Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa backslid in Week 7. Now Patrick Mahomes has them in his sights.
The reigning MVP’s steady climb up the advanced stats rankings continued after a comfortable 14-point win over the Los Angeles Chargers Sunday. By leaning on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, Mahomes proved he’s still elite — and the numbers back it up.
He vaulted into third place in this week’s rankings thanks to a 424-yard, four touchdown performance — the fifth 400-yard, four-plus touchdown game of his career to date. Ahead of him lie Purdy and Josh Allen, two quarterbacks who failed to win as road favorites last week but turned in performances that, at the very least, looked decent on the stat sheet despite missed opportunities. With Tagovailoa close behind, these are the four players advanced stats suggest are frontrunners for this year’s MVP race.
Let’s talk about those numbers. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.
The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 33 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 112 snaps in seven weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:
Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect seven-layer system that looks like this:
These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.
The exceedingly reasonable MVP bets
1. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.197 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.190
3. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.187
4. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.185
Purdy threw a pair of fourth quarter interceptions to doom the 49ers comeback hopes against the Minnesota Vikings. Even so, he regained the top spot by virtue of Tagovailoa’s -5.5 EPA performance on Sunday night against the Eagles. Allen missed a few big throws that could have won the day in Foxborough, but ultimately Buffalo’s failure came down to its inability to stop a Mac Jones two-minute drill which, woof.
Guys with MVP credentials (and also Russell Wilson)
5. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.123 EPA+CPOE composite
6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.121
7. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: 0.121
Jackson turned on ludicrous mode to lead his offense to 315 yards … across its first four drives. He finished Week 7 with 22.8 EPA, which still feels low considering how handily he demolished a solid Lions defense. Hurts clearly still isn’t himself in a new Philly offense, which I dissected here. Wilson is not nearly as good as this number suggests and his stats are buoyed by big first half performances that decline significantly after halftime.
The dense upper middle class of QBs
8. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: 0.109 EPA+CPOE composite
9. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.109
10. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.104
11. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.103
12. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.103
13. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.094
Cousins came through in the clutch against a very good 49ers defense, which may not provide much of a future for him in Minnesota but should boost the value of his next contract. Goff’s run as a top five quarterback abruptly ended at the hands of the Ravens, who beat the Lions into a grimy paste. Herbert started the season hot and has now left us wondering whether 2023 will be yet another year of lost potential from him. Mayfield has cooled after a strong start but let’s be honest; him even being a top 20 passer this season is a revelation.
They probably won't directly lose a game for you
14. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.078 EPA+CPOE composite
15. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.071
16. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.070
17. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: 0.065
Lawrence hasn’t quite made the leap we’d expected after last year’s playoff berth, but his Jags have won four straight games and taken control of the AFC South. Stroud looks like a legitimate franchise quarterback in Houston, where he’s either elevating his wideouts or being elevated by them, depending on who you ask. Howell takes too many sacks but he can be a positive force when all breaks right, which is exactly how the Commanders stay in stasis for another five years.
The unremarkables
18. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.050 EPA+CPOE composite
19. Gardner Minshew II, Indianapolis Colts: 0.048
20. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.043
21. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 0.042
22. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: 0.041
23. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.037
24. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons: 0.037
25. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 0.034
26. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.034
27. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.034
Here’s a dense class of players whose fans hoped they’d be just a little bit better in 2023. Love’s inability to throw crisp passes into tight windows downfield has dulled his sheen. Jones is being outplayed by Tyrod Taylor. Young has moments of brilliance but little in the way of a supporting cast to help out when he plays like a rookie. Ridder might be OK, or he might be terrible. No one’s quite sure yet.
Not trustworthy (except for a healed-up Joe Burrow)
28. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: 0.026 EPA+CPOE composite
29. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: 0.023
30. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.015
31. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: 0.015
32. Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals: 0.013
33. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.006
Jones has played his way into the top 30 and Pickett, despite his standing, is 4-2 as a starter in 2023 and 11-7 overall — all great evidence to rebuke whomever suggests Mike Tomlin should ever be fired. Burrow had a bye week to heal up his ailing calf, so his stay on the bottom tier probably won’t last much longer.
