August Nymex natural gas (NGQ25) on Monday closed down -0.122 (-3.92%).
Aug nat-gas prices tumbled to a 3-month low on Monday and settled sharply lower after US weather forecasts cooled, which will reduce nat-gas demand from electricity providers for air conditioning usage. Forecaster Vaisala on Monday said that forecasts shifted cooler for the eastern half of the US for August 2-6.
Stronger US nat-gas production is also weighing on prices, with US nat-gas output up year-over-year. In addition, expectations for even higher US nat-gas production are also weighing on nat-gas prices after last Friday's weekly report from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending July 25 rose by +5 to a nearly 2-year high of 122 rigs.
Lower-48 state dry gas production on Monday was 108.6 bcf/day (+4.1% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Monday was 82.8 bcf/day (+11.5% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Monday were 15.0 bcf/day (+1.9% w/w), according to BNEF.
An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended July 19 rose +2.1% y/y to 99,373 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending July 19 rose +2.4% y/y to 4,251,059 GWh.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended July 18 rose +23 bcf, below the consensus of +27 bcf and the 5-year average of +30 bcf for the week. As of July 18, nat-gas inventories were down -4.8% y/y, but were +5.9% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of July 22, gas storage in Europe was 66% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 74% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending July 25 rose by +5 to a nearly 2-year high of 122 rigs. In the past ten months, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
