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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
Sport
Julia Ranney, Beau Dure and Megan Swanick

NWSL 2024 predictions: are Gotham FC and San Diego on a repeat collision course?

Kansas City Current midfielder Lo'Eau LaBonta (10) and midfielder Debinha (99) look on during a 2023 game against the Chicago Red Stars at Children's Mercy Park.
Kansas City Current midfielder Lo'Eau LaBonta (10) and midfielder Debinha (99) look on during a 2023 game against the Chicago Red Stars at Children's Mercy Park. Photograph: Jay Biggerstaff/USA Today Sports

The season will be defined by …

Vibrant, young players looking to make their mark on professional football. USWNT stars Trinity Rodman, 21, and Jaedyn Shaw, 19, will lead the frontline for Washington Spirit and San Diego wave respectively, while draft picks Ally Sentnor (No 1) and Savannah King (No 2) will bolster expansion teams Utah Royals and Bay FC. JR

Less parity than last season, when all of the playoff places were in doubt in the last couple of weeks. Some teams are taking advantage of new roster regulations to spend a ton of money. Some (cough ... Utah) are not. BD

Evolution. Two new expansion clubs (Bay FC, Utah Royals) aren’t the only signs of progression in NWSL’s 12th year. A new broadcast deal affirms the value of elite women’s soccer, showcasing the league across CBS, ESPN, Prime Video and Scripps ION in a deal worth $240m. Kansas City will christen the first purpose-built women’s sports stadium. Free agency and record transfer signings push standards for attracting talent. Rampant coaching changes could impact the league’s style. The list goes on. MS

The most exciting addition is …

Jessie Fleming. Fleming joined Portland Thorns in January. The Canadian skipper, who spent four seasons with WSL title-holders Chelsea, will want minutes ahead of the Olympics after being an alternate for the Blues last season. With the ball, the 26-year-old is a master at controlling a game’s tempo and will add additional stability in the midfield. JR

It’s hard to argue against someone who scored two hat tricks in the last Olympics. That would be Zambia star Barbra Banda, whom Orlando bought from Chinese side Shanghai Shengli for a reported $740,000. A short time ago, that would have been the world record for a women’s soccer transfer fee, but now Banda isn’t even the most expensive Zambian in the league. That would be Racheal Kundananji, for whom Bay FC paid roughly $789,000 to Madrid CFF. BD

Asisat Oshoala. Nigeria’s player of the year signed for Bay FC in a deal at times overshadowed by an offseason rife with records. Kundananji and Banda moved stateside for record deals, but the former Barcelona forward may find the personnel and system led by Albertin Montoya are perfectly suited for her to thrive. MS

The storyline to watch …

The league’s expansion, and how the new teams fare. The start of the season marks the inaugural campaign for Bay FC, and the return of Utah Royals – who shut down operations in 2020. Not only are more teams and games an exciting opportunity for the NWSL, they also demonstrate the meteoric rise of women’s football. JR

Which pathway to the pros will produce the best players this season? The traditional college draft is getting less relevant now, with NWSL teams scrambling to sign US teenagers before they set foot on a university campus. On the other side of the expense spreadsheet, we have the African trio mentioned above as well as a few other budget-busting signees such as Deyna Castellanos, whose path from Venezuela to Bay FC passed through Florida State, Atlético Madrid and Manchester City. If either pathway proves productive, these tentative steps away from the college pipeline will become a trend. BD

Olympic competition. With the US player pool still predominantly competing stateside, a deep bench of talent will use the league to make their case for Emma Hayes’s Olympic roster. In a time of transition, do young players like 18-year-old Olivia Moultrie (Portland Thorns) and 19-year-old Jaedyn Shaw (San Diego Wave) affirm their case? Will Mallory Swanson (Chicago Red Stars) in the same record-setting, pre-injury form? Will Alex Morgan tear into the season with Casey Stoney, in a way that makes her undroppable? MS

The team to watch …

Reigning champions Gotham FC. Given their dramatic turnaround from worst-to-first last season, we’ll see if they can sustain their success. In an electric transfer window, Gotham signed Rose Lavelle, Emily Sonnett, Crystal Dunn and Tierna Davidson, all big names in the sport. Will this investment lead to pressure, or will it pay off with another trophy? JR

How did the NWSL get by for so many years without a presence in California? Now, on any given gameday, take your pick between the three glitzy attacking teams. San Diego have the bookends of the age range on the US women’s national team forward ranks in veteran Morgan and breakout star Shaw. Angel City have a similar spread with US veterans Christen Press and Sydney Leroux tutoring teenager Alyssa Thompson. Bay FC have depth behind Kundananji and Oshoala. BD

Bay FC. The league’s 14th team preach beautiful, possession-based football under the care of Montoya. They’ve signed seismic international stars to see that out: Kundananji and Oshoala, joined by Deyna Castellanos, Jen Beattie and more. Do they deliver on their ambition in their inaugural year? MS

This year’s breakout star will be…

20-year-old Ally Sentnor made headlines when she became the first pick in the 2024 NWSL draft. The Royals scooped up the University of North Carolina forward in January, and will use her speed and consistency to make an immediate impact in the NWSL. JR

Having hyped up the non-college pathways to the NWSL, I’ll pick someone who is joining through the college draft, Savy King. The defender spent just one year at North Carolina before entering the draft, where she was the second overall pick. Bay FC need someone to hold down the other end of the field while their more expensive players chase goals up front. BD

Croix Bethune. There are a lot of question marks surrounding the Washington Spirit, as they start the year with an interim manager before finishing with Barcelona boss Jonatan Giraldez, who will join once the Spanish season is over. But the Spirit made big moves to acquire Georgia’s Bethune at No 3 in the NWSL Draft, and her leadership in midfield could have an impact on this squad. MS

The MVP will be …

Don’t be shocked if Jaedyn Shaw becomes the MVP with San Diego Wave. Fresh off earning tournament MVP from the Gold Cup, the USWNT sensation boasts finishing, sensational dribbling and quick bursts of pace to move the ball up the pitch. A competitor of the highest caliber, Shaw’s ruthless ability to find the net could earn her the Golden Boot as well. JR

Jaedyn Shaw was named to the NWSL Best XI last year and followed up by winning the Golden Ball at the Gold Cup. Get used to seeing her pose with trophies. BD

Sophia Smith. It feels funny to suggest that last year’s Golden Boot winner enters 2024 with something to prove. But World Cup disappointment was followed by injury, then a disappointing end to Portland’s year. Smith also slipped from the USWNT starting XI this W Gold Cup. Now healthy, back in her home environment, and aiming to feel like herself again, I expect Smith to tear into the league. MS

Playoff teams …

Gotham FC, San Diego Wave, Portland Thorns, North Carolina Courage, Angel City FC, Orlando Pride, Seattle Reign, Washington Spirit. JR

Angel City FC, Gotham FC, Houston Dash, Kansas City Current, North Carolina Courage, Portland Thorns, Racing Louisville, San Diego Wave. BD

San Diego Wave, Portland Thorns, Gotham FC, Bay FC, Angel City FC, Seattle Reign, North Carolina Courage, Washington Spirit. MS

NWSL champions …

On paper, it looks like a championship showdown between Gotham FC and San Diego Wave. While Casey Stoney’s side are getting better and better, it may not be enough to beat the overflow of talent Juan Carlos Amoros has to choose from. Gotham thrive on pressure and momentum – which they have no shortage of. This season, nothing short of another trophy will be a let down. JR

Gotham FC over San Diego 2-1 in the final. The New York/New Jersey squad have added Lavelle, Dunn, Davidson and Sonnett to a team that won the championship last year and feature world champion Esther Gonzalez. That’s almost unfair. But general manager Yael Averbuch West, who was one of the more cerebral players of her generation, is playing grandmaster chess while many of her peers are playing Wordle. BD

Portland Thorns are crowned champions in a year of transition for a team with new owners, as they honor club legends Christine Sinclair and Becky Sauerbrunn with one more championship. A young midfield, with Jessie Fleming’s addition, supplies the consistent attacking prowess of Morgan Weaver and Smith, in a dynamic that proves insurmountable. MS

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