The debate over the future of fossil fuels, the biggest cause of global warming, is the key battle at the Cop28 climate summit hosted by the oil-rich United Arab Emirates. As neighbouring Saudi Arabia – the world's biggest oil exporter – ruled out phasing down oil, gas and coal, and activists sounded the alarm over fossil fuel lobbying at the talks, the chances of agreeing an ambitious deal looked slim.
The latest version of a potential agreement includes two drastically different options: phasing out fossil fuels or not addressing the issue at all, negotiators said on Tuesday, as they headed back into tough talks due to end next week.
The draft gives three options in total: an "orderly and just" phase-out, faster efforts to phase out fossil fuel projects that do not capture and store emissions, or "no text" on the subject.
An earlier draft that proposed a "phase-down/out" was badly received by delegates, a Latin American negotiator told French news agency AFP.
"Everyone was extremely unhappy with the first draft," the negotiator said, requesting anonymity.
"When we started talking... everything collapsed... There is pretty much nothing on the way forward," the delegate added.
Saudi resistance
Saudi Arabia has already said it will "absolutely not" agree to phasing down fossil fuels, never mind phasing them out.
"I assure you not a single person – I'm talking about governments – believes in that," Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told Bloomberg in Riyadh.
"I would like to put that challenge for all of those who... come out publicly saying we have to (phase down)... Call them and ask them how they are gonna do that."
The Cop28 president, Sultan Al Jaber – who is also head of the UAE's national oil company – says he believes that "the phase-down and the phase-out of fossil fuel is inevitable".
Fossil fuel lobby
But climate campaigners fear business interests will prevail at the UN summit – which as well as being hosted by an oil producer has also opened the doors to a record number of fossil fuel lobbyists.
According to NGO umbrella group Kick Big Polluters Out, 2,456 people tied to fossil fuel interests received accreditation to attend the latest talks, roughly four times the number at Cop27 last year.
If taken as a group they outnumber every country delegation apart from Brazil and the UAE, the group said.
All Cop delegates are required to be hosted by a government or registered organisation.
According to the campaigners, France brought the head of its fossil fuel giant TotalEnergies, Italy included a team from Italian energy giant Eni, while the European Union brought employees of oil giants BP and ExxonMobil.
'Zero confidence'
Dozens of people protested inside the Cop28 venue on Tuesday, holding up signs reading "Phase out fossil fuels now" and "Stop funding fossil fuels".
"If the United Nations continues to allow the fossil fuel industry to lead climate mitigation and to lead Cop... I have zero confidence that Cop will be successful," Thomas Harmy Joseph, a member of the US-based Indigenous Environmental Network, told AFP.
Scientists, activists and several governments say oil, gas and coal must be phased out and replaced with solar, wind and other renewable technology to prevent the planet from overheating.
An agreement on the role of fossil fuels is seen as key to the success of the UN talks, which end on 12 December.
(with AFP)
