New Holyrood polling shows Reform UK tie with Labour as SNP out in front

REFORM and Scottish Labour are neck-and-neck in a new poll on how Scots intend to vote in the 2026 Holyrood elections – while Nigel Farage’s party are ahead in Westminster polling.

A new survey of Scottish voters published on Thursday also shows that the SNP are out in front by a significant margin in voting intention for both the Scottish and UK Parliaments.

The More in Common survey of 1104 Scots voters put the SNP on 37% of the Holyrood constituency vote, compared to Labour on 17% and Reform on 16%. The Tories and LibDems were tied on 12%, while the Greens polled at 5%.

(Image: More in Common) On the Holyrood regional list vote, the SNP were again out in front on 32%. Reform and Labour both polled at 16%, while the LibDems took 14% and the Tories 12%. The Greens registered 8% on the list.

(Image: More in Common) More in Common UK director Luke Tryl said: “It seems that voters in Scotland are delivering a verdict of ‘a pox on all your houses’. 

“The SNP are way down on their 2021 vote, but Labour are also struggling to match what was already a historically bad result for the party. 

“Meanwhile the Scottish Tories are facing electoral oblivion. The only winners seem to be Reform UK, with Nigel Farage proving his new party can compete north of the Border and the Liberal Democrats up on their 2021 vote.”

Westminster voting

More in Common also asked voters which party they would support in a Westminster General Election. It found the SNP ahead on 31%, with Reform UK in second place on 21%.

Labour, who last year won a decisive victory in Scottish constituencies, polled at just 17%. The LibDems and Tories both registered 11%, with the Greens on 6%.

SNP MP Pete Wishart said it was "simply a stunning opinion poll".

"SNP miles ahead and it's neck and neck between Labour and Reform," he went on. "You can only imagine the atmosphere between Scots Lab MSPs and MPs when it looks like the latter have deprived them of any real chance of pulling it off next year."

(Image: More in Common) Elsewhere, the polling contains further bad news for Labour, as it found that just 13% think the party taking power in Westminster has been good for the people Scotland.

A total of 56% said that the new Labour Government had been bad for the people of Scotland, while 31% said they did not know.

Among those who voted Labour in 2024, more believe that Keir Starmer's government has been bad for the people of Scotland than good (42% vs 35%).

The poll also recorded net favourability ratings for party leaders, with First Minister John Swinney scoring -12. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar was on -18, and Scots Tory leader Russell Findlay on -11, while Nigel Farage was on -14.

The Prime Minister, meanwhile, was on -38, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves on -39.

More in Common surveyed 1104 Scots voters between August 21 and September 1.