The Los Angeles Chargers are 2.5-point road favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars for Saturday’s Wild Card playoff game, matching the smallest spread of the entire weekend.
With a spread so small and teams so up-and-down, bettors can’t agree on where to put their money.
When it comes to the spread, 57% of betslips and 59% of the handle backs the favored Chargers to cover, according to VSiN. But 57% of moneyline tickets and 62% of that handle is on Jacksonville.
Perhaps the difference is simply due to people chasing the better odds in a toss-up, but it’s also another indication of no clear consensus on this game.
That’s why an injury like the one Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams suffered is such a big deal. Williams is out 2-3 weeks after suffering a fracture in his back in a meaningless Week 18 game he didn’t need to play, ESPN’s Lindsey Thiry reported.
Chargers WR Mike Williams suffered a small non-surgical fracture in his back that was not found in initial X-ray and MRI. After Williams did not progress this week, further tests were ran that revealed the fracture, sources told ESPN. He is expected to miss 2-3 weeks.
— Lindsey Thiry (@LindseyThiry) January 13, 2023
I was riding with the Chargers prior to this news, but Williams’ injury is enough to make me want to jump to the other side.
LA’s defense is atrocious, particularly against the run. After allowing 181 rushing yards to the Cardinals in Week 12, a players-only meeting was called to address their league-worst run defense that was allowing an astronomical 5.4 yards per carry. Nothing has changed since.
The Chargers continued to allow 5.4 yards per carry through the end of the season, and now they get set to play a Jaguars team that ran for 151 yards in a 28-point win over LA in Week 3 before. And that was before stud running Travis Etienne was a big feature in the offense. That was also before Trevor Lawrence caught fire.
Suffice to say, there’s a chance the Chargers defense struggles to slow the Jags, which puts the pressure on Justin Herbert and the offense to respond without much of their own running game to speak of. They’ll be airing it out a lot, and that becomes a lot harder with their leading receiver on the sideline.
In their first game against Jacksonville, which Keenan Allen missed, Williams was held in check and Herbert was forced to throw to guys like Josh Palmer, DeAndre Carter, tight end Gerald Everett, and of course running back Austin Ekeler.
If the Jaguars can similarly key on and eliminate Allen the way they did Williams, those secondary targets will have to step up big time. I’m not saying they’re incapable, but the guys on the other side are starting to feel like a better bet.
