Tua Tagovailoa had his worst game of the 2022 season in Week 13. His Miami Dolphins not only lost, but lost to a San Francisco 49ers team led by 2022 262nd overall draft pick Brock Purdy.
This dented Tagovailoa’s MVP odds, but it wasn’t enough to dislodge him from the top spot in the advanced stats quarterback rankings. He may not claim that crown much longer — Patrick Mahomes, the odds-on favorite to win the league’s highest individual award, is hot on his heels despite a Week 13 loss of his own.
Those two are followed by Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith. As we all expected back in August.
Yep, this year’s crop of top quarterbacks has been the backdrop to impressive leaps forward from questionable passers and terrible slides from established veterans. Hurts and Smith are light years ahead of guys like Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and (big exhale) Russell Wilson this fall. Just how far ahead? Fortunately, we’ve got a formula for that.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 33 quarterbacks (minimum 192 plays) that looks like this:
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
The two-man race at the top
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 0.192 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 0.188
Tagovailoa’s composite dropped by 16 percent in his three-turnover, zero-third-down conversion day against the Niners. Mahomes wasn’t great vs. the Bengals, but his ability to avoid negative plays kept him running and has him primed to reclaim the top spot.
Extremely good quarterbacks
3. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, 0.157 EPA+CPOE composite
4. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 0.156
5. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 0.148
6. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, 0.147
7. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 0.145
Prescott has overcome an awful start and is now pleading his case to be allowed into the circle of trust. Smith and Hurts have already claimed their spots — thanks in large part to the deep ball proficiency of the Ole Miss alumni they’ve got at wideout.
Handsome (and now injured) James
8. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers, 0.130 EPA+CPOE composite
Garoppolo was playing the most efficient football of his career before breaking his foot in Week 13. It’s possible he returns this winter, but if not he’ll hit free agency next spring with a solid resume. Will teams believe in his late renaissance after being initially benched for Trey Lance? Or will a market that didn’t want to pay much for him when he was available via trade last summer continue to fade his capabilities as a playoff QB?
A vast middle ground of guys you do and don't trust
9. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns, 0.105 EPA+CPOE composite
10. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, 0.098
11. Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 0.097
12. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 0.095
13. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.094
14. Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints, 0.093
15. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders, 0.090
16. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 0.084
17. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.083
18. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, 0.082
Is Brissett better than Deshaun Watson? No. Is he better than the version of Watson who played Sunday, his first game in 700 days following more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as “predatory behavior”? Oh yeah. Considerably.
Also, I love ending a tier with mobile quarterbacks. Jackson, Brady and Fields. Three gazelles, bounding through the open meadows of the NFL.
Capable of much, much more (maybe not you, Marcus Mariota)
19. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons, 0.073 EPA+CPOE composite
20. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 0.073
21. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, 0.063
22. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.061
23. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 0.059
24. Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders, 0.053
25. Mac Jones, New England Patriots, 0.051
26. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 0.051
The Packers want Rodgers back for 2023. But his closest QB comps this season are Pickett and Heinicke so … should they? Jones wants to air out the ball more. Given New England’s impotent performance last Thursday, he’s got a point.
The tragic veteran tier
27. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, 0.045 EPA+CPOE composite
28. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos, 0.042
29. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 0.041
30. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders, 0.007
At least Stafford won a Super Bowl last year.
Active detriments to their teams
31. Davis Mills, Houston Texans, -0.002 EPA+CPOE composite
32. Zach Wilson, New York Jets, -0.005
Both have been demoted, ideally never to see the starting lineup again. Carry on.
The Rams' newest QB
33. Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers (now LA Rams), -0.027 EPA+CPOE composite
Things are very, very bad in the Rams offense.
