Moldovans are due to vote on Sunday in a pivotal parliamentary election that will determine whether the country of 2.4 million people continues on its path towards joining the EU or drifts back into Moscow’s orbit, with widespread reports of Russian meddling.
The pro-western president, Maia Sandu, and her ruling Action and Solidarity party (PAS), which holds a parliamentary majority, face a stiff challenge from the Patriotic Electoral Bloc, an alliance of pro-Russian, Soviet-nostalgic parties led in part by the former president Igor Dodon, whom Sandu defeated in 2020.
“The results of these elections will define the country’s future not just for the next four years, but for many, many years ahead,” said Igor Grosu, the head of PAS, who is likely to be appointed prime minister if his party gains a majority in the elections.
Grosu is a close ally of Sandu and the current prime minister, Dorin Recean.
But the race in the impoverished country located between Ukraine and Romania is expected to be tight.
Polls suggest PAS will remain the largest party, but could lose its majority, with the Patriotic bloc polling a close second. In such a scenario, smaller parties could play a decisive role.
The Alternative bloc – led by Ion Ceban, the mayor of the capital Chișinău, and last year’s presidential runner-up, Alexandru Stoianoglo – has sought to attract disillusioned centrist voters. While nominally pro-European, critics contend Alternative is a Kremlin-friendly spoiler designed to peel away support from PAS while preserving Moscow’s influence.
In Moldova, power is shared between the directly elected president and a prime minister appointed by parliament. The president steers foreign policy and security, while the prime minister and cabinet manage day-to-day governance.
If PAS loses badly, Sandu may be forced to share power with Dodon, who could become prime minister. Dodon has spent time under house arrest on corruption charges. The pro-Russian alliance he leads has a logo featuring a red and white star encircling a heart with a Soviet hammer and sickle at its centre.
Sandu, a former World Bank official elected in 2020 on a wave of anti-corruption sentiment, has staked her presidency on a pro-European course. Her government oversaw a referendum last October in which Moldovans narrowly voted to enshrine EU membership as a constitutional goal. On the same day, Sandu was re-elected for a four-year term.
“It’s a litmus test for Sandu,” said a European diplomat in Chișinău. “No one seems to know what sort of country Moldova will be by Monday.”
Since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Moldova has oscillated between pro-European and pro-Russian paths.
Under Sandu, the country has accelerated its drive to break free from Moscow’s influence, a push sharpened by Russia’s war in neighbouring Ukraine. But the shadow of the Kremlin has always loomed large. Moscow has 1,500 troops stationed in Transnistria, a region run by pro-Russia separatists who broke away from the control of Moldova’s government in a brief war in the 1990s.
Since Sandu’s election, the Kremlin has been accused of working aggressively to undermine her.
Moldovan authorities say Moscow has funnelled billions of dollars into pro-Russian parties, vote-buying schemes and propaganda campaigns aimed at stoking anti-western sentiment.
Last week, authorities carried out 250 raids and detained dozens of suspects as part of an investigation into an alleged Russia-backed plot to incite “mass riots” around the election.
A Reuters investigation revealed on Wednesday how Moscow has recruited and paid dozens of priests in the deeply religious nation to urge congregations to vote against PAS.
Russia’s SVR foreign intelligence service released a statement this week claiming Nato forces were gathering in Romania and were prepared to occupy Moldova after the vote if the “crude falsifications of elections being prepared in Brussels and Chișinău” led to unrest.
The SVR, which has a history of making provocative and unsourced claims about western plans, did not provide any evidence for the statement, though it is evidence of how concerned Moscow is about events in Moldova.
A western intelligence official told the Guardian they believed Moldova had become “the key Russian foreign policy priority after Ukraine” in recent months. The official also said the team dealing with Moldova inside Russia’s presidential administration had been changed this year, with the goal of pursuing a more aggressive policy in the country.
The outcome of the election will be closely watched in Brussels and other European capitals, where officials fear Moscow could gain a foothold in a strategically vital region as it intensifies its hybrid war across the continent.
In September, leaders from France, Germany and Poland travelled to Chișinău to show support for Moldova’s EU aspirations and warn against Russian interference.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, echoed that message at the UN general assembly in New York this week. “Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova too,” he said, warning that Georgia and Belarus had already fallen under Moscow’s sway.
Sandu’s main vulnerability is the economy. Inflation has remained stubbornly high, emigration continues apace, and GDP growth has been modest, though supporters argue the challenges stem largely from external shocks.
In 2022, the country was plunged into an energy crisis after the Kremlin-controlled energy provider Gazprom slashed gas supplies by a third and doubled prices, in what was widely seen as political payback for Sandu’s pro-western course.
Then Russia’s war in Ukraine sent shock waves through Moldova’s fragile economy. Situated just a few hours’ drive from Odesa, Moldova has taken in more Ukrainian refugees per capita than any other country, straining its healthcare system, public services and infrastructure. Inflation spiked to 40% as trade with Moscow and Kyiv collapsed.
Additional reporting by Shaun Walker
