Ohio State football’s chances of winning each game on remaining schedule updated by ESPN after Week 2

Two weeks down and two victories for the Ohio State football team. Things haven’t been a smooth and well-oiled operation so far in 2022, but it could be worse, just look around the country at teams like Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Texas A&M that have already lost a game or two.

And while the Buckeyes have two double-digit wins under their belt, each week brings new observations and different data elements that get spit into the big machine that is the ESPN FPI matchup predictor.

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We check in on what the percentages say about Ohio State’s chances of winning each remaining game on the schedule after each week, and things do change quite a bit. After last week, is OSU still favored in all of its games, or has someone like Michigan closed the gap enough in these crazy formula-driven predictions to make the Buckeyes no longer the favorite?

Here’s what all the data says on ESPN for the probabilities of winning each game on the remaining schedule for Ohio State.

Saturday, Sept. 17, vs. Toledo

Sep 23, 2017; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Toledo Rockets head coach Jason Candle looks on from the sideline in the game against the Miami Hurricanes during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.4% (down from 98.4%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 3-0

Projected running record: 3-0

 

Saturday, Sept. 24. vs. Wisconsin

Wisconsin Badgers wide receiver Chimere Dike (13) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown in the third quarter of the game against Illinois State Redbirds on Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022, at Camp Randall in Madison, Wis. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 93.5% (down from 90.5%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 61-18-5

Projected running record: 4-0

Saturday, Oct. 1, vs. Rutgers

Sep 10, 2022; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Samuel Brown V (27) runs with the ball against the Wagner Seahawks during the second half at SHI Stadium. Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.2% (down from 98.0%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-0

Projected running record: 5-0

 

Saturday, Oct. 8, at Michigan State

Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne (10) hands the ball to running back Jarek Broussard (3) during the first half at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Michigan)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 76.3% (down from 82.3%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 35-15

Projected running record: 6-0

 

Saturday, Oct. 22, vs. Iowa

Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras (7) stands with teammates tight end Bryce Schulte (48) and defensive back Riley Moss (33) after an NCAA college football game in the Vrbo Citrus Bowl against Kentucky, Saturday, Jan. 1, 2022, at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.5% (down from 96.9%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-15-3

Projected running record: 7-0

 

Saturday, Oct. 29, at Penn State

Sep 10, 2022; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Omari Evans (18) runs with the ball on a punt return during the fourth quarter against the Ohio Bobcats at Beaver Stadium. Penn State defeated Ohio 46-10. Credit: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 78.1% (down from 82.5%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 22-14

Projected running record: 8-0

Saturday, Nov. 5, at Northwestern

Sep 10, 2022; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald looks on during the first quarter against the Duke Blue Devils at Ryan Field. Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.6% (up from 95.8%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 64-14-1

Projected running record: 9-0

 

Saturday, Nov. 12, vs. Indiana

Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.0% (up from 97.7%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 77-12-5

Projected running record: 10-0

 

Saturday, Nov. 19, at Maryland

Sep 10, 2022; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Maryland Terrapins wide receiver Octavian Smith Jr. (15) and quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (9) celebrate his touchdown against the Charlotte 49ers during the second half at Jerry Richardson Stadium. Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Maryland Stadium (College Park, Maryland)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 86.5% (down from 89.7%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 7-0

Projected running record: 11-0

Saturday, Nov. 26, vs. Michigan

Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Cornelius Johnson (6) celebrates his score against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors during first-half action at Michigan Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 79.5% (down from 80.3%)
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-59-6

Projected Final Regular Season record: 12-0

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