If you missed Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, or Part 5 of the win total prediction series, check them out. This iteration will look at the Cowboys, Vikings, Steelers, and Packer. These are all teams that have the same win total projection of 9.
A reminder about how we are going about this. The structure is simple. Every post will have four teams. There will be a prediction as well as a confidence level. The confidence level will go from one star for the lowest confidence (*) to four stars (****) for the highest confidence. At the end of this exercise, there will be a single post with all of the predictions — and that also allows for changes after training camps wrap up, preseason games finish, trades are finalized, cuts are made and injuries are factored in.
Not familiar with sports wagering terminology? There will be an explanation about gambling odds so no one gets lost. Legalized gambling is already here for a bunch of states, and it’s coming for more. It’s a horrible feeling placing a wager where you don’t understand what’s really going on, so we got you covered. This probably isn’t going to add up to an even amount of wins and losses based on the predictions here. First, that’s tough and second, some bets will be made thinking purely about odds and confidence. Last year, the over-under predictions were 17-13-2.
All win totals will come from Action Network. We will start with the lowest projected win totals and work our way up. That mean’s we will begin with Miami and end with New England.
Anything with a “+” before the number means better odds for the bettor. So +125 means a $100 wager gets you $125 with the win. Anything with a “-” before it means you need to put up that number to get a $100 return. So, a -145 means you need to bet $145 to win $100.
Dallas Cowboys
Win Total: 9 (Over -120 /Under EVEN)
Dallas somehow became one of the biggest news story teams in the league and they didn’t even have any free agent issues. Ezekiel Elliott is holding out and he has two years remaining on his contract. Dak Prescott reportedly demanded $40 million a year. Amari Cooper is going to be a free agent and the Cowboys already gave a first-round pick to the Raiders for his services. There is never a dull moment in Dallas.
As for the team on the field, it’s deep with a lot of talent all over the roster. The biggest thing people will focus on is that Dallas linebacker corp with Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch, and the oft-injured Sean Lee. That’s a very good and athletic linebacker corps. It would have been awesome to be able to play those guys like ten years ago. The problem is that teams are in passing formations, playing out of eleven personnel and using satellite backs so often that really only two of those guys should be playing — with a bigger safety closer to the box. It’s like Dallas invested in bringing in the best possible team for the last decade and not this new era of the NFL.
It’s kind of the same issue for the offense. They need to run the ball to be effective. Elliott is holding out, but the Dallas offensive line is good enough to make Tony Pollard a threat. Prescott will be better throwing off of play-action than he will off of straight dropbacks. He’s a good but not great quarterback with decent arm strength but no one is mistaking him for Patrick Mahomes any time soon. Cooper and Michael Gallup provide interesting threats on the outside. Somehow Jason Witten is back playing football for the Cowboys.
Now we get back to the Cowboys Achilles heel: Jason Garrett. Garrett survived last year because the Cowboys won 10 games. I don’t think the Joneses even thought he would survive and be the head coach this year. It’s another year of waiting on Sean Payton I guess. No one thinks Garrett is a Super Bowl level coach, but he keeps winning just enough to hold on to his job.
Dallas was No. 19 in weighted DVOA in 2018. They had 1.47 wins over expectation which means they were close to an eight-win team than a 10-win team.
Prediction:
The Cowboys are really deep. They have an extremely talented roster. They have a ton of players on contract years looking to perform to get paid going into next season. They are theoretically set up on offense if they can sign the triplets (Prescott, Cooper, Elliott) going into next year. Nine wins seem right on the nose, but if they can have some improvements from younger players and Pollard holds up as a Zeke replacement, they could win 10 games again.
Over 9 wins -120 (Confidence: **)
Minnesota Vikings
Win Total: 9 (Over -120/Under EVEN)
The Vikings entered last season as a team with Super Bowl aspirations. They ended the season not making the playoffs. Disappointment would be an understatement here. They even signed a big-time quarterback to put them over the hump. Speaking of Kirk Cousins, let’s get this out of the way now:
Kirk Cousins Career Stats:
Record in Primetime Games: 6-13
Record on MNF and TNF: 1-12
Record vs. Teams over .500: 5-25
Record vs. Winning Teams in 2018: 1-6
Career Road Record: 13-23-2
Post-season Record: 0-1
If the Vikings really want to win a Super Bowl, that whole section of wins and losses under Cousins is going to have to change.
Maybe it will. The Vikings brought in a new offensive coordinator — well kind of since he’s returning — in Kevin Stefanski. The hope is that Stefanski can bring the Vikings offense to a level where they can be an actual threat this year. A healthy Dalvin Cook should help.
Minnesota’s schedule should do them no favors when it comes to hitting the win total. The NFC North is going to be an all-out battle this year. The Vikings have the Cowboys, Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers, and Falcons for out-of-division difficult games. That’s five teams that could have higher than .500 records this season. Go re-read the stats about Cousins above.
Minnesota ninth in weighted DVOA carried by the fourth-ranked defense. That defense should be that good again, which makes this pick a little more difficult. The Vikings were almost dead on their expected win total last year.
Prediction:
It’s a nine-win team. Well, it’s an 11-win roster but a team that probably isn’t going to do that. They have kicking issues as well which is not what a team that wants to win close games should be having as an issue. Let’s just take the plus number.
Under 9 wins EVEN (Confidence *)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Win Total: 9 (Over -145/Under +125)
Once the Steelers got rid of Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, things got a lot quieter in the Steel City. It’s like they shed two names who were turning into more trouble than their production was worth and things went silent. Nothing to see here.
That’s a huge problem for the NFL. The Steelers are going to be good this year. There is absolutely no reason why they shouldn’t be mentioned in the same breath as the Patriots and Chiefs when it comes to Super Bowl contenders. In fact, those three teams should be grouped at all times when it comes to AFC championship contenders.
The main reason why is that the Steelers defense finally looks like it might live up to its old reputation. There is depth everywhere. The Steelers secondary should be much better this year. Artie Burns looks like he has improved mightily. Joe Haden isn’t the old Haden, but he’s still consistent and won’t be targeted. The Steelers pass rush has multiple options. Devin Bush is filling the large hole left by Ryan Shazier. If the Steelers defense isn’t good this year, it will be due to coaching and game plan, not talent. They absolutely tore apart some opponents in the preseason.
As for the offense, there’s no reason to think it won’t perform at the level it has in past years. Juju Smith-Schuster will see more double coverage, but the Steelers have other threats with Donte Moncrief and James Washington. At this point, we should be giving Pittsburgh the benefit of the doubt when it comes to their receivers. James Conner proved he can fill right in for Le’Veon Bell last year. Ben Roethlisberger will perform through some mysterious injury.
Prediction:
Everyone loves the Browns this year, but the Steelers are better. The Steelers may be better than the Patriots. They are just a level below the Chiefs. The Steelers are good. Nothing has changed. This one is easy for me.
Over 9 wins -145 (Confidence ****)
Green Bay Packers
Win Total: 9 (Over -130 /Under +110)
The normal thing to do with the Packers is to check the depth chart, look under the quarterback line item, see Aaron Rodgers name there, double-check — see what I did there? — to make sure Rodgers name is still there, and pencil the Packers in for 10-wins.
If you did that last year you would not have won your bet. In fact, you would have lost your bet by a lot. Green Bay finished with six wins last year. A record with six wins is not good — as a reminder.
Sure, Green Bay changed coaches and brought in Matt LaFleur, but the rumblings behind the scenes have been a bit unsettling. If we are to believe the Bleacher Report article from the offseason, Rodgers purposely tanked the team to get his way. He set the Packers ship on fire, hopped in a lifeboat, and sailed away. Think about any other big-name quarterback being accused of essentially purposefully going against his coach to get his coach fired and what the blowback would be. We heard about Rodgers for all of two weeks and then moved on. If that was Roethlisberger, Brady, or anyone else, the think pieces would have been innumerable.
The Packers played in free agency this year to improve their defense. Za’Darius Smith could be good, but he could have also benefitted from the Ravens system. Mike Daniels is no longer with the team. Adrian Amos was a great signing. Green Bay will be starting rookie Darnell Savage. The rest of the defense seems pretty familiar.
It’s the offense that needs to take steps forward, but they will be relying heavily on Davante Adams. The depth at wide receiver that Rodgers benefitted from in the past is no longer really there unless you love Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Plus, what happens in a very tough division when LaFleur and Rodgers have a disagreement. We all trust Rodgers to go with the plan now? The schedule isn’t easy. They will face good defenses. They will have some disagreements. It should make Packers fans a bit nervous.
Prediction:
Let’s play with fire here. Nine wins is the number I would pick exactly. Nine games seem right. Take the plus number and walk away from the betting cage. The Bears have a deeper roster. The Vikings have a deeper roster. The Lions will try to grind the Packers out. The rest of the Packers schedule is not easy.
Under 9 games +110 (Confidence: **)
