Unemployment in New Zealand remains at 5.1 per cent, defying expectations of a peak above COVID-19 levels.
Stats NZ reported the steady figure for the March 2025 quarter on Wednesday, when major banks had pencilled in growth to 5.3 per cent.
Joblessness is on the rise in New Zealand, emerging from a deep recession last year, ticking up 0.7 per cent in the last 12 months.
This figure will bring confidence that this figure is the top of the cycle, with employment levels improving as economic growth ticks up.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis said she knew "people are still struggling in this economy" but called the result "encouraging".
Analysts also believe the data will confirm the Reserve Bank's rate-cutting path, with the official cash rate at 3.5 per cent and expected to be slashed to at least three per cent in the next two meetings.
"We look to be close to the cyclical peak in unemployment but will need to see the tentative NZ economic recovery become more established so that firms have the rationale and confidence to increase hiring," Mark Smith, ASB senior economist, said.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, joblessness peaked at 5.2 per cent - well below Australia's 7.5 per cent.
However, the tables have now turned, with Australia's unemployment rate under 4.5 per cent for more than three years, and New Zealand jumping up above that level for the last year.
Translated into raw figures, there are 156,000 unemployed Kiwis - up 21,000 or 16.5 per cent in a year - and a total workforce of 2.9 million.
Wage growth moderated to 0.5 per cent in the March quarter, or 2.9 per cent in the previous 12 months.
At 4.2 per cent growth, public sector wage growth outstripped private sector growth, at 2.6 per cent, in the past year.
There has also been a demonstrable shift among many from full-time to part-time work: 45,000 fewer Kiwis are working full-time than a year ago, with 25,000 more part-time workers.
"Approximately 21 per cent of employed people work part-time - 12 per cent of men and 30 per cent of women," Stats NZ spokeswoman Abby Johnston said.
"While unemployment was unchanged over the quarter, longer term trends mean the labour market appears quite different to the same quarter last year."
The opposition Labour party said fewer jobs and smaller pay rises would see "more Kiwis out of work and leaving for Australia".
