Closing post
Time to wrap up…
Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden has warned that that Britain’s jobs market had weakened and wage growth was normalising, which will help bring inflation back to target.
The gold price continues to inflate, though, hitting a record high of $3,831 per ounce today.
UK carmaker Jaguar Land Rover is close to restarting some manufacturing, after a cyber-attack disrupted production for a month. The move came after the UK government agreed to underwrite a £1.5bn loan for the company, sparking fears of ‘moral hazard’.
Britain’s second-biggest drugmaker GSK has announced the surprise departure of its chief executive, Emma Walmsley, after eight years in the top job.
Rival pharmaceuticals group AstraZeneca has said it will list its shares directly on the New York Stock Exchange in a decision described as a “knock-back for London”.
New pay offer for London Underground workers
A new pay offer has been made to London Underground workers following strikes earlier this month.
The Rail, Maritime and Transport union (RMT) say the new offer was a three-year deal comprising of a 3.4% pay increase in year one and a rise in line with RPI inflation in years two and three.
RMT members took industrial action which brought Tube services to a halt for days this month, causing travel disruption in the capital; talks resumed between Transport for London and the union after the strike ended.
RMT general secretary Eddie Dempsey says:
“This offer will now be discussed by the national executive committee and in consultation with the membership.
“As a result, the union remains in dispute with London Underground subject to the will of the membership under our democratic structures.”
The RPI inflation rate is typically used as a benchmark for pay negotiations, and was recorded at 4.6% in the year to August.
Over in New York, stocks have opened a little higher despite the threat of a US government shutdown later this week.
The S&P 500 index has gained 26 points, or 0.4%, to reach 6,669 points in early trading.
The Dow Jones industrial average is flat, though, with oil producer Chevron leading the fallers (-2%), tracking a drop in the oil price today.
Carnival raises annual profit forecast on cruise demand
Cruise operator Carnival has raised its annual profit forecast, citing strong demand for trips, higher prices and robust spending by passengers on board.
Carnival has raised its full year 2025 adjusted net income guidance for the third quarter in a row due to “improved net yields”, reporting that booking for 2026 is looking strong, with historically high prices.
Carnival’s CEO Josh Weinstein reports:
“Since May, booking trends have continued to strengthen with higher booking volumes than last year and far outpacing capacity growth.
This momentum affirms the success of our brands’ demand generation efforts and the amazing experiences we continue to deliver, driving excess demand and ongoing pricing strength. With nearly half of 2026 booked, which is in line with 2025 record levels (at the same time last year) but now at historical high prices (in constant currency) for both our North America and Europe segments, we have built a strong base of business for next year.
Looking further ahead, 2027 is already off to a great start, achieving record booking volumes during the third quarter.”
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While Emma Walmsley’s departure from GSK will cut the number of female FTSE 100 CEOs, the City of London is also getting its first Lady Mayor.
Alderwoman Dame Susan Langley DBE has today been elected as the 697th Lord Mayor of London, succeeding Alderman Alastair King.
She will be the third woman in the City of London Corporation’s history to hold the office – and the first to use the title “Lady Mayor”.
Dame Susan is promising a ‘Modern Mayoralty’, with a focus on:
Global Leadership: Maintaining London’s position as the world’s leading financial and professional services hub.
Reputation: Strengthening the standing of the Square Mile, the City Corporation, and the UK on the world stage.
Business Growth: Championing conditions that enable companies to thrive.
Social Impact: Ensuring the City makes a positive contribution to wider society and offers opportunities to all.
Bank of England's Ramsden sees inflation falling to target as jobs market weakens
Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden has warned that that Britain’s jobs market had weakened and wage growth was normalising.
While those two factors are both bad news for workers, they’re encouraging for central bankers – it means Ramsden is confident that inflation would fall back to the BoE’s target.
Speaking on a panel discussion organised by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Ramsden says (via Reuters):
“We have seen the labour market continuing to loosen with wage growth normalising and I see that as supporting a continuation of the core disinflation process. And that anchors my view on the inflation outlook.”
Ramsden was one of the seven Bank policymakers who voted to leave interest rates on hold earlier this month, when there were two votes to cut rates.
He has been seen as one of the more dovish members of the committee.
Inflation was last clocked at 3.8%, almost double the Bank’s target.
Recruitment data provider Adzuna has reported today that the UK jobs market is “cooling, not collapsing”, with graduates fresh from university likely to be hit by a slowdown in hiring.
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Electronic Arts to be taken private in $55bn deal with PIF, Silver Lake
Big news in the gaming industry: Videogame publisher Electronic Arts has agreed to be taken private by a consortium consisting of private equity firm Silver Lake, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Affinity Partners in a $55bn deal.
Under the deal, EA shareholders will receive $210 per share in cash, representing a premium of 25% as of the company’s closing share price on September 25 before reports of a deal emerged.
EA are the publisher of several massive, popular computer game franchises, from the FIFA (now FC) football games to The Sims, American football game Madden NFL, and first-person shooters Medal of Honor and Battlefield.
Goldman Sachs: Five reasons to worry about UK's fiscal position
Goldman Sachs have taken a critical look at the UK public finances ahead of the autumn budget.
They warn, in a new research note, that the UK fiscal position looks challenging relative to other advanced economies, for five reasons:
First, public debt now stands towards the upper end of the range among advanced economies.
Goldman Sachs explains:
The UK saw one of the largest spikes in the debt-to-GDP ratio after Covid, reflecting generous policy intervention and a sharp drop in economic activity. As a result, gross public debt (as measured by the IMF) is now at 101% of GDP, which is historically high outside of major wars and meaningfully exceeded only by Italy (135%) and France (115%) in Europe, Japan (237%) and the US (121%).
Secondly, the public deficit is high:
In 2024, the UK had the third-highest deficit at 5.7% of GDP among European countries, and the fifth-highest among 36 advanced economies, surpassed only by the US, France, Slovakia and Israel. The deficit is also elevated on a “structural” basis—excluding interest payments and the effects of the cycle—which the government has struggled to reduce meaningfully since Covid.
The UK’s accounting of the BoE’s QT losses, moreover, will put additional upward pressure on public debt in coming years.
Third, borrowing costs are high relative to growth.
While UK growth has been broadly similar to other advanced economies, inflation has remained notably higher than elsewhere. As a result, the Bank of England has lowered the policy rate more slowly and Bank Rate remains in restrictive territory. This adverse macro mix implies that the UK faces one of the highest interest rate/growth differentials across advanced economies—often referred to as “r-g”—which plays a key role in the assessment of debt sustainability.
Fourth, the UK has one of the highest current account deficits across advanced economies.
Goldman says:
While not directly relevant for the dynamics of public debt, research shows that large “twin” deficits have historically been associated with fiscal crises, with markets requiring a larger term premium in countries that run large current account deficits.
Fifth, the structure of UK debt has become more unfavourable:
The UK retains a large share of inflation-linked debt, with the proportion of linkers rising from 10% in the late 1980s to 25% now (twice as high as the next advanced economy, Italy, with 12%). As a result, UK debt dynamics have been more exposed to high inflation than in other economies in recent years.
BUT it’s not all bad. Goldman point to a number of factors that mitigate the UK’s fiscal vulnerability compared with other advanced countries. They include the UK’s “strong fiscal institutions”, the government’s fiscal rule, and its “long and encouraging track record of fiscal consolidation”….
Gold hits $3,800 per ounce as rally continues
The gold price has surged over the $3,800 per ounce mark for the first time today.
The spot price of gold is up 1.5% at $3,819 per ounce, meaning the precious metal’s value has jumped 45% so far this year, on track for its strongest annual gains since 1979.
Today’s rally is being credited to expectations of a U.S. rate cut and concerns about a potential government shutdown.
I’ve looked at some of the other factors here:
Paul Williams, managing director of Solomon Global, now envisions $4,000/oz being hit by the end of this year, saying:
“Gold has increased almost $400 since August 22nd, supported by numerous factors including a softening US dollar, inflation concerns, anticipated additional rate cuts from the Fed, declining confidence in risk assets, ongoing geopolitical flashpoints and continued accumulation by central banks.
These dynamics and this momentum look set to remain, putting gold on a trajectory that makes $4000 by Christmas a strong possibility.”
A new healthcheck on UK borrowing shows that people are taking out more credit, as demand for new home loans fades a little.
The Bank of England has reported that UK consumer borrowing rose at the fastest pace since October 2024 in the 12 months to the end of August.
Net consumer borrowing rose by £1.692bn, up from £1.669bn in July.
Net mortgage approvals for house purchases decreased by 500 in August, to 64,700. Approvals for remortgaging decreased by 900 in August, to 37,900.
Today’s announcement that some JLR manufacturing will resume soon comes almost a week after the company extended the production pause until at least 1 October.
The cyber-attack has impacting its factories in Halewood, on Merseyside, and Solihull in the West Midlands, and its engine manufacturing site in Wolverhampton.
Experts have warned the production shutdown could hit the group’s bottom line by at least £120m, with the firm thought to usually build about 1,000 cars a day.
JLR: some sections of our manufacturing operations will resume in coming days.
Newsflash: Jaguar Land Rover has announced that “some sections” of its carmaking operations will restart “in the coming days”.
In a new statement, two days after the government underwrote a £1.5bn loan guarantee for JLR, the UK’s largest carmaker insists that the “foundational work” of its recovery is firmly underway.
However, we don’t know exactly which parts of JLR’s factory output will restart first.
JLR says:
As the controlled, phased restart of our operations continues, we are taking further steps towards our recovery and the return to manufacture of our world‑class vehicles.
Today we are informing colleagues, retailers and suppliers that some sections of our manufacturing operations will resume in the coming days.We continue to work around the clock alongside cybersecurity specialists, the UK Government’s NCSC and law enforcement to ensure our restart is done in a safe and secure manner.
We would like to thank everyone connected with JLR for their continued patience, understanding and support. We know there is much more to do but the foundational work of our recovery is firmly underway, and we will continue to provide updates as we progress.
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Reeves cool on standalone wealth tax
It’s a busy day for chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is due to address the Labour party conference in Liverpool today.
Reeves has held a series of interviews – and has told Bloomberg that she doesn’t support calls for a wealth tax to be included in her autumn budget.
Reeves argues:
“We already have taxes on wealthy people; I don’t think we need a standalone wealth tax.
“I’m not even sure it would work.”
[Reeves’s esteemed predecessor, Denis Healey, came to a similar conclusion in the 1970s, judging it was impossible to draft a wealth tax “which would yield enough revenue to be worth the administrative cost and political hassle”)
Reeves has also tried to play down reports that she would need to put up taxes by about £30bn in the budget, while insisting that much of the speculation about possible tax rises in budget is ‘rubbish’.
Our Politics Live blog has more details:
Updated
Eurozone economic sentiment improves in September
Over in the eurozone, economic sentiment has improved despite weakening confidence in the jobs market.
The European Commission’s eurozone economic sentiment indicator has inched up to 95.5 points this month, up from 95.3 in August. That suggests a little more confidence about the economic outlook, after a summer in which the EU struck a trade deal with the US.
However, the eurozone Employment Expectations Indicator dipped by 1.3 points this month, to 96.4, further below the long-term average of 100.
FTSE 100 heading towards record high
GSK (+3%) and AstraZeneca (+0.8%) are helping to push the London stock market towards a new peak.
The FTSE 100 index has gained 48 points, or 0.5%, this morning to 9333 points – not far from the alltime high of 9,357 set in late August.
The stock market is also benefitting from encouraging US economic data last Friday, which showed US personal spending growing while price pressures were unchanged.
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“It can never be great for a CEO’s ego when a share price goes up on news of their departure, but that’s what has happened to GSK chief executive Emma Walmsley this morning,” points out AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
Mould points out that GSK has lagged behind AstraZeneca for shareholder returns on Walmsley’s watch:
“Walmsley has been patiently leading a turnaround of the pharmaceutical giant almost ever since she took over in 2017 and she can point to real evidence of progress, including the spin-off of consumer health arm Haleon.
“However, litigation issues over Zantac and setbacks for its vaccine business – notably GSK was considered to have much more vaccine expertise than rival AstraZeneca before the pandemic – have held the business back.
“Using the ultimate arbiter, GSK has achieved a total return of around 30% since Walmsley took charge compared with more than 180% for AstraZeneca. In this context there may be some eyebrows raised at an internal appointment being selected to take over in the form of current chief commercial officer Luke Miels, particularly given his tenure largely matches his current boss.
“While it may not be reflected in the share price, Miels could be grateful in the longer term for the progress Walmsley has made in the background.”
Interactive investor: Walmsley's leadership a success, share price less so
Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, says the news that Dame Emma Walmsley is stepping down as CEO of GSK has taken investors by surprise.
The 3.5% jump in GSK’s share price this morning suggests the City is ‘excited’ by the appointment of chief commercial officer Luke Miels as her replacement, Scholar adds:
Walmsley has been at the helm since 1st April 2017 and her leadership has largely been judged as a success story. She navigated GSK through the challenges of the pandemic and successfully delivered its consumer health division’s spin-off into a standalone company, Haleon. Walmsley has also been in charge during a stretch when GSK has achieved a number of drug breakthroughs such as Arexvy (an RSV vaccine) and she has endeavoured to make AI and cutting edge technology central to GSK’s strategy. She also became the first woman to become CEO of a pharma giant.
However Walmsley has also faced a number of challenges not least with US litigation over its heartburn drug Zantac and an mRNA patent dispute with Pfizer and BioNTech. She also faced activist investor opposition from US hedge fund Elliott Management in 2021.
While there’s a vast amount to cheer when it comes to Walmsley’s leadership, shares haven’t performed so well, down around 10% since she took up the top job. And the stock is reacting positively today, suggesting investors are excited by the change in leadership.
Saxo: GSK looks 'well positioned'
Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, reckons Emma Walmsley is handing GSK on in pretty good shape.
He says:
Emma Walmsley will step down as CEO at GSK after nine years in charge.
Shares rose on the news by over 3% - Walmsley copped flak for years, but the stock has traded sideways for two decades and things have been improving. The business looks well positioned after some notable progress in the year or so, particularly the spin-off of Haleon and strong cancer drug sales. Tariff uncertainty should start clearing, too
Updated
Analyst: End of an era as Dame Emma Walmsley calls time as CEO
Emma Walmsley’s departure as CEO of GSK at the end of the year will be the “end of an era”, says Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Nathan explains:
“The first ever female CEO of a major pharmaceutical company, Dame Emma Walmsley, is set to hand over GSK’s reins on New Year’s Day 2026. One of her key achievements was the demerger of Haleon, the company behind consumer health brands such as Beechams. That not just strengthened GSK’s balance sheet but also sharpened the group’s focus on speciality medicines and vaccines. There’s an exciting pipeline ahead and, this year alone, GSK’s on track for five major regulatory approvals. Her reign also saw a line drawn in the sand in the Zantac litigation case, removing a key financial uncertainty.
But, Nathan adds, GSK’s share price performance has been lacklustre on Walmsley’s watch:
He points out that its stock trades at a significant discount to the peer group, adding:
Although her record of delivering on financial guidance has been strong, the company’s growth rates remain stuck in single digit territory. There’s a $40bn sales target in place for 2031, but analyst forecasts suggest some doubts still linger. It will be down to the leadership of CEO designate Luke Miels to convince the market.
He’s been handed a business in good shape and, if he can deliver on this goal, shareholders stand to be well rewarded. The market’s backing him for now, with a 3.5% share price increase this morning, but there’s a long road ahead. As Emma Walmsley’s relationship with the City has shown, it can be a demanding audience.”
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Analyst: AstraZeneca’s US listing aims to fuel next decade of growth
AstraZeneca’s plan to list on the US stock market is an attempt to fuel its next decade of growth, says Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro:
“AstraZeneca is stepping onto Wall Street with a new US share listing, giving the company more visibility in the world’s largest healthcare market while keeping its London home. The move is aimed to attract a wider base of investors as Astra pursues strong growth over the next decade. By broadening its investor reach in the US, Astra is looking to secure the capital and visibility needed to fund its next wave of medicines and hit its long-term sales targets.
Importantly, this dual listing isn’t about shifting away from London but securing a truly global platform. Backed by a blockbuster cancer portfolio and a pipeline of promising new treatments, we think AstraZeneca is well positioned for steady earnings growth. With sights set on reaching $80bn in sales by 2030, the US listing strengthens its ability to deliver for both patients and shareholders.”
Updated
AstraZeneca’s shares are up too – gaining 1% in London, as investors react to its decision to create a direct listing on the New York stock exchange.
That listing change should make it easier for US capital to move into AstraZeneca.
Updated
GSK shares rise after CEO shake-up
The City is giving a thumbs-up to the change of CEO at GSK.
GSK’s shares are the top riser on the FTSE 100 blue-chip share index at the start of trading, up 3.5%.
Updated
AstraZeneca shakes up stock market listing structure
GSK’s pharmaceuticals rival, AstraZeneca, also has news this morning.
AstraZeneca has shaken up its stock market listing structure, and will now have a direct listing on the New York stock market, as well as in London and Stockholm.
Those shares will replace its existing American Depositary Receipts (ADR) which track AstraZeneca’s share price.
However, AstraZeneca will keep its status as a UK listed, headquartered and tax resident company – it’s not joining the ranks of companies quitting London for Wall Street.
Michel Demaré, chair of AstraZeneca, says the move will create a ‘global listing structure’:
“Today we set out our proposed harmonised listing structure which will support our long-term strategy for sustainable growth, while remaining headquartered in the UK and listed in London, Stockholm and New York.
Enabling a global listing structure will allow us to reach a broader mix of global investors and will make it even more attractive for all our shareholders to have the opportunity to participate in AstraZeneca’s exciting future.”
Walmsley’s departure comes three years after GSK fought off pressure from activist investor Elliott Management for a change of leadership.
Back in 2021, Elliott demanded new board directors with deep pharmaceutical and consumer health expertise, and a process to select “the best executive leadership” for both GSK and the consumer healthcare division it span off (to become FTSE 100 -listed Haleon).
Dame Emma Walmsley will step down from the GSK board on 31 December, when Luke Miels takes her CEO seat.
But she will remain with the company until her notice period ends on 30 September 2026, which means another year of salary, pension and benefits, plus the possibility of a bonus for the 2025 financial year.
And, importantly for the Walmsley finances, she’ll be treated as “a good leaver”, meaning she’ll still receive awards under GSK’s performance share plan.
Updated
Walmsley: It's the right moment for new leadership
Dame Emma Walmsley says she is off to begin “new adventure”, once she steps down as GSK’s CEO at the end of the year.
“2026 is a pivotal year for GSK to define its path for the decade ahead, and I believe the right moment for new leadership. As CEO, you hope to leave the company you love stronger than you found it and prepare for seamless succession.
I’m proud to have done both - and to have created Haleon, a new world-leader in consumer health. Today, GSK is a biopharma innovator, with far stronger momentum and prospects than nine years ago. Most importantly, the inspiring people in our labs, factories, and markets worldwide are delivering innovation that matters to get ahead of disease.
I know Luke will lead them brilliantly to even greater impact for patients. I look forward to supporting this transition and to cheering GSK’s future success as I begin my own new adventures.”
GSK announces surprise change of CEO
UK pharmaceuticals company GSK has surprised the City by announcing a change of chief executive.
Emma Walmsley will step down as CEO after nine years at the helm, and will be replaced by company insider Luke Miels.
Miels is currently GSK’s chief commercial officer, but has now been crowned as “CEO Designate”. He will become CEO on 1st January 2026.
GSK tells investors:
Luke is a highly respected, experienced global biopharma leader, having worked at senior levels in the US, Europe and Asia, at AstraZeneca, Roche and Sanofi-Aventis, prior to joining GSK.
This experience, and significant contribution to GSK, mean he is exceptionally well-qualified to lead the company, and to deliver the patient and shareholder value inherent in the company’s future ambitions.
Even so, this change at the top is a surprise. GSK says Miels’s appointment “reflects effective long-term succession planning by the Board and Emma”, and that it considered a range of candidates, internal and external.
During her nine years in charge, Walmsley has been conducting a wide-ranging overhaul of GSK, including spinning off its consumer health business into a new company, Haleon.
‘Moral hazard’ fears over JLR’s £1.5bn government loan guarante
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.
There’s relief in the West Midlands this morning, after the government agreed to underwrite a £1.5bn loan guarantee to Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) to help the carmaker, and its suppliers, ride out a disruptive cyber-attack.
The loan guarantee was announced on Saturday night, after ministers also assessed other options such as becoming a ‘buyer of last resort’ for JLR’s suppliers, or a furlough scheme for auto workers.
The business secretary, Peter Kyle, said it will save jobs dependent on JLR’s factories in Britain:
“This cyber-attack was not only an assault on an iconic British brand, but on our world-leading automotive sector and the men and women whose livelihoods depend on it.
“Following our decisive action, this loan guarantee will help support the supply chain and protect skilled jobs in the West Midlands, Merseyside and throughout the UK.”
But there are also concerns that the loan creates a ‘moral hazard’ problem – potentially taking pressure off UK companies to protect themselves from the threat of hackers through insurance or robust security.
Liam Byrne, the Labour chair of the House of Commons business and trade select committee, has warned about the arrangement’s risks.
Byrne cationed (via the Financial Times):
“Going forward, there is a real risk of moral hazard.”
“As a country we’re going to have to remake the way the state and market work together to try and safeguard British industry against these kinds of risks.”
However…. even with this loan guarantee, JLR still faces massive disruption. The hack has frozen car production for a month (so far…), creating turmoil across its supply chain – particularly in the West Midlands surrounding the company’s headquarters in Gaydon and the Solihull factory,
There were reports earlier this month that JLR had “failed to finalise” a cyber insurance deal before being struck by a cyber attack earlier this month, which rather sharpens the moral hazard question…..
…. especially as the company is profitable, and owned by India’s Tata Motors.
The agenda
9.30am BST: Bank of England mortgage approvals and credit data
1pm BST: Dave Ramsden: panellist at the ECB ‘Inflation: drivers and dynamics 2025 conference’ in Frankfurt.
3pm BST: Dallas Fed manufacturing index
3pm BST: US pending home sales
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