Last week was a perfect run through our official prop bet recommendations. Donovan Peoples-Jones cooked, Justin Fields ran a bunch and Kenny Pickett did Kenny Pickett things, even in victory, that lifted these bets deeper into the black. The only hiccup was Sam Ehlinger’s under 33.5 rushing yards getting scratched when he was pulled from the starting lineup — but since Matt Ryan uncorked a 39-yard scramble against the Las Vegas Raiders, that was probably pretty fortunate.
I backfilled that with two Taylor Heinicke props over on our For The Win Instagram page — over 0.5 interceptions and longest receptions over 33.5 yards. Both hit, so let’s call it a 5-0 week in total. That gets me over the .667/two-thirds win percentage after 10 weeks and while that absolutely won’t last it hopefully led you to a little extra cash.
Here are my plays for Sunday’s games in Week 11.
Terry McLaurin OVER 59.5 receiving yards. McLaurin has 36 targets in his last four games and is, understandably, Taylor Heinicke’s huckleberry downfield. He’s hit 70-plus yards in three of those games and now gets a Houston secondary that’s given up a 119.0 passer rating to opposing QBs over the same stretch.
Justin Fields OVER 68.5 rushing yards. It’s a high total for a quarterback, but Fields just gashed the league’s 27th-ranked rushing defense for 147 yards. Now he gets the 25th-best run-stopping team in Atlanta.
Jonathan Taylor OVER 85.5 rushing yards. Speaking of bad run defenses, here come the Philadelphia Eagles, who’ve given up a shade under 155 rushing yards per game since their bye. Taylor, healthy again, ran 22 times for 147 yards in Jeff Saturday’s coaching debut and remains the most reliable facet of the Indianapolis offense.
Kenny Pickett UNDER 215.5 passing yards. The Bengals have given up fewer than 175 passing yards in four of their last five games. Pickett’s under was the play last week and we’re riding it again.
Russell Wilson OVER 225.5 passing yards. Listen, I don’t like taking a Wilson over any more than you do. But he’s hit this total four of his last five games and now gets the league’s worst passing defense at home. Yes, most of his key wideouts are beat up, but still … it’s the Raiders.
Darnell Mooney OVER 43.5 receiving yards. His over hit by the skin of its teeth in Week 9. In Week 10 he topped it a little more comfortably. But his yardage total remains mired in the low 40s, which means I’m gonna keep hammering it.
Last week: 5-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 49-24 (.671)
My official leans (not plays) for Week 11
Last week’s leans capped off our perfect week with two young tight ends doing enough to hit their yardage totals (Mike Gesicki, Cole Kmet).
- D’Onta Foreman OVER 49.5 rushing yards. Baltimore’s rush defense ranks 19th in DVOA but has given up 92 total rushing yards its last two weeks. Foreman’s hit 100-plus yards in three of his last four games, so even though this total looks like a slam dunk the Ravens’ recent competence and the possibility Carolina trails early drop this into the “maybe” pile.
- Tyler Higbee OVER 42.5 receiving yards. Higbee caught all eight of his targets last week for 73 yards. But that was with John Wolford instead of Matthew Stafford (who has practiced in full this week) and against a Cardinals team that gives up more receptions and receiving yards to tight ends than anyone else.Now he’s got to deal with the Saints, who’ve only given up 31 yards per game to opposing tight ends in 2022. Still, Cooper Kupp is out and someone’s gotta catch passes for the Rams with Cooper Kupp out, and it’s not like this team and its 3.2 yards per carry is going to establish the run all of the sudden.
- Hunter Henry OVER 23.5 receiving yards. Low tight end totals and shaky young quarterbacks paid off last week. Mac Jones is at his best when he can target Henry in the intermediate range.
- Mac Jones UNDER 203.5 passing yards. Right, so I’m kinda not expecting Jones to be at his best, creating a thread-the-needle situation that dropped the Patriot props into “leans.” He hasn’t topped 200 since returning from an ankle injury and the Jets have a top-six passing defense.
Last week: 2-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 29-4 (.879)
