It’s been telling how much of the coverage around England recently has focused on how they must improve before the World Cup finals next summer. It’s true, of course: they’ve been in the final of the last two Euros, played well in getting to the quarter-final of the last World Cup and have a fleet of extremely gifted players but have not really impressed since beating Greece in the Nations League under Lee Carsley last November.
What’s never considered, though, is the thought that they may not get to the 2026 World Cup at all.
England travel to face Serbia on Tuesday, having won four out of four without conceding a goal. But three of those four games have been at home and two of them have been against Andorra. They still have to go not only to Belgrade but also to Tirana to face Albania. Serbia could only draw away there, which offers a little breathing space, but were England to lose on Tuesday, they would be under pressure. The home game against Serbia in November could end up as a shootout for who takes the group’s sole automatic qualification slot and who is forced into the playoffs. It’s a jeopardy to which England as a whole, having not missed out on a World Cup since the last one staged in the USA, in 1994, have perhaps not quite adjusted.
For the major nations of western Europe, the assumption seems to have been that the expanded World Cup would mean guaranteed qualification – and understandably so. This is not 1978 when there were only 16 qualifiers and England and Italy faced off in a four-team qualifying group with only one to make it to Argentina. It’s not even like 1994, a 24-team tournament, when England were grouped with the Netherlands, a very good Norway and a decent Poland, plus Turkey and San Marino, with two qualifying from that cohort. Even after expansion to 32 sides, England found themselves in groups with Italy (for 1998) and Germany (for 2002), with one to qualify directly and the other to face a playoff. The current qualification group with Serbia, Albania, Latvia and Andorra was potentially awkward rather than daunting.
And yet England are not the only side with a reasonable chance of winning the tournament facing up to the fact that their presence in North America next summer may not be a fait accompli. South American qualifying is as good as done – that 10-team megagroup is now a flawed splurge of largely meaningless content when there are six qualifiers and a playoff spot on offer. Brazil had a real wobble in autumn 2023, losing three games in a row, yet still qualified with ease. All that remains to be settled there is whether Venezuela or Bolivia will take the playoff spot. New Zealand predictably took the Oceanian slot. The usual suspects – Japan, South Korea, Iran and Australia – have qualified from Asia, but so too have the first-timers Jordan and Uzbekistan, with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Oman and Indonesia to contest the final three places.
It’s in Europe and Africa, though, where perceived giants could be in trouble. Morocco, semi-finalists in 2022, have already secured their place. Senegal, though, trail DR Congo by a point with three games to go and face a monumental game in Kinshasa on Tuesday. Lose that and, if they finish as one the best four (of nine) runners-up, they will play off for the right to be Africa’s representative in the intercontinental playoffs (two qualifiers from six). Cameroon, similarly, are a point behind Cape Verde, whom they face in Praia on Tuesday. Nigeria are in an even worse position. They kept hopes alive with an unconvincing 1-0 win over Rwanda on Saturday but lie behind both South Africa and Benin, both of whom they have still to play, in their group.
Europe’s qualifying is not so far advanced and the picture less clear, but Germany’s 2-0 defeat in Slovakia on Thursday added a frisson of anxiety. A home victory over Northern Ireland was necessary but far from comfortable; next month’s game in Belfast looks unexpectedly critical. Belgium’s draw away to North Macedonia in June has them looking anxiously at next month’s game away to Wales, even after comfortable wins this month over Liechtenstein and Kazakhstan.
But it’s Italy, four-time world champions, who, having missed out in 2018 and 2022, are in the biggest trouble. They were beaten 3-0 away to a Norway side finally beginning to play to the level of their best individuals in June and, after drawing 0-0 at home after 45 minutes to Estonia on Friday, there seemed a possibility they might not even take the playoff slot. Five second-half goals changed the mood, but Monday’s fixture against Israel (to be played in Debrecen, Hungary) represents a major test. Lose that, and although they’d have a game in hand, they’d be six points off second.
Even with 48 teams qualifying, in Europe and Africa, World Cup qualification cannot be taken for granted.
This is an extract from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, a weekly look from the Guardian US at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Have a question for Jonathan? Email soccerwithjw@theguardian.com, and he’ll answer the best in a future edition.
