A lot can happen over the course of a long Major League Baseball season. A small-market team can emerge as a juggernaut. Big-market teams can be humbled. The deepest division in baseball a year ago can be turned directly on its head.
Just under a month and half remains in the 2025 regular season, and baseball's pecking order looks very different now from how it looked early on. Can the Brewers keep up their blazing second half? Can the Yankees and Mets rediscover their old mojo? What's going on in the American League Central? These issues and more will be explored in this edition of Fact or Fiction.
The Brewers will end the season with MLB's best record
Verdict: Fact
At 79–47, Milwaukee is perched atop both leagues and on pace for the best record in franchise history. The squad leads the Cubs by seven games in the National League Central and the Phillies by six games in the race for the No. 1 seed in the NL, and is five games better than the AL-best Tigers.
The question is whether those leads can hold up for the rest of the season. Milwaukee's remaining opponents have a winning percentage of .510 (11th strongest). Contrast that with .468 for Chicago (29th), .502 for Philadelphia (15th), .471 for the Dodgers (28th), and .493 for the Tigers (19th). Those numbers don’t post the prettiest picture, but the Brewers do play 22 of their 36 remaining games against teams under .500—more than the Cubs (21), Phillies (19) and Tigers (12), and just two fewer than the Dodgers. That’ll be present more opportunities to stack up wins against inferior competition. They also possess perhaps the best pitching depth in the league.
MORE:SI:AM | The Brewers’ Streak by the Numbers
Who can gain ground on the Brewers by beating them directly? The Cubs have two more chances to this week, but that’s the last time the two division rivals play. Back-to-back series against the Blue Jays and Phillies loom. A protracted dip seems unlikely, though, so Milwaukee can dream of a third straight division title—and a good shot at a first playoff series win since 2018.
The Yankees and Mets will both miss the playoffs
Verdict: Fiction
The Yankees were in danger of falling out of the playoff picture as recently as Friday, thanks to a lengthy slump and a month-long tear by the Guardians. The weekend, however, broke perfectly New York's way: the Yankees swept the Cardinals and watched Cleveland drop three in a row to the Braves. The Guardians scraped together a win over the Diamondbacks Monday, but lost again Tuesday. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are on a four-game losing streak.
What about the Mets? Ice cold of late as well, they also received a pair of morale boosts over the weekend. Pitcher Nolan McLean was sterling in his MLB debut against the Mariners Saturday, and they hammered Seattle in the Little League Classic Monday. The Reds still are just one game back for the final NL wild-card spot, but manager Carlos Mendoza’s crew has to be in a better mood amid a series against the last-place Nationals.
All that is to say: a postseason without both New York teams seems unlikely. There've been just four such playoffs this century—2008, '13, '14 and '23. While these Yankees may lack the single-minded, top-down seriousness of manager Joe Torre's squads of yore, they are better on paper than Cleveland and Kansas City—the Royals have won five in a row and trail Boston by 2 1/2 games for the final AL wild-card spot. Likewise, the Mets' potent offense should shake pesky Cincinnati.
No AL Central team will qualify for a wild-card spot
Verdict: Fact
As much of a boon as this past weekend was for the Yankees, it was a cataclysm for Cleveland—a team that had looked so good since a 10-game losing streak around the Fourth of July. It's clear the Guardians—a .516 team that should be a .468 one, per Pythagorean winning percentage—are punching above their weight, and the Atlanta series may have let the air out of Cleveland's balloon.
The Guardians actually now trail the Royals, fellow Pythagorean overachievers, by a half game. Like Cleveland, Kansas City has had an up-and-down 2025 after a very good '24. The Royals have dealt with a rash of pitching injuries and were briefly seven games under .500 in early July, but have played themselves back into the wild-card race.
Neither squad seems to have the offensive firepower to overtake the Yankees, Red Sox or Mariners, though—the Royals possess the AL’s worst offense (3.81 runs per game), and the Guardians (3.97) are barely better, outpacing just the Royals and White Sox among AL teams.
Pete Crow-Armstrong will enter the 40–40 club
Verdict: Fiction
Let's do some napkin math here. Appearing in 121 of Chicago's 125 games (a 156-game pace, rounding down), Crow-Armstrong has hit 27 home runs and stolen 30 bases. Therefore, Crow-Armstrong should play around 35 more games, and he would need to hit 13 home runs and steal 10 bases in those games to join the 40-40 club.
Based on his pace to date, Crow-Armstrong would be expected to hit seven home runs and steal nine bases over any given 35-game span. That'd leave the NL's bWAR leader six home runs and one steal short. The Cubs have never had a 40–40 player, and it appears likely that will remain the case. Chicago’s breakout player was on pace to make history for much of this season, but an awful August thus far (zero home runs, one stolen base, .420 OPS) has likely scuttled that possibility.
Are there any between-the-lines numbers hinting at a potential late power or speed explosion for Crow-Armstrong? Chicago does play three games in Denver from Aug. 29–31, along with the Nationals' and Angels' high-ERA staffs (5.33 and 4.69, respectively). Crow-Armstrong doubling his home run pace is a tough ask, however.
Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodríguez will both enter the 30-30 club
Verdict: Fact
Two teams all-time have put teammates in the 30–30 club: the 1987 Mets (infielder Howard Johnson and right fielder Darryl Strawberry) and Colorado in 1996 (outfielders Dante Bichette and Ellis Burks). Both of those teams missed the playoffs, so the Mariners have the chance to cap a special season with a historic feat.
Back to the abacus for this one. Arozarena: 23 homers and 24 steals, pacing for 159 games, his current clip would leave him a home run short. Rodríguez: 24 homers and 23 steals, pacing for 160 games, his current clip would leave him a steal short.
Those are easy margins to make up—easier than those of Crow-Armstrong—and it would almost be a surprise if both players didn't cross the finish line. Where can Arozarena find an extra home run? The soft-tossing Rockies come to town from Sept. 23–25. Who can Rodríguez steal on? Counterintuitively, the Dodgers—third in baseball in wild pitches and in the Evergreen State from Sept. 26–28.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as MLB Fact or Fiction: Which Contenders Will Hold On Down the Stretch?.
