The American and National League's Rookie of the Year awards are—even by MLB award standards—difficult to handicap.
It's May 19—deep enough into the MLB season to see trends emerging—and it's not entirely certain that the potential winners are both in the majors. In 2013, Tampa Bay Rays right fielder Wil Myers won the AL award after debuting on June 18. In 2019, Houston Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez won after a June 9 debut.
Nevertheless, now seems like a good time to start taking stock of the rookie crop. We’ll be doing this roughly every two weeks throughout the season, assessing the bodies of work of rookies currently at the game's top level. To come up with the top three first-year players in each league so far, we asked how are players faring in traditional metrics? What about OPS and FIP? WAR? Win probability added?
The result are the rankings you see before you, which don't necessarily reflect the hype afforded certain rookies. Boston Red Sox second baseman Kristian Campbell has shown flashes—but –0.1 bWAR sticks out like a sore thumb (his 0.2 fWAR isn’t much better). So it goes for Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Roki Sasaki with an unsightly 4.72 ERA.
Let's dive in. All stats are updated entering Monday’s games.
American League
1. Jacob Wilson, shortstop, Athletics
What a start for the Athletics' 2023 first-round pick—suddenly the face of the team's much-maligned Sacramento sojourn. Last Tuesday, Wilson clubbed two home runs as his team romped 11–1 over the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's slashing an otherworldly .337/.369/.478 with five homers, marrying old-school and new-school sensibilities as he leads the AL in singles and ranks fifth in offensive WAR. If the Sacramento team stays over .500, he'll remain in the spotlight.
2. Carlos Narváez, catcher, Boston Red Sox
He was already one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. Now he's starting to hit—far more so than co-catcher Connor Wong, the owner of a .156 batting average. Per Chris Cotillo of MassLive, manager Alex Cora “continues to insist that catchers Carlos Narváez and Connor Wong are in a timeshare behind that plate." With Narváez slashing .382/.462/.529 in May, how much longer can that charade continue?
3. Jake Mangum, right fielder, Tampa Bay Rays
Mangum isn’t on most people’s radar for this award, and there’s good reason for that. He hasn't played since April 23 due to a groin strain, and in a quintessentially Raysian twist, he's 29 and has long been off prospect watchers' radars. However, his numbers are undeniably intriguing—0.8 bWAR in just 21 games, .338/.384/.397 slash line, eight steals, solid defense—and he’s set to begin a rehab assignment in the minors on Tuesday. Advanced metrics liked his start; let's see if healthier rookies pass him in the coming weeks.
Honorable Mention
Jasson Dominguez, LF, New York Yankees; Shane Smith, SP, Chicago White Sox; Grant Holman, RP, Athletics; Chandler Simpson, OF, Rays
National League
1. Drake Baldwin, catcher, Atlanta Braves
An avalanche of positive press surrounds Baldwin, who's raised his batting average more than 100 points in May while slashing .531/.531/.875 (not a typo). He's on a 28-home run, 84-RBI pace—numbers that invite All-Star buzz. His team has poked its head above .500 (especially impressive considering the Braves' poor start). Atlanta would gladly take a third Rookie of the Year award in eight seasons.
2. Liam Hicks, catcher, Miami Marlins
Who? Google "Liam Hicks" and click under news—seemingly the only outlet keeping tabs on him is KAIT-TV, the Arkansas State product's home outlet in Jonesboro, Ark.. We're here to change that—this is a player with good traditional numbers (a 24-home run, 120-RBI pace over 162 games), good slash line numbers (.282/.352/.487) and good advanced numbers (0.6 bWAR). That last figure, in fact, eclipses the 0.4 bWAR of ... fellow rookie Marlins catcher (and designated hitter) Agustín Ramírez, the subject of a bit more award buzz.
3. Ben Casparius, pitcher, Los Angles Dodgers
The husband of North Carolina field hockey legend-turned-coach Erin Matson joins a long line of players to see considerable postseason action—6 1/3 innings in all—before his rookie year. Casparius, currently holding a 4–0 record, has been a bullpen Swiss army knife for the Dodgers even as he carries a strange mix of advanced numbers. A 3.26 ERA is softened by a 1.97 FIP—marking him as unlucky—and a dip in strikeouts per nine innings is complemented by a substantial dip in walks per nine innings. If he continues his do-it-all ways, he'll make serious noise.
Honorable Mention
Agustín Ramírez, C/DH, Marlins; Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals; Yohel Pozo, C, St. Louis Cardinals; AJ Smith-Shawver, SP, Braves
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as MLB Rookie Watch: An Early Look at the Award Races.
