Meteorologists are working on ever longer-range predictions, but they have not neglected ultra local, ultra short-term forecasts for specific purposes.
This month, meteorologists at Nasa’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia announced trials with a high-resolution weather model called US1k developed by Meteomatics. The developers claim that this model has a resolution nine times finer that other solutions, allowing planners to get a clear zoomed-in view of the launch conditions. It predicts weather on a 1km grid in 15-minute increments. The MetX interface is designed to convey crucial information clearly in stressful situations.
Bad weather can be disastrous for rocket launches. The Chinese Long March 2E satellite launch broke up when it ran into high altitude winds in 1992. Apollo 12 was struck by lightning shortly after liftoff in 1969, severely damaging some instruments. Fortunately, the mission continued successfully.
For Nasa, improved short-term forecasts may be a lifesaver. They may be equally important, though perhaps less serious, in other situations. Organisers of events such as Wimbledon are heavy users of ultra-local forecasts, even tracking individual clouds to determine if heavy showers are imminent.
A future public service for local forecasts might be popular. The national outlook for next month may be less interesting than whether you will be rained on going to the shops in the next half an hour.
