January Nymex natural gas (NGF26) on Friday closed up by +0.292 (+6.41%).
Jan nat-gas prices rallied sharply on Friday, surging to an 8.5-month nearest-futures high on expectations of colder US weather, potentially boosting heating demand for nat-gas. The Commodity Weather Group on Friday said weather models shifted cooler in the US, with intense cold seen in the Northeast and Great Lakes region for December 3-7. Also, forecasts indicate below-normal temperatures in the coming weeks for the Northeast and the Great Lakes.
Higher US nat-gas production is a bearish factor for prices. On November 12, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production by +1.0% to 107.67 bcf/day from September's estimate of 106.60 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was a record 113.4 bcf/day (+8.3% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 98.6 bcf/day (+9.2% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 18.5 bcf/day (+4.4% w/w), according to BNEF.
As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended November 15 rose +5.33% y/y to 75,586 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending November 15 rose +2.9% y/y to 4,286,124 GWh.
Wednesday's weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended November 21 fell by -11 bcf, a larger draw than the market consensus of -9 bcf but less than the 5-year weekly average of a -25 bcf draw. As of November 21, nat-gas inventories were down -0.8% y/y and were +4.2% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of November 26, gas storage in Europe was 77% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 88% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported Wednesday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending November 28 rose by +3 to 130 rigs, a 2.25-year high. In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
