The SNP is set to “gobble up” constituency seats at Holyrood but the “odds are against” John Swinney’s party winning an overall majority, polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice has said.
The University of Strathclyde academic said the latest polling indicates the SNP is “not quite far enough” ahead with voters to win more than half the seats at Holyrood.
He was speaking on the eve of the Scottish Parliament election, with the vote coming at the end of a campaign in which SNP leader Mr Swinney has been focused on repeating the party’s success from 2011 and securing an overall majority.
The Scottish First Minister believes such a result could lead Westminster to change its stance and permit a second independence referendum.
While Mr Swinney has already pencilled in 2028 for such a vote, Sir John said key battles in a “handful of seats” could deny the SNP an overall majority.
Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland’s breakfast programme on Wednesday, the polling guru said studies show the Tories may “just hang on to a handful of constituency seats and the Liberal Democrats will just make a handful of gains”.
This, combined with the prospect of parties such as the Greens and Reform UK winning in some areas, could mean “there are just a relatively small number of contests where the other parties are going to hang on, or in one or two instances make a gain, and that is going to stand between the SNP and victory”, he said.
But he added: “The truth is, trying to forecast exactly what is going to happen in individual seats is very, very difficult.
“If the cookie were to crumble just slightly in the SNP’s favour, the Greens just miss out on some of their hopes, then maybe the SNP might still make it.
“But if the polls are right the odds are against it and the SNP will need a lot of luck.”
He said support for the SNP is “well down” from the last Holyrood election in 2021 – when the party, then under Nicola Sturgeon, polled almost 48% of the constituency votes.
But Sir John also said: “Support for the Conservatives is also well down on what it was in 2021 and perhaps support for Labour is also edging down as well, that would mean the SNP would still gobble up most of the constituencies that they won back in 2021.”
He also said polling suggests “Reform have a narrow lead over Labour” in the race for second place.
Sir John said: “I don’t think any of us can be sure what is going to happen but we might have a new party being the second largest party in the new Parliament.”
His comments came as a new multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll by YouGov suggested the SNP will win 62 Holyrood seats on Thursday – three short of the 65 needed for an overall majority.
The Times reported YouGov also predicted Reform UK would emerge as the second largest party on 19 seats, two more than Labour on 17.
The Scottish Greens could win 16 seats at Holyrood – which would be the party’s best ever result – including taking the Edinburgh Central constituency being contested by the Scottish Constitution, External Affairs and Culture Secretary, Angus Robertson.
The research went on to predict the Scottish Liberal Democrats could have eight MSPs – double the four they won in 2021 – while the Tories could go from 31 seats to seven, making them the smallest party.
MRPs use voter intentions, demographics, previous voting behaviour and constituency information to project the number of seats parties could win.
In April, YouGov said such a poll had suggested 89% of simulations it ran resulted in the SNP winning an outright majority – however this was now said to have fallen to 11%.
Another poll out on Thursday by Ipsos also put the SNP in the lead, but with this showing the party’s support falling back slightly on both constituency and regional ballots, Ipsos Scotland managing director Emily Gray said it “may dent the SNP’s confidence in achieving its hoped-for majority”.
While she added that their research found a quarter of voters could still change their minds about who to back, Ms Gray stated: “The race for second place in voting intentions looks too close to call, with Scottish Labour narrowly ahead of Reform on the constituency vote but Reform outpacing Labour on the regional list vote – where the Greens also appear to be in contention, if they can get their voters to turn out. ”
With 1 in 4 voters saying they may still change their minds about which party to vote for, all Scotland's parties still have something to play for in this final day of campaigning.
— Emily Gray (@EmilyIpsosScot) May 6, 2026
Reform UK's support looks the firmest of any party's, with 83% saying they've definitely decided. pic.twitter.com/v8JPE81Qfs
The Ipsos poll, carried out for STV News/ITV Peston, put the SNP comfortably in front on both ballots, with support levels of 35% and 26% on the constituency and regional ballots respectively.
Labour were on 20% in the constituency ballot, with this up by five points from a previous Ipsos poll in March, putting them narrowly ahead of Reform UK on 18%.
Both the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives polled 11%.
On the regional ballot, Reform UK were in second place on 18%, with the Scottish Greens third on 17% and Labour fourth on 15%. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, were on 11%, with the Conservatives sixth on 10%.
Ms Gray said: “This could be the worst-ever performance at a Scottish election for both Labour and the Conservatives if these numbers are replicated on polling day.
“But with one in four voters still saying they may yet change their mind, all the parties still have something to play for in the final day of campaigning.”
