If you missed Part 1, Part 2 or Part 3 of the win total prediction series, check them out. This iteration will look at the Colts — timely! — Jaguars, Niners and Titans. These are all teams that are expected to be right around .500.
A reminder about how we are going about this. The structure is simple. Every post will have four teams. There will be a prediction as well as a confidence level. The confidence level will go from one star for the lowest confidence (*) to four stars (****) for the highest confidence. At the end of this exercise, there will be a single post with all of the predictions — and that also allows for changes after training camps wrap up, preseason games finish, trades are finalized, cuts are made and injuries are factored in.
Not familiar with sports wagering terminology? There will be an explanation about gambling odds so no one gets lost. Legalized gambling is already here for a bunch of states, and it’s coming for more. It’s a horrible feeling placing a wager where you don’t understand what’s really going on, so we got you covered. This probably isn’t going to add up to an even amount of wins and losses based on the predictions here. First, that’s tough and second, some bets will be made thinking purely about odds and confidence. Last year, the over-under predictions were 17-13-2.
All win totals will come from Action Network. We will start with the lowest projected win totals and work our way up. That mean’s we will begin with Miami and end with New England.
Anything with a “+” before the number means better odds for the bettor. So +125 means a $100 wager gets you $125 with the win. Anything with a “-” before it means you need to put up that number to get a $100 return. So, a -145 means you need to bet $145 to win $100.
Indianapolis Colts
Win Total: 7.5 (Over EVEN /Under -120)
The Colts win total obviously dropped once it was announced that Andrew Luck would no longer play football this season — or any more for that matter. This makes picking an over-under win total for the Colts extremely difficult.
We can’t use last years expected wins — which the Colts underperformed their expected win total from last year — because last year’s team had Luck under center. Throw out the offensive DVOA where Indy finished 10th for the same reason. We are going into a season where nothing should surprise when it comes to Indianapolis.
Here’s what we do know. Their offensive line should be good. That helps quarterbacks. Their offensive line was good last year once they finally invested in it — I bet Jim Irsay wishes he did that or fired Ryan Grigson earlier — to make it a strength. Their defense is young and athletic. They built a wide receiving corps in the offseason that was fetching rave reviews from every corner of the internet. We think Frank Reich is a good coach. The Colts were being picked by some as a Super Bowl contender, nevermind a potential winner of the AFC South. The Colts were supposed to be very good.
Jacoby Brissett isn’t Luck, but he’s not that bad. He has experience in the system. He’s been a starter before. He’s backed up Luck and Tom Brady — kind of — and he was looking for a chance to start. It’s not as if the Colts have absolutely no answer. They have a very strong team and a replacement-level quarterback. That’s not all that bad.
Prediction:
I’ve seen this line as low as 6.5. That’s a full-win lower than where it is now and the odds aren’t that heavy on either side. That’s a huge change from where it was before with many books having the Colts at 10 wins. The Colts aren’t that bad. They don’t face a brutal schedule. They will be the definition of okay. That’s 8 wins. This feels like an overreaction. The Colts are talented, deep, well-coached, and will have a plan. Next year they can mortgage their future on a potential generation quarterback by trading all their draft picks to get Jake Fromm or Justin Herbert.
Over 7.5 wins EVEN (Confidence: **)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Win Total: 8 (Over -120/Under EVEN)
The Jaguars don’t have Blake Bortles anymore which must make the internet and the Blake Bortles’ facts twitter handle very sad. Instead, they have former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles at the helm. We have seen very little of Foles during the preseason due to injury.
That’s what has to scare the Jaguars the most. Their offensive line is not deep. Their receiving corps is unproven. Their running back situation is a bit odd because Leonard Fournette has been a bit of a disappointment. Foles is an upgrade from Bortles, but this isn’t the playoffs where Foles suddenly excels.
The defense is solid and has the same talent from two years ago. The problem is that was two years ago. The defense took a step back and regressed to the mean — as defenses often do from year to year. Yannick Ngakoue wanted a new deal and didn’t get one. He’ll be unhappy this season. We all know that Jalen Ramsey wants to get paid. Telvin Smith will be taking 2019 off. Myles Jack is entering the last year of his rookie deal. It’s a situation ripe for problems.
Jacksonville finished 22nd in overall weight DVOA last season. They were right at their expected win mark — five actual wins, 5.29 expected — last season.
Prediction:
We really expect Nick Foles to be worth three wins for the Jaguars? Even the best players in football aren’t worth three wins. Are we sure Doug Marrone is good? The Jaguars have an easy-ish schedule which is the only reason to take the over.
Under 8 wins EVEN (Confidence ***)
San Francisco 49ers
Win Total: 8 (Over -140/Under +120)
Well, it’s time. We’ve been hearing for years that Kyle Shanahan is a genius coach. There is another genius coach in the same division about a six-hour-drive south. That genius coach has made it to the playoffs for two years consecutively and made one Super Bowl. Shanahan has strung together 10 wins. Sure, McVay has Jared Goff and Todd Gurley. He has one of the best defensive players in the league. He hasn’t had to deal with major injuries, but 10 wins is not good no matter how we cut it. The Niners need to win and they need to win this year otherwise, Shanahan needs to be questioned just a little bit. Please give me a second to back away from the internet attacking me like crazy.
Shanahan will get his chance this year. He will have a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo. He will have another year of Greg Kittle. He will have two healthy pretty good running backs in Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida. The offensive line should be good and has played together for a while. The only real holes on offense look to be at wide receiver, but Shanahan’s scheme is good enough that these guys should be open.
As for the defense . . . no one knows what to expect and in all honestly that’s what has been holding the Niners back for some time now. They invested heavily on that side of the football bring in Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander. They drafted Nick Bosa. They had talent there with DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead. It’s time for it all to come together.
The Niners underperformed their win expectation by 1.19 games last season. That’s good news. Their DVOA numbers were very bad, but maybe that’s to be expected when they lost their quarterback for the entire year very early on.
Prediction:
San Francisco’s schedule is absolutely brutal this year. Sure, they can get two wins from the Cardinals, but they could lose both games of the home and home to the Rams and the Seahawks. They also play the AFC North which means matchups against the Steelers, Ravens, and Browns. They play the NFC South which means games against the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers. They even play Green Bay. Going .500 against that slate would be an accomplishment. Give me the plus odds.
Under 8 wins +120 (Confidence ***)
Tennessee Titans
Win Total: 8 (Over EVEN /Under -120)
Another year, another offensive coordinator for Marcus Mariota. It’s bad enough that Mariota seems to get hurt a lot recently. Now he has to deal with injury and he has to deal with a new offensive coordinator again. He also has to deal with Ryan Tannehill breathing down his neck trying to take his job. He has a head coach with absolutely no loyalty toward him because Mike Vrabel didn’t pick Mariota. It’s a bad scene in Nashville.
The Titans defense should be good. The offense should be mediocre. They’ll figure out a way to play way over their heads — like they did against the Patriots last year — and then figure out a way to lose a game they should have won. We know what the Titans are by now, and that could be because we should realize what Marcus Mariota is as a quarterback — solid but unspectacular.
The analytics put the Titans at No. 20 in total DVOA and 18 in weighted DVOA. They outperformed their expected win total by .74 games last season.
They haven’t looked great in the preseason. The offensive line could be a problem. Derrick Henry couldn’t be stopped at the end of last season, but that’s probably not happening again.
Prediction:
The Titans are kind of boring, but they have a very good chance of beating their win total this year. All they need to do is beat the Colts twice, the Jaguars twice, and split with the Texans. After that, they can definitely get two wins against the Raiders and Broncos. They face the Bills which could be another win. There are too many chances at wins here for the Titans to take the under even though I really want to take the under.
Over8 games EVEN (Confidence: *)
