The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a delay in the arrival of the monsoon over Kerala while Skymet, a private forecaster, expects it to arrive earlier. The difference in the arrival dates by both agencies is as much as a week.
The normal date of onset for the State is June 1. In a statement on Friday, the IMD set a date of June 5 whereas Skymet, on its website, has forecast May 28.
The time of the monsoon’s arrival in Kerala does not influence its overall progress, distribution or quantum of rain over the ensuing monsoon months of June-September.
The discrepancy appears largely on the agencies’ interpretation of the influence of a developing cyclone in the Bay of Bengal as well as the prevailing summer temperatures in north India.
This storm, which is a normal feature during May, is likely to burgeon into a cyclone by the weekend, and aid the advent of the monsoon into the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Hereon, the monsoon typically takes 10-11 days to reach the Kerala coast. G.P. Sharma, vice president, meteorology, Skymet, said the cyclone will not hamper this routine progress and that the early onset of monsoon in the A&N Islands will therefore bring the monsoon early over Kerala.
