Arguably no position in professional sports faces as much of a stiff learning curve to succeed than an NFL quarterback.
It’s a job with a significant and often overwhelming undertaking, which is a big reason why, to this day, drafting and successfully developing an NFL quarterback can be a crapshoot. If quarterback development was boiled down to an effective science, Carson Wentz would not be starting for the Commanders, and Mitchell Trubisky would not be the Steelers’ current stopgap.
Last year’s top rookie quarterbacks — Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Davis Mills — will be entering the 2022 season with expectations that they’ve started to grasp playing the position as a professional. Of course, while the signal-callers are beginning their second year, each is in a far different place in their development and has a different situation with their coaching staff and supporting casts (or lack thereof).
Which, I’ll be honest: The outlook doesn’t look ideal for any of these young passers at the moment. But that’s an offseason/preseason evaluation. We might soon be singing the praises of some of these young men in the coming weeks and months. Every young quarterback “stinks” or “isn’t ready for the big time” until they finally blossom.
Here’s a predictive outlook at the six second-year quarterbacks who enter 2022 as the unquestioned starters on their respective squads. Note: All Expected Points Added stats via rbdsm.com/stats, and this list is in no particular order.
(In case you missed it: Our Christian D’Andrea broke down when to expect the first start for the 2022 rookie quarterbacks.)
1
Davis Mills, Houston Texans
2021 stats:
- 13 appearances, 11 starts
- 2,664 passing yards, 66.8 completion percentage
- 16 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, five fumbles
- 6.7 yards gained per attempt, -0.082 Expected Points Added (per play)
Mills came on as a bit of a surprise last season. Coming out of Stanford, he was easily the least-touted amongst his fellow starting peers. But even then, Mills gave an impossibly bad Texans squad some aspiration for the future with a promising debut year.
Let Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil share his thoughts about the second-year quarterback:
#Texans LT Laremy Tunsil was asked about Davis Mills today.
Here was his response: pic.twitter.com/yEUpkGTvLH
— Apollo Texans (@ApolloTexans) August 1, 2022
Succinct but salient!
Mills’ breakout moment as a rookie might have come when he cut up the Patriots — a Bill Belichick defense — to the tune of 312 yards, three touchdowns, zero picks (!) and a 10.76 yards gained per attempt average in a Week 5 matchup. Houston eventually lost, 25-22, but it wasn’t for a lack of effort on the part of Mills. From there on in, it was mostly smooth sailing for him. If he wasn’t benched for incumbent starter Tyrod Taylor at midseason, the young QB might have an even firmer place in conversations about huge leaps this year.
The Texans are in the middle of a full-scale rebuild, so their bare-bones (but intriguing) roster almost certainly won’t be considered Super Bowl-worthy for a little while. That said, another year with minimal pressure to actually win games could be good for Mills’ development. He might be the embodiment of the adage, “Nobody Believes in Us,” but as a solo quarterback. And with low expectations comes potentially better performance. Plus, there are enough pieces in place like Tunsil, Brandin Cooks and Dameon Pierce to help make Mills’ sophomore NFL season a step forward.
If Mills can build more consistency on top of the occasional flashes from 2021, then Houston might have its long-term franchise player under center. There’s enough of a fascinating ball of clay here to have optimism moving forward.
2022 outlook: Promising, with a tinge of hope
2
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
2021 stats:
- 17 appearances, 17 starts (one playoff start)
- 3,801 passing yards, 67.6 completion percentage
- 22 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, seven fumbles
- 7.3 yards gained per attempt, 0.123 Expected Points Added (per play)
Jones was the fifth quarterback selected in the 2021 draft and easily had the best rookie campaign. On a 10-7 playoff team, Jones wasn’t a superstar by any means. But the smash-mouth Patriots, with a top-5 defense in Football Outsiders‘ DVOA efficiency, didn’t need a field-tilter under center. They just needed someone who could run the offense and make the occasional big play downfield. Which, to be clear, Jones did! He was in the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation for most of the season until Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase decided to explode down the stretch.
.@MacJones_10's FIRST career touchdown 👏 #ForeverNE
(Via: @NFL)pic.twitter.com/ttAE0rMvH7
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) September 12, 2021
My question with Jones moving forward, and it’s a big one, is: How high is his ceiling, really?
I know Jones undoubtedly thinks highly of himself (and he should! He’s a pro athlete). And I know apparently NFL players also think highly of him (as misguided as it may be). But aside from a lack of top-end receivers, Jones was in a perfect situation as a rookie.
Jones had a great offensive line with multiple high-level starters (Trent Brown, Shaq Mason, Isaiah Wynn). In complementary support, he had an elite defense that could take over games — again with multiple high-level starters (J.C. Jackson, Matt Judon, Christian Barmore). Plus, he had perhaps the best coach in NFL history orchestrating his comfort. Despite all that, rookie or not, I would say he was only kind of OK? In a perfect situation for a young passer, I wanted to see more.
Entering Year 2 of his career, there will be expectations on Jones to ascend performance-wise, and I’m not sure he can. He might be able to understand defenses better after having seen live bullets for a little while, but that doesn’t translate into better play when those defenses also have film on you. Players with his physical limitations, who don’t have any elite weapons, typically don’t fluctuate much in performance.
Lest we forget that Josh McDaniels, a bona fide offensive guru and the hand-holding steward behind Jones’ steady rookie year, is now the head coach in Las Vegas. (Oh, and Jackson and Mason are gone, too!).
By early accounts, that transition to life without McDaniels isn’t going well for Jones:
Joint practice is over in Nevada and there’s no doubt over which team was better. The Patriots struggled on both sides of the ball against the Raiders, but the offense was especially bad. Mac Jones and Co. struggled to move the ball until the two-minute drill.
— Chad Graff (@ChadGraff) August 23, 2022
Ultimately, I think Jones is in for a solid NFL career as a starter. He’ll never be a rusty anchor that drags the Patriots down. But, based on the trajectory of the other AFC heavyweights where a star QB is practically a necessity to contend, I have my doubts that Jones ever reaches that standard. Questions should remain on whether he’s ever the player that lifts New England. Even if he eventually does, his sophomore NFL year in 2022 will likely present more growing pains than his rookie season before he finally grows up.
2022 outlook: A little overrated and on the downswing
3
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
2021 stats:
- 12 appearances, 10 starts
- 1,870 passing yards, 58.9 completion percentage
- Seven touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 12 fumbles
- 6.9 yards gained per attempt, -0.104 Expected Points Added (per play)
Fields might be the most naturally gifted amongst his 2021 draft peers, and that could take him far. He’s got a cannon of an arm and impeccable instincts as a runner. Despite a complete lack of cohesion on offense and so many moving parts around him, Fields showed enough game-breaking ability as a rookie to where you think he could be a franchise quarterback down the line.
Performances against the Steelers in a primetime road matchup — where Fields almost led the Bears back from a 20-6 fourth-quarter deficit — along with his play versus eventual NFC runner-up San Francisco should inspire a measure of optimism in Chicago.
Of all the dimes #Bears QB Justin Fields dropped vs. Steelers, this throw was my favorite. Four verts from 13 personnel against Cover-3. Five-step drop, one hitch, very aggressive into a tight window. From a closing pocket, digs his cleats into the dirt and takes a shot. Beauty. pic.twitter.com/nO1pX8QVPS
— dan durkin (@djdurkin) November 20, 2021
8⃣ Week 8 → @49ers 🆚 @ChicagoBears
A Chicago le dicen 'Windy City', la ciudad del viento.
Tras años sintiendo una suave brisa, por fin ha llegado un huracán.
Justin Fields y su touchdown.
Se avecina tormenta. 🌪️🏈#DaBears #NFLpic.twitter.com/UMYAMrMvWh— Ready Hut (@Ready_Hut) March 7, 2022
With all that said, little of note has changed for Fields regarding offensive moving parts. That’s, how do I put this: bleak!
Allen Robinson is now a Ram. Matt Nagy is riding the coattails of Patrick Mahomes (godspeed, Mahomes). The offensive line, with three new projected starters (Braxton Jones, Lucas Patrick and Teven Jenkins at guard), might have promise but is definitely more patchwork for now.
Aside from a full commitment as the long-term starter, the most significant direct change for Fields is hiring former Packers’ offensive mind Luke Getsy as offensive coordinator. To his credit, Getsy appears to understand what Fields does well (big-game hunting downfield; more play-action) and where he has to improve (quicker decision-making, taking what the defense gives you). But a new coach and scheme can only take you so far. Darnell Mooney might be a nice player, but everyone else Fields will throw to this season is a glorified journeyman. A great quarterback might be able to keep a mediocre team afloat, but you’re otherwise playing with fire when they have to carry the load by themselves week in and week out.
Unfortunately, while Fields has likely progressed a lot on an individual level, he’s in the worst situation of all his fellow 2021 picks… by far. That doesn’t spell out good things for his near future. If a rising tide lifts all boats, a low tide strands them in the harbor. Fields’ boat is dredged up in muck, sitting at the bottom of a dry Lake Michigan bed.
2022 outlook: Grim, with more flashes of quality
4
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 stats:
- 17 appearances, 17 starts
- 3,641 passing yards, 59.6 completion percentage
- 12 touchdowns, two interceptions, nine fumbles
- 6.0 yards gained per attempt, -0.030 Expected Points Added (per play)
Many touted Lawrence as the next Big Thing as the arguable Golden Boy of the 2021 draft. The new “Peyton Manning/Andrew Luck” sure-fire prospect who was bound to be an NFL superstar. Little did Lawrence know that Jacksonville’s initial grand design for him was letting the loathsome malcontent known as Urban Meyer try to develop him.
The results were predictable. Meyer unsurprisingly cut bait at the first opportunity, the Jaguars finished with the league’s worst record for the second-straight season and Lawrence tried to dust himself off from the chaos. To be determined on how successful he was in that endeavor.
At first glance, you might think Lawrence had a solid rookie year through 17 starts. But an average of 6.0 yards gained per attempt average on 602 passing attempts is, for lack of a better word, appalling. That speaks to a quarterback who rarely took chances downfield and was saddled in an offensive scheme that seemed to mandate that by design. The NFL of 2022 is a big-play league. You either go big, or you go home. Lawrence’s 3-14 Jaguars went home a lot.
Here’s a list of a few notable names who had better YPAs than Lawrence last season:
- Andy Dalton (6.4)
- Ben Roethlisberger (6.2)
- Sam Darnold (6.2)
None of these quarterbacks are starters anywhere this year, nor do they have the talent of Lawrence. When discussing Lawrence’s rookie year — and I want to stress this isn’t hyperbole — we are talking about one of the least efficient 3,600-plus passing-yard campaigns I can remember. Now you know why Lawrence threw just two picks.
Entering 2022, I’m willing to give the NFL’s version of Thor some benefit of the doubt. Like his friend in Chicago, Meyer’s “coaching” staff didn’t do Lawrence any favors. Jacksonville also arguably had the least-talented team in football overall. (When you get the top pick, that’s obvious.) By contrast, I think Doug Pederson is the perfect mentor to help Lawrence right the ship and start to gain more confidence downfield against tighter NFL windows.
Look at this throw against the Steelers during this preseason. The Lawrence of 2021 doesn’t even consider trying to make this dart of a pass over layered coverage:
Trevor Lawrence giving Cameron Sutton the Mutombo finger after this throw pic.twitter.com/z8wE70mzRe
— SharpClarke (@SharpClarkeNFL) August 21, 2022
And even if the Jaguars’ receiving corps is still pretty mediocre and expensive overall, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones are a heck of a lot better than what they had in the past. Yeah, it’s not a high bar, but we’ll take it.
Is Lawrence going to start to live up to the hype and have a Pat Mahomes 2018 or Josh Allen 2020 level jump? Probably not. But the set-up of stability with actual mature grown-ups in Jacksonville tells me there’s enough to start seeing the light for a former top quarterback prospect. Baby steps count, too.
2022 outlook: Back on the right track, on the upswing
5
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
2021 stats:
- 13 appearances, 13 starts
- 2,334 passing yards, 55.6 completion percentage
- Nine touchdowns, 11 interceptions, five fumbles
- 6.1 yards gained per attempt, -0.139 Expected Points Added (per play)
Do you see Wilson’s EPA right there? Have you processed it? What about the 6.1 yards per attempt? Put those metrics together, and Zach Wilson was the NFL’s worst starting quarterback during the 2021 season. By a mile. It’s not even close.
Unlike Wilson’s risk-averse friend in Jacksonville, the 2021 Jets didn’t necessarily shy away from throwing the ball downfield. They routinely wanted the top-2 pick in Wilson to let the ball fly and see what happens. Let’s just say it didn’t work out.
According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson averaged 11.8 yards per pass attempt as a rookie. He ranked 25th or worse in deep-passing grade, turnover-worthy plays and deep accuracy. He was the epitome of a quarterback who took chances and didn’t capitalize on many of them.
Zach Wilson throwing his 6th interception of the yearpic.twitter.com/zo99rmUZqg
— Covers (@Covers) September 26, 2021
However, a significant caveat is that mentality could have been Wilson working out his kinks. I would rather see a young passer take shots and fail in every instance rather than belabor themselves in a dink-and-dunk offense. The glass-half-full perspective for Wilson is that the only way to learn is through failure. After NFL defenses tormented him as a rookie, maybe Wilson is prepared to soar. The glass-half-empty side of the matter could mean Wilson isn’t fit to be an NFL starter.
Heading into Year 2, the Jets have placed high expectations on their signal-caller. New York added Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Jeremy Ruckert and Tyler Conklin on offense in one offseason. Even without franchise tackle Mehki Becton in the fold, that is a promising, developing attack with a solid variety of weapons on paper. Everyone in New York is curious to find out about the green-and-white elephant in the room: Whether Wilson can maximize this gifted group’s potential.
Wilson is currently sitting out until the regular season as he recently underwent arthroscopic knee surgery. He and the Jets already avoided the worst-case scenario — missing an all-important Year 2 in his growth. Now it’s on the quarterback to return healthy and dramatically improve upon an NFL debut that was memorable for all the wrong reasons.
2022 outlook: Questionable but in a strong position to thrive
6
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
*2021 stats:
- Six appearances, two starts
- 603 passing yards, 57.7 completion percentage
- Five touchdowns, two interceptions
- 8.5 yards gained per attempt
I put an asterisk on Lance’s stats as a rookie because he didn’t play much! Lance played so minimally that he didn’t even qualify under the minimum 320 snaps required to have his EPA charted. If you were to ignore all other contexts — like the number of games (again, just two starts) and snaps (71 pass attempts) Lance played in 2021 — his 8.5 yards gained per pass attempt would’ve ranked third in the NFL. You would’ve thought he was a superstar if you glossed over his sample size of playing time.
Of all the second-year quarterbacks on this list — even with another offseason under his belt — Lance is the one we understand the least about in regard to game action. Such a reality could understandably paint him as a huge question mark, but I think it’s an advantage in his current situation.
Because, unlike the other young QBs profiled here, Lance hasn’t had the opportunity to have his well poisoned. He wasn’t thrown to the wolves behind a terrible offensive line with a poor offensive scheme. He didn’t make many mistakes because he didn’t have the opportunity to. Does that mean we’ll undoubtedly see more growing pains than expected from a second-year player? I’d say so. But it also means the 49ers — who have a mostly excellent offensive line (interior questions aside), an elite set of weapons and the best play-caller in football in Kyle Shanahan — can ease in their quarterback of the future without worrying about ruining his confidence. Lance doesn’t have to do much on a loaded squad right away, and he probably won’t be asked to for a while because the 49ers were/are patient with his development.
When Lance gets comfortable in his full-time role, the 49ers — already an NFC heavyweight — could be one of pro football’s consistent premium Super Bowl contenders. With his mobility and rocket arm, the former North Dakota State product would add yet another potent element to an already electric San Francisco offense. He might even be the missing piece to the puzzle. After all, the lack of a dynamic quarterback was the main flaw of a team that went to the Super Bowl and two NFC title games in the last three seasons.
Could you imagine Lance taking off for 40 yards against man coverage like it’s just a part of his usual repertoire? What about him launching lasers downfield to Deebo Samuel, Bradon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Danny Gray? It’s already easy to envision:
Trey Lance. Danny Gray. Touchdown. pic.twitter.com/gY2np4grnI
— 49ersSpin (@49ersSpin) August 13, 2022
The 49ers took their time with the 2021 No. 3 overall pick. I think that patience is about to pay off with flying red and gold colors.
2022 outlook: Some rough patches, but mostly incandescent
