Favorite
Duke. The Blue Devils’ offensive depth is the reason why they’ve earned a No1 seed for the 13th time. Duke are a balanced scoring machine built around dominant freshman center/superstar-in-waiting Jahlil Okafor and a supporting cast of senior guard Quin Cook, and first-year guards Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones. Altogether, they rank fourth in Division I in scoring and third in field goal percentage. Duke’s head coach Mike Krzyzewski guided his team to 12 straight wins after the mid-season dismissal of Rasheed Sulaimon, demonstrating the kind of character that’s required to go deep in a one-and-done tourney. If they get beat early on it will be because their questionable perimeter defense let them down.
Dark horse
Iowa State. If you watched the Cyclones in the Big 12 tournament you know they’re dangerous. They scored the final 12 points to edge Texas by a basket in the quarterfinals, rallied from 11 down against Oklahoma in the semis, then charged back from 17 down against No9-ranked Kansas. Leading scorer Georges Niang broke his foot early in the last NCAA tournament; now that he’s healthy, the 6ft8in forward has emerged as a frontline NBA prospect who’s the key to a team with a legitimate shot at the Elite Eight.
Three first-round games to watch
No8 San Diego State vs No9 St John’s. The bad news came first for the Red Storm: center Chris Obekpa was suspended for two weeks for a violation of team rules before the they learned they would face the Aztecs in Charlotte. Should the Johnnies manage to overcome his loss and skate by a perennially underrated San Diego State team riding their sixth straight tourney appearance, they’d earn a likely rematch with Duke, who they nearly upset earlier this season.
No2 Gonzaga vs No15 North Dakota State. Is this the best Gonzaga team head coach Mark Few has had? Quite possibly. The tiny Catholic school in Spokane is blessed with the likes of center Przemek Karnowski, former Kentucky forward Kyle Wiltjer, and forward Domantas Sabonis, who bring size and tremendous shooting ability to the fold. Still, they’ve reached the Sweet 16 just once since 2007, while Few has never been to the Elite Eight. Their bid to break bad habits begins against a North Dakota State team led by senior guard Lawrence Alexander, who sizzles from three-point range.
No6 SMU vs No11 UCLA. There seems to be a certain level of disgust with UCLA’s admission in to the NCAA tournament, something that could be down to their 2-8 record vs the rest of the field of 68. Now that they’ve slipped in, 74-year-old SMU coach Larry Brown will face his former team – granted Brown has a lot of old teams – one he coached to the Final Four back in 1979. The Hall of Fame tactician has guided the SMU program from NCAA oblivion to their first Tourney trip since 1993.
Blue-plate upset special
No12 Stephen F Austin over No5 Utah. With 66% of the No12 teams ousting No5 seeds in first-round games over the past three years, it’s no surprise that the game has been garnering much attention in the lead up to the tourney. Even President Obama pointed out that he likes to jot down at least one win from a 12 seed each season. You wonder how he likes Stephen F Austin. Surely it’s impossible to root against a team called the Lumberjacks, who shoot exceptionally well while defending furiously. They will force Utah to speed up their game and that spells doom for their opponents, even if they’re called the Runnin’ Utes.
Key figure
41. The number of times No12 teams have defeated No5 teams since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985.
Five best players in regional
Jahlil Okafor, Duke. How many freshman have won the ACC player of the year award since the conference began 63 years ago? Only Okafor, who will also in all likelihood be the No1 overall pick in the upcoming NBA draft. He can take over a game offensively but struggles at time on the defensive end and at the free-throw line, where he shoots a ghastly 51%. If you can bear Duke reaching the Final Four, you’d love to see what he could do against Kentucky in the national championship game
Tyler Harvey, Eastern Washington. The 21-year-old sophomore had no scholarship offers before walking on at Eastern Washington last season. Now he’s the highest scoring player in Division I at nearly 23 points per game. Three games ago he lit up Idaho for 42 points, and earlier in the season he hung 25 on Indiana in an upset victory. Now No4 seed Georgetown – tournament underachievers of late – will seek to survive as they face the Eagles and their fill-it-up guard.
Kyle Wiltjer, Gonzaga. If the junior forward gets his way, he’ll be facing his former team, Kentucky, in the Final Four. The 6ft10in forward has enjoyed a break out season after sitting out 2013-14 following his departure from John Calipari’s title-winning team. Once seen as “too weak, too slow, too inflexible”, Wiltjer has transformed his defensive game while helping the Zags to a 32-2 record.
Monté Morris, Iowa State. The Cyclones point guard hit a buzzer-beater to down Texas in last week’s Big 12 tournament, but that’s not the most impressive thing Morris has done on the court this season. In 1,114 minutes of running the Iowa State offense, he’s turned the ball over just 35 times. Last year as a freshman, he set a record for assist-to-turnover ratio. Needless to say, Morris is in complete control, and that will be a joy to watch should his Cyclones go on a run this March.
Tyler Kalinoski, Davidson. The Atlantic 10 player of the year is dangerous from downtown, but will also slash and burn to the rim. A complete player, the Davidson guard averaged close to 17 points, over four assists and nearly six rebounds per game. It’s Kalinoski’s third and final NCAA tournament: he’ll graduate in June with a degree in economics.
Bold prediction
The world will get to know Tyler Harvey. They will also become familiar with his tiny school in Cheney, Washington. That’s all because Harvey will completely and totally torch Georgetown, who will wish they stayed home to prepare for cherry blossom season. Harvey will then take his team all the way to the Sweet 16 before Duke slaps them around with their Cinderella slipper. Annoyed fans will be delighted when Gonzaga beats Duke on a buzzer-beating shot from way, way downtown, ensuring that Okafor leaves for much greener pastures without a NCAA championship.
To advance to Sweet 16
Duke, Iowa State, Eastern Washington, Gonzaga
To advance to Final Four
Gonzaga
