I was faced with a tough decision after the shocking news broke of the Cowboys trading Micah Parsons to the Packers.
Either I stand pat and keep the Packers off my projected playoff bracket or do I rush to plead with my editors to let me change my preseason picks a few days before publication?
I decided to stick with my original playoff picks and was O.K. with looking foolish for not having the Packers in my field after their Super Bowl stock soared. But I will admit I kicked myself for not swapping the Packers and Panthers after Green Bay crushed Detroit in the season opener.
Yes, I know I should have kicked myself twice for having the Panthers as a playoff team. But somehow my decision to not pencil in the Packers to the postseason is not looking so bad after they lost to the Browns and tied with the Cowboys.
I won’t take a victory lap beyond what I’ve just typed because, again, I picked the Panthers. But we can at least discuss the possibility of the Packers being more pretenders than contenders to kick off NFL Fact or Fiction this week.
We crowned the Packers way too soon
After the Packers improved to 2–0, they became the betting favorites to win the NFC and had the same Super Bowls odds as the Bills, going from 20-1 odds before the Parsons trade to being listed as +675 favorites to win it all.
Oh, how quickly the NFL landscape changes. Many of us were quick to crown the Packers for beating up the Lions and Commanders in the first two weeks and overlooked all the issues on the offensive side that were exposed in the loss against the Browns.
To make matters worse, the Packers’ defense hasn’t been as impressive the past two weeks and struggled to disrupt Dak Prescott’s rhythm in the 40–40 tie last week.
With Green Bay’s defense possibly not being as good as we thought and Jordan Love still showing growing pains in Year 3 as the starter, what do the Packers really have that’s special? They look more like pretenders than contenders through the first month of the season.
At this point, we can probably list three or four better teams than the Packers in the NFC. I would rather take the Eagles, Rams, Buccaneers and the Lions. Yes, the Packers beat the Lions, but the flat performance might have been more about the players adjusting to their new coordinators because they’ve been unstoppable during their three-game winning streak.
We’ll find out more about the two top teams in the NFC North when they meet again in November. For now, let’s pump the brakes on the Packers hype.
Manzano’s view: Fact
Browns will regret starting Dillon Gabriel vs. Vikings
I got ahead of this one when I wrote Sunday night that the Browns should follow the Giants’ lead and start rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Wednesday morning that the rookie quarterback will replace Joe Flacco as the starter for Week 5.
Having a rookie signal-caller make his debut against Brian Flores’s Vikings defense is certainly a risky decision, but we just saw Jaxson Dart hold his own against the Chargers’ stacked defense. And it’s not all about the final score. It’s more about the Browns seeing what they have in Gabriel.
At 1–3, the odds are against the Browns making the playoffs. But Gabriel performing well and flashing long-term potential could dictate how the team operates in the offseason. If he’s more of a backup, then the Browns have two first-round picks to possibly select a quarterback high in next year’s draft.
Manzano’s view: Fiction
Ravens, Chiefs, Broncos will all make the playoffs
This one would have looked a lot bolder last week, but even with the Chiefs and Broncos winning in Week 4 and returning to .500, this is still bold enough to merit discussion—especially because the Ravens’ Super Bowl hopes are on life support after being crushed in Kansas City and an injury wave that likely won’t let up any time soon. Lamar Jackson could reportedly miss two to three weeks due to his hamstring injury.
Still, this is not the time to panic in Baltimore, not when the current AFC playoff picture is filled with pretenders. At 2–2, the Chiefs are currently the seventh seed and the Broncos are sitting in eighth place with plenty of football still left in the season.
As for the Ravens, they just need a few teams to fade while they lick their wounds before making a late postseason push. The Bengals, the current No. 6 seed, already deserve to be forked. And it wouldn’t be surprising if the Steelers, Jaguars or Colts fade in the next two months.
After the Ravens’ Week 8 bye, the schedule gets easier with a grand opportunity to stack enough victories to even push for the AFC North title during a down year for the division.
Manzano’s view: Fact
Seahawks deserve more respect as NFC contenders
I can’t believe I’m going to say this, but I can’t call the Seahawks (3–1) contenders until they unleash Sam Darnold. The Seattle coaching staff is holding him back with several conservative decisions.
There’s nothing wrong with having a balanced attack, but every time Darnold generated an explosive play against the Cardinals last week, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak called multiple running plays to derail the drive. In similar over-conservative fashion, coach Mike Macdonald tends to settle for field goals at the worst time.
Also, I need to see more from Macdonald’s defense. The unit allowed the Cardinals to make a late rally and failed to stop Brock Purdy when it mattered most during Week 1 against the 49ers. I’ll wait for the outcome of Seahawks vs. Buccaneers this week before giving Darnold’s team more respect.
Manzano’s view: Fiction
Monday night doubleheaders should continue for years to come
I’ll keep this short. Please, no more Monday night doubleheaders. We rarely get two exciting games in prime time anyway. It was rough watching the ugly football that Bengals-Broncos and Dolphins-Jets produced.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as We Deemed the Packers Super Bowl Contenders Too Soon.
