Closing post
Time to wrap up….
Entry-level workers are facing a ‘job-pocalypse’ due to companies favouring artificial intelligence systems over new hires, a new study of global business leaders shows.
..The boss of JP Morgan has warned that a stock market tumble may be approaching.
Water bills for millions of households in England are to increase by even more than expected after the competition regulator gave the green light for five water suppliers to raise charges to customers – but rejected most of the companies’ demands.
Lloyds Banking Group and Close Brothers have both warned that the motor finance scandal is likely to cost them materially more than they had already set aside.
Silver price rises over $50/oz
The silver price has hit its highest level in decades, as the surge of money into precious metals continues.
Spot silver rose over $50 per ounce today for the first time in over 40 years.
Bloomberg reports that it’s the highest level since 1980 when the billionaire Hunt brothers attempted to corner the silver market, with disastrous results.
Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herber Hunt inflated the price of silver by more than 700% after hoarding physical silver and purchasing silver futures contracts, using money accrued from the family oil business, and then borrowing more.
Eventually, they owned a third of all the silver in the world. But the trade turned sour after authorities restricted buying commodities with borrowed monet, prompting the silver price to collapse…
The copper price has hit a 16-month high today, amid fears of shortage of a metal used widely in industry.
Copper rose to $11,000 per metric ton on Thursday, following a series of disruptions to mine supply
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 3.1% to hit the $11,000 mark, near to its all-time peak of $11,104.50, set in May 2024.
Last month, producer Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, after a large flow of wet material blocked access to parts of its underground mine, restricting evacuation routes for seven workers.
Jaguar Land Rover has restarted Range Rover production lines in Solihull, with plans for all its manufacturing sites to be back up and running by the end of next week as it recovers from a major cyber attack.
The carmaker said employees went back to work at the Solihull site in the West Midlands today, following the phased restart of production on Wednesday after being suspended for more than a month due to the hack.
It said the remaining production lines in Solihull, which make the Range Rover Velar SUV and Jaguar F Pace models, will come back on stream next Monday, alongside vehicle manufacturing operations in Halewood, Merseyside, PA Media reports.
Overseas factories in Pune, India, and Brazil are set to follow suit later next week, marking the final sites to resume operations, according to the group.
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There’s a subdued start to trading on Wall Street today.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 20.5 points, or 0.04%, to 46,622.31 at the open, with the broader S&P 500 share index up 0.1%.
Investors hoping for a steer on monetary policy from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell were disappointed – he opened a conference on community banking at the Fed an hour ago, but didn’t commit any news.
Surprising news of the day: Nearly a fifth of employees say they have secretly juggled two competing jobs, or know someone who has.
That’s according to a survey from fraud prevention service Cifas, which also found that 24 of staff think such “polygamous working” is justifiable.
The research published by Cifas involved research among 2,000 employees across different sectors, including HR, engineering, finance and IT.
Nearly 20% of people said they or someone they know had covered employment gaps with bogus references, according to the survey carried out by Opinion Matters in July.
Those who were surveyed were working in companies employing at least 1,000 people with UK operations.
Mike Haley, CEO of Cifas, said:
“Our Workplace Fraud Trends research doesn’t solely reflect individual choices. It reveals systemic blind spots to a whole range of rising threats impacting the workplace – from polygamous working to UK professionals using fraudulent reference houses.”
Ørsted to cut quarter of workforce
Offshore wind farm developer Ørsted is cutting its workforce by a quarter after running into setbacks in the US.
Ørsted has announced it will cut about 2,000 jobs by the end of 2027, and focus more closely on the EU, having faced opposition to offshore wind projects from Donald Trump.
CEO Rasmus Errboe said in a statement today that Ørsted needs to improve its competitiveness, explaining:
“Today, we’ve told our employees that from now and until the end of 2027, we’ll be saying goodbye to many skilled and valued colleagues who’ve contributed greatly to Ørsted.
However, this is a necessary consequence of our decision to focus our business and the fact that we’ll be finalising our large construction portfolio in the coming years – which is why we’ll need fewer employees.
At the same time, we want to create a more efficient and flexible organisation and a more competitive Ørsted, ready to bid on new value-accretive offshore wind projects,”
Burkhard Boeckem, CTO of tech company Hexagon, which has developed an autonomous humanoid robot, argues that humans will be “critical in tomorrow’s job market”, despite the growth in artificial intelligence tools.
Following the BSI’s report today showing the ‘job-pocalypse’ being created by AI, Boeckem says:
“The world is being shaped by rapid technological change, and many businesses are turning to automation and AI to bridge growing skills gaps. To ensure innovation and opportunity evolve in harmony, we must pair these technologies with intentional upskilling and a renewed focus on the human strengths that machines can’t replicate.
“While automation increasingly takes on routine and technical tasks, it also creates space for people to focus on the skills that will matter most in tomorrow’s world. Namely, adaptability, creative problem-solving, as well as the ability to work with intelligent systems. These are precisely what humans do best, and they’ll be critical in tomorrow’s job market.
“All of these skills can be learned and honed, even before people enter the workforce. What’s more, for today’s entry-level workers, cultivating curiosity and a growth mindset can open doors to careers that don’t yet exist, in fields where automation enhances rather than replaces human contribution.
“Take robotics as an example. It’s transforming industries by giving us tools to address society’s biggest challenges, such as improving safety in construction and manufacturing. By investing in learning and adaptability, employees can help shape how automation is used, driving innovation, inclusion, and progress for all of us.”
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Elsewhere in the auto sector, shares in Ferrari have dropped sharply after it scaled back its electric car plans.
In the event at its headquarters in Maranello, Northern Italy, Ferrari revealed the production-ready chassis for its new EV vehicle, the Elettrica.
But it also revealed a less ambitious approach to electrification.
Ferrari is now aiming for a 2030 lineup made up of 40% internal combustion engine (ICE) models, 40% hybrids and 20% fully-electric. This marks a change from its 2022 plan, which had targeted 40% EVs, 40% hybrids and 20% ICE models in 2030, Reuters points out.
Analysts at Citi warned:
“Ferrari’s new 2030 guidance falls below Citi and consensus expectations,”
Ferrari is now planning to grow its revenues to €9bn by 2030, up from €7.1bn forecast for 2025, but lower than expected.
Shares in Ferrari have dropped 13% to their lowest levels since April.
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The European Commission has said it was “concerned” by China’s announcement of new controls on the export of rare-earth technologies and items (see earlier post).
EU trade spokesman Olof Gill told reporters:
“The commission expects China to act as a reliable partner and to ensure stable, predictable access to critical raw materials.”
Close Brothers warns motor finance scandal bill could rise
Newsflash: A second UK lender has warned shareholders that it may face a larger bill than expected from the motor finance scandal.
Close Brothers has told the City that its existing provision, of £165m, may not be sufficent following the compensation scheme announced earlier this week.
Following Lloyds’ announcement this morning, Close Brothers says:
Following publication of the Financial Conduct Authority’s consultation paper on 7 October 2025, Close Brothers (“the group”) is continuing to assess the potential impact and implications of the proposed redress scheme in respect of motor finance commissions.
While uncertainty in relation to the outcome of the consultation remains, the group’s initial assessment is that if implemented in its current form, the proposed scheme is likely to result in a material increase in its existing provision of £165 million. This remains subject to ongoing review of the proposal and analysis of its potential impact on the group.
Shares in Close Brothers have tumbled; they’re now down 10%.
China tightens rare earths export controls again
China has again tightened export controls on rare earths and related technologies ahead of a possible meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.
Beijing said it would add several new rare earth elements to its list of goods with export restrictions including holmium, erbium, thulium, europium and ytterbium.
Previous export controls earlier this year hit the European car industry hard with shortages of magnets for door and boot openings hitting assembly lines among the consequences.
Political leaders in Europe say the fact that China can just impact industry through a “snap of fingers” is alarming.
Kathleen van Brempt, vice president of the European social and democrats trade group in the European Parliament, says:
“This is a new wake-up call for Europe. It concerns raw materials that are crucial for the sustainable and digital transition that the European economy is aiming for. We need them for our batteries, wind turbines, cars, chips, etc. The fact that one country is able to hold a knife to our throat with the snap of a finger is a fundamental problem.”
The move could also be seen as sabre-rattling in Europe as it comes two days after the EU proposed 50% tariffs on foreign steel.
In a further squeeze, the Chinese ministry has also added dozens of pieces of rare processing equipment, something that would limit development of processing outside China.
Foreign entities must now obtain a licence from Beijing to export any products containing more than 0.1% of rare earths, or manufactured using China’s extraction, refining, magnet-making or recycling technology,
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US opens probe into nearly 2.9 million Tesla vehicles over FSD traffic violations
The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is opening an investigation into 2.88 million Tesla vehicles equipped with its Full Self-Driving system over traffic-safety violations after a series of crashes.
The auto safety agency said FSD - an assistance system that requires drivers to pay attention and intervene if needed - has “induced vehicle behavior that violated traffic safety laws“, Reuters reports.
The agency said it has reports of Tesla vehicles driving through red traffic lights and driving against the proper direction of travel during a lane change, while using the system.
NHTSA said it has six reports in which a Tesla vehicle, operating with FSD engaged, “approached an intersection with a red traffic signal, continued to travel into the intersection against the red light and was subsequently involved in a crash with other motor vehicles in the intersection.“
NHTSA said four crashes resulted in one or more injuries.
DRC to start building gold reserve
The Democratic Republic of Congo is planning to join the dash into gold.
The DRC will start building gold reserves to bolster its currency and lift its economy, the central bank governor said today.
Andre Wameso, who was appointed as head of the central bank in July, told Reuters:
“Among the first decisions that I took... was to be able to constitute gold reserves for the central bank alongside the main hard currency, which is the dollar.”
Wameso’s move comes as gold hit fresh record highs over $4,000/ounce this week, as investors drive the ‘debasement trade’":
Wall Street futures are trading marginally in the red today amid growing warnings of bloated AI valuations.
Raffi Boyadjian, lead market analyst at Trading Point, says:
A day after the Bank of England warned about an AI bubble, JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon became the next to talk of a “sharp correction”.
Compensation schemes for Post Office Horizon IT scandal victims ‘to be improved’
Compensation schemes for victims of the Post Office Horizon IT scandal will be improved, with a new appeals process and funded legal advice for post office operators, the government has announced.
Responding to the first part of the findings from a two-year public inquiry into the Horizon IT scandal, regarded as one of the worst miscarriages of justice in UK legal history, the business secretary, Peter Kyle, said there would be anew appeals process for people who have accepted fixed-sum offers under the Horizon Shortfall Scheme, one of several compensation schemes.
Funded legal advice will also be offered. The Post Office will close this scheme on 31 January, to give post office operators who have not yet applied more time to put in applications.
More here:
Mann: high inflation has caused scarring, income uncertainty, and weak consumption growth
The surge of UK inflation in the last few years has “scarred” consumers, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann fears.
Mann is warning in a speech that “the rapid increase in the price level has scarred consumers”, even as inflation has moderated, allowing incomes to rise faster than prices.
She explains that research shows that households who are more uncertain about future inflation become more uncertain about their future incomes. This leads them to save money, rather than spend it, which pulls down consumption.
Thus, she says, the Bank should keep interest rates high to bring inflation down and reassure consumers that price stability is intact, rather than lower borrowing costs to encourage consumption.
As Mann puts it:
In sum, high inflation itself is behind scarring, income uncertainty, and weak consumption growth. Therefore, monetary policy needs to continue to focus on reducing inflation to achieve the environment of price stability.
Then, households can return to their normal consumption-savings behavior which is conducive to stronger consumer demand.
Mann (among the majority of policymakers who voted to leave interest rates hold last month) also warns that “we are not there yet” in bringing down inflation expectations.
She explains:
It is perhaps counterintuitive that in order to create an environment conducive to growth, monetary policy must remain restrictive for longer. But this is necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to our 2% target in the medium term.
My former boss Alan Greenspan (I started my career at the Federal Reserve Board) said it succinctly: “We will be at price stability when households and businesses need not factor expectations of changes in the average level of prices into their decisions.” The evidence from consumer behavior is that we are not there yet.
Updated
Business leaders may be ‘pulling up the ladder’ behind them, by focusing on AI tools rather than taking on new staff, warns Kate Field, global head human and social sustainability at the BSI.
Field explains:
“As roles are streamlined or eliminated before experience can be gained, we risk eroding the professional aspirations of people at the very start of their careers and before they’ve had the chance to flourish.
Our findings suggest a troubling trend: senior leaders may be ‘pulling up the ladder’, prioritizing short-term productivity over long-term workforce resilience. If left unchecked, this could have lasting consequences, from weakening our skills pipeline, deepening generational inequality and our research suggests, dividing large companies and SMEs.
SMEs have been placed in a critical position, shaping the future of work by shouldering the responsibility of training for Gen Z.”
The BSI’s poll of global business leaders also found that large organizations are embracing AI more aggressively compared with SMEs.
It says:
Half (51%) of the respondents working in SMEs say AI is crucial to the growth of their organization, compared with nearly seven in ten respondents in large organizations (69%). This is reflected in its impact being felt; 70% of large businesses reported AI saves money compared to just half of SMEs (51%).
Entry-level workers face ‘job-pocalypse’ due to AI
Entry-level workers are facing a ‘job-pocalypse’ due to companies favouring artificial intelligence systems over new hires, a new study of global business leaders shows.
A new report by the British Standards Institution (BSI) has found that business leaders are prioritising automation through AI to fill skills gaps, in lieu of training for junior employees.
The BSI polled more than 850 bosses in Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and the US, and found that 41% said AI is enabling headcount reductions. Nearly a third of all respondents reported that their organization now explores AI solutions before considering hiring a human.
Two-fifths of leaders revealed that entry-level roles have already been reduced or cut due to efficiencies made by AI conducting research, admin and briefing tasks, and 43% expect this to happen in the next year.
Susan Taylor Martin, CEO of BSI says:
“AI represents an enormous opportunity for businesses globally, but as they chase greater productivity and efficiency, we must not lose sight of the fact that it is ultimately people who power progress.
Our research makes clear that the tension between making the most of AI and enabling a flourishing workforce is the defining challenge of our time. There is an urgent need for long-term thinking and workforce investment, alongside investment in AI tools, to ensure sustainable and productive employment.”
Worryingly for those trying to enter the jobs market, a quarter of business leaders said they believe most or all tasks done by an entry-level colleague could be performed by AI.
A third suspect their own first job would not exist today, due to the rise of artificial intelligence tools.
And… 55% said they felt that the benefits of implementing AI in organizations would be worth the disruptions to workforces.
These findings will add to concerns that graduates face a workforce crisis as they battle AI in the labour market. A poll released in August found that half of UK adults fear AI will change, or eliminate, their jobs.
Telecoms firm BT is replacing about 10,000 jobs with AI systems, as part of a wider workforce reduction programme.
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HSBC drags FTSE 100 down
The London stock market is in the red this morning, pulled down by banking giant HSBC.
The FTSE 100 has dropped by 30 points, or 0.3%, to 9518, a day after hitting a record high.
HSBC has dropped by 6%, after it announced plans to take full control of Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Bank, in which it already owns a controlling shareholding.
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ICAEW: UK business confidence in freefall
UK business confidence has dropped to a three-year low as companies fret about higher taxes, a new poll has shown.
ICAEW’s business sentiment has dropped to -7.3 for the third quarter of 2025, down from -4.2 in April-June.
That’s the fifth consecutive quarterly fall in a row, and the lowest level since the last three months of 2022.
ICAEW explains:
This drop in confidence was likely driven by record high tax concerns squeezing profits growth, recruitment and investment activity.
Muted domestic sales growth also weighed on sentiment, as firms continue to lower their expectations for the year ahead.”
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Lloyds shares drop as additional motor finance costs loom
Shares in Lloyds Bank have dropped by 3.5% at the start of trading in London, after it warned shareholders it could face a larger financial hit from the UK motor finance scandal.
Lloyds told the City this morning that it may need to take an “additional provision” to cover the cost of the issue.
This follows the unveiling of a compensation scheme for motorists who bought cars via discretionary commission deals from 2007 to 2024, which could lead to average payouts of £700.
Lloyds says:
As previously noted, the Group continues to consider the impact and implications of the recently published FCA consultation paper on motor finance. Uncertainties remain outstanding on the interpretation and implementation of the proposals but based on our initial analysis and the characteristics of the proposed scheme, an additional provision is likely to be required which may be material.
This remains subject to ongoing analysis and review of the proposals. The Group will continue to update the market as and when appropriate.”
Lloyds shares have dropped to 84.5p.
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JP Morgan's Dimon warns about risks of US stock market fall
The boss of JP Morgan has joined the choir of experts warning that a stock market tumble may be approaching.
Jamie Dimon has revealed he is concerned that the US stock market is overheated, and cautioned there could be a serious market correction, which he said could come in the next six months to two years.
Speaking to the BBC, Dimon said a “lot of things out there” are creating an atmosphere of uncertainty, such as geopolitical risks, government spending, and the remilitarisation of the world.
Dimon says:
All these things cause a lot of issues that we don’t know how to answer.
So I say the level of uncertainty should be higher in most people’s minds than what I would call normal.”
His comments come as the Bank of England warned of a growing risk of a “sudden correction” in global markets, citing concerns about soaring valuations of leading AI tech companies.
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Table: How water bills will rise
Here’s a table showing the increase to water bills signed off by the CMA, in its “provisional redeterminations on water price controls”.
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Britain’s risk of winter blackouts drops to five year low
From water to energy … and Britain’s risk of winter blackouts has fallen to its lowest level in five years, according to the energy system operator … but it won’t necessarily be affordable.
Forecasts by the National Energy System Operator (Neso) show that electricity supply margins – the amount of generation available above the expected levels of demand – could reach 10% this winter. This would be the healthiest margins since the winter of 2019-2020.
However, the healthier supplies are down to an increase in energy imports, meaning they could be more expensive if international markets demand higher prices.
The Neso report expects margins to be healthier in part due to the start up of the Greenlink interconnector which runs from Pembrokeshire in Wales to County Wexford in Ireland and which will import power when prices are higher in the UK than in Ireland.
The UK’s energy system also has a greater availability of gas plants this winter, after some returned from outage last winter, but this comes as the UK’s gas supply margins shrink to their lowest in four years as the North Sea’s production continues to dwindle.
Neso warned that the UK will need to rely more heavily on imports of gas via liquified natural gas (LNG) tankers, which typically come from the US and Qatar. National Gas, which runs the UK’s gas transmission network, expects the UK’s overall gas demand to be slightly lower this winter but added that it can expect 6% less gas from the UK North Sea this winter compared with last year. Instead, it will increase LNG imports by 7%, it said.
This raises the chance of higher gas costs if the market price continues to rise. In Europe, gas storage levels are slightly lower than in previous winters meaning more LNG imports could be needed in neighbouring markets, too.
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Introduction: UK watchdog rejects 80% of water firms' price hike requests, but....
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Millions of households in England are to be hit with even higher water bill increases than previously planned, under plans being unveiled by the competition regulator this morning.
But the pain isn’t going to be as bad as the water companies had hoped.
The Competitions and Markets Authority has decided to approve around a fifth of spending increases proposed by water companies, on top of existing plans signed off by water regulator Ofwat, which will be funded by increases in bills.
And while it has “largely rejected” companies’ funding requests for new activities and projects, it is provisionally allowing 21% of the total £2.7bn requested by Anglian Water, Northumbrian Water, South East Water, Southern Water, and Wessex Water.
This means they can seek an extra £556m in revenue, which is expected to mean an average increase of 3% in bills for customers of the disputing companies.
That is on top of the 24% increase in bills for customers of these companies under Ofwat’s original determination, which companies had complained was too stingy.
The CMA says this extra money will fund more resilient supply, reduce pollution and also reflect increased financing costs.
Kirstin Baker, who chaired the group which examined the issue, says:
We’ve found that water companies’ requests for significant bill increases, on top of those allowed by Ofwat, are largely unjustified. We understand the real pressure on household budgets and have worked to keep increases to a minimum, while still ensuring there is funding to deliver essential improvements at reasonable cost.
The agenda
7am BST: German trade balance
9.30am BST: Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators from the ONS
9.30am BST: Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann gives keynote speech at Resolution Foundation event
11am BST: Financial Conduct Authority annual public meeting
1.30pm BST: Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell speaks
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