AI investment cycle.
The world is navigating an unusual economic crossroads — oil prices hovering near triple digits, gold stabilising after a historic run, and artificial intelligence triggering a capital expenditure wave that some are comparing to, yet distinguishing sharply from, the dotcom era. Here is what the data and expert analysis suggest about where markets are headed.
Oil: Stuck between war and peace
Brent crude remains in an uneasy corridor, and the ambiguity is by design. Since mid-April, attacks on energy infrastructure have eased, but the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists. That shift has narrowed the futures backwardation spread from as wide as $40–50 down to roughly $7–10, a sign that immediate supply panic has softened, even if structural concerns remain.
The numbers tell a stark story. For the full calendar year 2025, oil markets were in an average surplus of 2.5 million barrels per day. Between January and April this year, that flipped to a deficit of the same magnitude. Production outages in April alone ran as high as 10–11 million barrels per day.
"We are neither in a state of war nor in a state of peace -it is a state of ambiguity," Jain told ET Now.
If the stalemate ends, prices could ease toward $85 per barrel as the risk premium fades. If it drags on, a realistic range is $95–$100 per barrel, with production outages potentially taking until Q4 2026 to fall below one million barrels per day.
AI and the new global capex cycle
The AI investment wave is real, and, crucially, it is backed by earnings. Jain draws a sharp contrast with the 2000 dotcom bubble: today's AI companies carry stronger EPS growth, lower PE ratios relative to growth expectations, and healthier operating margins than their dot-com predecessors.
The key difference? Adoption speed. In 2000, there was a significant lag between technology introduction and real-world uptake. Today, enterprises across the globe are already using AI and monetisation is following close behind.
This is feeding a broader multi-year global capex cycle, accelerated by post-pandemic self-sufficiency drives in Europe, Japan, and emerging markets. Sectors best positioned to benefit include capital goods, power and utilities, and industrial commodities, particularly aluminium and copper, which are integral to AI data centre infrastructure.
India: An adoption market, not a disruption target
India's equity story is more resilient to AI disruption than many assume. Around 75–80% of NSE 500 companies by market cap are anchored in physical assets, regulated sectors, or domestic consumption — financials, consumer staples, infrastructure. These businesses will not be disintermediated by AI.
IT services and BPOs face real headwinds, and valuations have already reset to reflect that. But Jain argues that over time, Indian IT firms will migrate toward higher-value, judgement-intensive, consultancy-driven models — effectively becoming AI aggregators rather than coding vendors.
The broader India equity market, says Jain, should be viewed as an AI adoption beneficiary, not an AI disruption casualty.
Gold peaks, silver has a longer runway
Gold has largely priced in the geopolitical premium. After doubling from around $2,500 to near $5,000 per ounce over the past 12–15 months, Jain believes prices are now range-bound, with $4,500–$5,000 acting as a ceiling in the one-to-two-year view. Rising real yields, driven by a higher global cost of capital, create a structural headwind for further gains.
Silver is a more nuanced case. Unlike gold, it carries significant industrial demand, particularly from renewables and AI hardware. Supply shortfalls are already visible. While silver prices tend to track gold in the short term (limiting near-term upside), its dual role as both a monetary and industrial metal gives it a stronger long-term tailwind.
