There are some familiar franchises atop the standings in the AFC and NFC entering Week 13, but a few teams picked in the preseason to make deep playoff runs are now desperately scrambling just to get into the playoffs.
Entering Week 13, no team has clinched a playoff berth and no team has been eliminated from contention – mathematically, at least.
With six teams at 8-3, and a logjam of Wild Card contenders with 6-5 and 5-6 records, there’s going to be plenty of movement in the standings in the coming weeks.
To determine each team’s composite playoff chances, we averaged playoff projections from Pro Football Focus and New York Times, as each model had widely varying outlooks for certain teams.
Let’s look at every franchise’s current playoff and Super Bowl chances, starting with the teams already looking ahead to the 2024 NFL Draft.
The teams with no shot:
32. Cardinals (2-10): 0.05% playoff chance
31. Patriots (2-9): 0.065% playoff chance
30. Panthers (1-10): 0.1% playoff chance
29. Commanders (4-8): 0.525% playoff chance
The ultimate longshots:
28. Giants (4-8): 1.63% playoff chance
27. Titans (4-7): 1.68% playoff chance
26. Jets (4-8): 1.73% playoff chance
25. Raiders (5-7): 2.5% playoff chance
24. Bears (4-8): 2.62% playoff chance
23. Bengals (5-6)
Playoff percentage: 6.25%
Win Super Bowl: <1%
Next game: at Jaguars
22. Chargers (4-7)
Playoff percentage: 7.33%
Win Super Bowl: <1%
Next game: at Patriots
21. Bills (6-6)
Playoff percentage: 19.44%
Win Super Bowl: 1.14%
Next game: BYE
20. Buccaneers (4-7)
Playoff percentage: 20.03%
Win Super Bowl: <1%
Next game: vs. Panthers
19. Rams (5-6)
Playoff percentage: 30.04%
Win Super Bowl: <1%
Next game: vs. Browns
18. Broncos (6-5)
Playoff percentage: 35.21%
Win Super Bowl: <1%
Next game: at Texans
17. Colts (6-5)
Playoff percentage: 42.15%
Win Super Bowl: <1%
Next game: at Titans
16. Seahawks (6-5)
Playoff percentage: 42.57%
Win Super Bowl: <1%
Next game: at Cowboys
15. Saints (5-6)
Playoff percentage: 46.07%
Win Super Bowl: <1%
Next game: vs. Lions
14. Texans (6-5)
Playoff percentage: 46.95%
Win Super Bowl: <1%
Next game: vs. Broncos
13. Packers (5-6)
Playoff percentage: 48.06%
Win Super Bowl: <1%
Next game: vs. Chiefs
12. Falcons (5-6)
Playoff percentage: 53.43%
Win Super Bowl: <1%
Next game: at Jets
11. Vikings (6-6)
Playoff percentage: 59.785%
Win Super Bowl: 1.28%
Next game: BYE
10. Browns (7-4)
Playoff percentage: 68.925%
Win Super Bowl: 1.04%
Next game: at Rams
9. Steelers (7-4)
Playoff percentage: 76.28%
Win Super Bowl: 1.5%
Next game: vs. Cardinals
8. Lions (8-3)
Playoff percentage: 96.64%
Win Super Bowl: 4.63%
Next game: at Saints
7. Dolphins (8-3)
Playoff percentage: 96.9%
Win Super Bowl: 9.93%
Next game: at Commanders
6. Jaguars (8-3)
Playoff percentage: 97.615%
Win Super Bowl: 5.56%
Next game: vs. Bengals
5. Cowboys (8-3)
Playoff percentage: 98.37%
Win Super Bowl: 6.88%
Next game: vs. Seahawks
4. Ravens (9-3)
Playoff percentage: 98.745%
Win Super Bowl: 12.2%
Next game: BYE
3. Chiefs (8-3)
Playoff percentage: 98.9%
Win Super Bowl: 14.82%
Next game: at Packers
2. 49ers (8-3)
Playoff percentage: 99.415%
Win Super Bowl: 17.27%
Next game: at Eagles
1. Eagles (10-1)
Playoff percentage: 99.75%
Win Super Bowl: 20.51%
Next game: vs. Niners
