Britain will have enough energy to keep the country running in a cold winter, despite a spate of fires at power plants and shutdowns weakening electricity capacity, National Grid said.
In its winter outlook, the operator of pipes and pylons said that electricity margins – the difference between peak demand and available supply – had fallen to 4.1% from 5% at peak periods last year because of planned generator closures, breakdowns and delays to new plants.
Gas supplies remain strong after last year’s mild winter, with gas capacity higher than the maximum expected demand, National Grid said.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine could disrupt supplies, even though the UK does not receive gas from Russia. But Britain could import liquefied natural gas to maintain supplies even if there was a cold winter and all exports from Russia were disrupted, National Grid said.
Cordi O’Hara, National Grid’s director of market operations, said: “It’s clear the country has the ability to meet its energy needs in a cold winter. But we cannot be complacent and will be monitoring the situation right through to spring next year.
“The electricity margin has decreased compared to recent years, but the outlook remains manageable and well within the reliability standard set by government.”
Concerns about winter energy supplies increased last week when a fire broke out at Didcot B, a power station near Oxford that serves about 1m households. The fire cut Didcot B’s output by half and there is no date in sight for restoring capacity.
The fire at the 1.4 gigawatt (GW) plant was the third at a fossil fuel-fired power station this year. After a blaze in February, E.ON decided not to bring back online one 370 MW unit at its Ironbridge power station in Shropshire. In July, SSE shut two units at its 1GW Ferrybridge coal plant in West Yorkshire were shut following a fire.
EDF Energy also took two of its nuclear plants out of service in August for inspections after a fault was found.
In response, National Grid said it was close to signing contracts for three power stations to provide extra reserves. The plants are at Littlebrook in Kent, Rye House in Hertfordshire, and Peterhead in Aberdeenshire.
National Grid, which operates Britain’s electricity and gas systems, said the additional capacity combined with measures agreed with businesses to cut demand at peak times would add 1.1 GW and take the electricity margin to a more comfortable 6.1%.
Ahead of the report, Ed Davey, the energy secretary, sought to reassure households that the lights wouldn’t go out after industry analysts warned capacity reductions had left the UK vulnerable to negative surprises.
The government is offering incentives to draw in investors to replace polluting coal plants and ageing nuclear power stations while it tries to meet higher carbon-reduction targets. It has faced criticism for not replacing infrastructure fast enough as power station operators have closed uneconomic sites.
O’Hara said: “We have taken the sensible precaution to secure additional tools to bolster our response to tighter margins. We will continue to keep a close watching brief across both electricity and gas throughout the winter so that we’re strongly placed to respond to any unanticipated events.”
