There aren’t many leagues around the world where rivalries can brew as quickly as they do in Major League Soccer, especially in the MLS Cup playoffs.
Since the league introduced the Round One best-of-three series in 2023, the series that have gone to a third and decisive game almost always bring drama the next season and spark discontent within the matchup.
That’s unlikely to be any different in 2025, with five of the eight first-round matches heading to Game 3, giving one team a chance to advance and the other plenty to think about—notably if they won Game 1.
Sports Illustrated predicts each of the possible outcomes from this weekend’s matches.
(4) Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC (5)
- Location: Bank of America Stadium—Charlotte, North Carolina
- Date: Friday, Nov. 7
- Kickoff: 7:00 pm ET/4:00 pm PT
- Winner Faces: Philadelphia Union (1)
With only one goal scored in the first two games, the series between Charlotte FC and New York City is exceptionally close, and could be bound for a single moment or even a penalty shootout as the deciding factor.
After Alonso Martínez scored a brilliant solo goal to lead NYCFC to victory in Charlotte to open the series, The Crown levelled the matchup in penalties in Game 2. While Charlotte missed leading man Wilfried Zaha in Game 1, the former Premier League star struggled to make a significant impact in the second game as well.
Charlotte FC head coach Dean Smith had a good thing going earlier in the season with playmaker Pep Biel and striker Patrick Agyemang. Yet, since both have left, and as good a striker as Idan Toklomati has been, they’ve lost a bit of that winning edge, making a one-game decider a challenging one.
NYCFC, meanwhile, have that edge with Matt Freese’s form between the sticks and the game-breaking abilities of Martínez and Nicolás Fernández Mercau.
Prediction: Charlotte FC 1–2 NYCFC
(3) Inter Miami vs. Nashville SC (6)
- Location: Chase Stadium—Fort Lauderdale, Florida
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 8
- Kickoff: 8:00 pm ET/5:00 pm PT
- Winner Faces: FC Cincinnati (2) or Columbus Crew (7)
Inter Miami have played a few big games this season, but Saturday night’s Game 3 clash against Nashville SC on their home pitch is a club and era-defining night. Anything but a win and the era of Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets has officially been a failure.
Suárez won’t be available due to suspension, while Alba and Busquets will have added motivation to win, given that a loss would unceremoniously send them into retirement. Meanwhile, Messi will hope to lead the team to victory once again and extend his teammates’ careers.
But, they have been second best. Nashville SC showed well despite the 3–1 loss in the opening game and improved in Game 2 with a 2–1 home win, neutralizing Miami’s threats for most of the game.
With Sam Surridge and Hany Mukhtar, Nashville have offensive weapons and they have found their knack as disruptors defensively through Edvard Tagseth and Andy Najar.
This one will be close, but Miami should have enough to avoid a second straight first-round exit.
Score Prediction: Inter Miami 3–2 Nashville SC
(2) FC Cincinnati vs. Columbus Crew (7)
- Location: TQL Stadium—Cincinnati, Ohio
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 8
- Kickoff: 6:00 pm ET/3:00 pm PT
- Winner Faces: Inter Miami (3) or Nashville SC (6)
The Hell is Real Derby brought an exceptional one-game knockout in the 2023 Eastern Conference Final. Could we be in for something similar with Game 3 this year?
For FC Cincinnati, it’s a must-not-lose scenario. Given the level of investment in the team with Kévin Denkey, Evander and Brenner, the club has built the makings of a team that should contend for MLS Cup. Yet, their history has always seen them fall short in the postseason.
The Crew, though, are built for playoffs. While they may not have a standout goalscorer after marquee summer signing Wessam Abou Ali, they have key depth pieces and other difference-makers like Max Arfsten, Diego Rossi, Darlington Nagbe and, to an extent, Jacen Russell-Rowe.
Grabbing a win at TQL Stadium won’t be easy, but after trouncing Cincinnati 4–0 in Game 2, we’re going with a Columbus win in Game 3.
Score Prediction: FC Cincinnati 2–2 Columbus Crew (Columbus advance in pens.)
(1) San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers (8)
- Location: Snapdragon Stadium—San Diego, California
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 9
- Kickoff: 9:00 pm ET/6:00 pm PT
- Winner Faces: Minnesota United (4) or Seattle Sounders FC (5)
San Diego FC have been the better team through the first two games of the series against the Portland Timbers, but fell unlucky in the penalty shootout after a 2–2 draw in Game 2, allowing the Cascadia side to level the series.
Heading back to Snapdragon Stadium, head coach Mikey Varas will still be confident in his group. With two goals in each game, they’ve proven their attacking abilities in the postseason and are the more consistent side between the two—the Timbers haven’t found anywhere near the same level of regularity, despite adding Kristoffer Velde in the summer.
As much as San Diego would be favored on the road given their record away from home this season, they remain the likely team to go through in front of their home support, especially if Anders Dreyer and Hirving “Chucky” Lozano can find their best form.
Score Prediction: San Diego FC 2–0 Portland Timbers
(4) Minnesota United vs. Seattle Sounders FC (5)
- Location: Allianz Stadium—Minneapolis, Minnesota
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 8
- Kickoff: 4:00 pm ET/1:00 pm PT
- Winner Faces: San Diego FC (1) or Portland Timbers (8)
Of all the Game 3s, this one has the most potential to be an offensive shootout. Neither team defends particularly well, and both love themselves a big game—especially the Seattle Sounders, a team known for their playoff success.
Sounders head coach Brian Schmetzer altered his tactics in Game 2, starting Danny Musovski as an outright striker, dropping Jordan Morris slightly deeper and also relying on Cristian Roldan’s ball-advancing abilities.
Much of that is likely to stay the same for a Sounders side that looks to arrive late in the box, and get their leading players in behind Minnesota’s defense; however, the Loons will be confident that they can absorb pressure and hit on the counterattack.
If Kelvin Yeboah were completely healthy for Minnesota, this might be a different story, but we’re going with Seattle advancing to the Western Conference semifinals, getting the better of MLS Goalkeeper of the Year, Dayne St. Clair.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as MLS Cup Playoffs Predictions: Every Decisive Game Three Clash in Round One.
